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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 2.0% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased September 2026
Brazil GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 2.0% in April 2026, released September 2026, up 0.2% from March's 1.8% reading. The print exceeded the 1.8% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.62%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the highest in 9 months.
Latest Release
2
Actual
1.8
Consensus
1.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 1.8
Actual: 2
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Brazil) was reported at 2% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.8% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.87%, down from the prior three at 2.3%. In September readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 2.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Oct 6) and Inflation Rate MoM (Oct 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - BR
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Brazil
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2 %, consensus 1.8 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 1.8 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 1.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, October 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Composite PMI | 47.4 | 49.1 | 48.5 | 47.95 | Low |
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Services PMI | 49.2 | 50.5 | 49.9 | 49.55 | Medium |
| Tuesday, October 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 18:00 | BR | Balance of Trade | 7.39 | 7.19 | 7.19 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, October 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:00 | BR | Auto Production MoM | 6.8 | -3 | -3.00 | Low | |
| 13:00 | BR | New Car Sales MoM | -1.6 | -2 | 1.10 | Low | |