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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Gross Domestic Product QoQ climbed to 1.1% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Brazil Gross Domestic Product QoQ climbed to 1.1% in Q1 2026, released May 2026, up 0.8% from December's 0.3% reading. The print exceeded the 1.0% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.4%. Gross Domestic Product QoQ is now the highest in 8 months.
Latest Release
1.1
Actual
1
Consensus
0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1
Actual: 1.1
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish BRL | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product QoQ (Brazil) was reported at 1.1% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.43%, down from the prior three at 0.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Watch). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17) and CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product QoQ - BR
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About Gross Domestic Product QoQ — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's Gross Domestic Product QoQ rose 1.100000% in Q1 2026, beating the 1.000000% estimate. This marks a sharp acceleration from Q4 2025's 0.300000%, signaling stronger economic expansion. Market focus now shifts to upcoming inflation data and central bank policy adjustments. Updated 5/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 1.1 %, consensus 1 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 0.1 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.