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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Gross Domestic Product YoY held to 1.8% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Brazil Gross Domestic Product YoY held to 1.8% in January 2026, released May 2026. The reading matched the 1.8% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.65%. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the lowest in 14 months.
Latest Release
1.8
Actual
1.8
Consensus
1.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.05 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.8
Actual: 1.8
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Brazil) was reported at 1.8% in May 2026. This matched the market consensus of 1.8% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.8%, down from the prior three at 2.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Watch). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.05%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - BR
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's Gross Domestic Product YoY held steady at 1.800000% in May 2026, matching both estimates and the previous reading from March 2026. The economy maintained the same growth rate since December 2025, indicating a persistent moderate expansion. Market participants will focus on upcoming data releases for signs of acceleration or further stagnation. Updated 5/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 1.8 %, consensus 1.8 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 1.8 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 1.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/BRL (Bullish BRL, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | BR | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 81.9 | 81.1 | 81.5 | 81.70 | Medium |
| 11:30 | BR | Nominal Budget Balance | -166 | -163.679 | -133.2 | -149.60 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Budget Balance | -166 | -163.679 | -133.2 | -149.60 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 81.9 | 81.1 | 81.5 | 81.70 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.51 | 2 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.77 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -0.14 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.8 | 49.7 | 51.25 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | BR | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | 0.18 | 0.4 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production YoY | 0.2 | -0.8 | -0.80 | Low | |