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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.32% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased November 2026
Brazil Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.32% in October 2026, released November 2026, down 0.5% from September's 0.82% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.7% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.39%. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.27%, vs 0.27% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 44th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.32
Actual
0.7
Consensus
0.82
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.08 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Nov 2026
Predicted: 0.69
Actual: 0.32
Error: +0.37
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate MoM (Brazil) was reported at 0.32% in November 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.7% by 0.38%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.82%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through November 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.33%, ranging from -0.32% to 0.82% across 13 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.49%, up from the prior three at -0.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.3%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.33%). In November readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.08%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Oct 30) and BCB Focus Market Readout (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update November 2026.
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Inflation Rate MoM - BR
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About Inflation Rate MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in a given economy from one month to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and provides insight into the rate at which prices are rising or falling, which can impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 0.32 %, consensus 0.7 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 0.7 %. Before that (Aug 2026): -0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.45) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | 1.47 | 1.57 | 1.6 | 1.54 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |
| 18:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |