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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Industrial Production MoM fell to -0.6% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Brazil Industrial Production MoM fell to -0.6% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 0.7% from July's 0.1% reading. The reading missed the 0.1% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.08%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged -0.8%, vs 0.4% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 14th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.6
Actual
0.1
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.39 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -0.4
Actual: -0.6
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Brazil) was reported at -0.6% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.03%, ranging from -1.8% to 1.8% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.73%, down from the prior three at 1.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.99%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.59%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged 0.1%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.39%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Oct 9) and Inflation Rate YoY (Oct 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - BR
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About Industrial Production MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -0.6 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -1.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.60) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | BR | New Car Sales MoM | 2.3 | -1.6 | -2 | 0.15 | Low |
| 13:00 | BR | Auto Production MoM | -1.1 | 6.8 | -3 | -2.05 | Low |
| Friday, October 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | -0.32 | 0.73 | 0.68 | Medium |
| 12:00 | BR | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.47 | 4.22 | 4.5 | 4.45 | Medium |