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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Industrial Production MoM fell to -1.8% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Brazil Industrial Production MoM fell to -1.8% in June 2026, released August 2026, down 0.9% from May's -0.9% reading. The reading missed the -0.8% consensus by 1.0%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.23%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged 0.4%, vs 1.35% in the prior 3-month window. Industrial Production MoM is now the lowest in 39 months.
Latest Release
-1.8
Actual
-0.8
Consensus
-0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.39 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -0.65
Actual: -1.8
Error: +1.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Brazil) was reported at -1.8% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.8% by 1%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.07%, ranging from -1.8% to 1.8% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.07%, down from the prior three at 0.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.72%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged 0.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.39%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Unemployment Rate (Aug 27) and Gross Domestic Product MoM (Aug 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - BR
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About Industrial Production MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -1.8 %, consensus -0.8 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.7 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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