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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil GDP Growth Rate YoY held to 1.8% in January 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased May 2026
Brazil GDP Growth Rate YoY held to 1.8% in January 2026, released May 2026. The reading matched the 1.8% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.8%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 45 months.
Latest Release
1.8
Actual
1.8
Consensus
1.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.95
Actual: 1.8
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish BRL | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Brazil) was reported at 1.8% in May 2026. This matched the market consensus of 1.8% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.8%, down from the prior three at 2.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17) and CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - BR
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Brazil
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 1.8 %, consensus 1.8 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 1.8 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 1.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.