Brazil’s inflation rate MoM for November 2025 registered at 0.09%, a marked slowdown from October’s 0.48% and below the consensus estimate of 0.16% according to the Sigmanomics database. This figure represents a significant moderation from the early 2025 peak of 1.31% in March, signaling easing inflationary pressures in the Brazilian economy.

Drivers this month

• Energy prices stabilized after months of volatility, contributing 0.02 pp.
• Food inflation slowed sharply, subtracting -0.03 pp from the monthly rate.
• Core services inflation remained steady, adding 0.05 pp.

Policy pulse

The current inflation rate sits below the Central Bank of Brazil’s target midpoint of 3.50% annualized, suggesting room for a cautious pause in monetary tightening. However, the central bank remains vigilant given lingering supply chain risks and currency fluctuations.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The BRL/USD exchange rate stabilized near 5.10 post-release, while 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, reflecting tempered inflation expectations.

Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the inflation print. Brazil’s GDP growth slowed to an annualized 1.20% in Q3 2025, down from 1.80% in Q2, reflecting weaker domestic demand. Unemployment held steady at 8.30%, while wage growth moderated to 3.10% YoY. The Selic rate currently stands at 13.75%, unchanged since September, reflecting the central bank’s cautious stance amid mixed inflation signals.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Central Bank’s hawkish tone earlier this year helped temper inflation from the 1.31% MoM spike in March. Financial conditions tightened, with credit spreads widening and consumer borrowing slowing. The recent inflation moderation may reduce pressure for further rate hikes, but persistent fiscal deficits and currency volatility remain concerns.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Brazil’s fiscal deficit widened slightly to 5.10% of GDP in Q3 2025, driven by higher social spending and subdued tax revenues. The government’s commitment to fiscal consolidation remains uncertain, which could weigh on inflation expectations if deficits persist.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global commodity prices, especially oil and agricultural products, have stabilized but remain vulnerable to geopolitical tensions in Latin America and supply disruptions. The BRL’s sensitivity to external shocks underscores the risk of imported inflation spikes.

Historical comparisons show November’s inflation is the lowest since February 2025 (0.16%) and significantly below the March peak. The negative reading in September was an outlier driven by temporary supply improvements and base effects. The current print aligns with a broader global trend of easing inflation pressures as commodity prices stabilize and monetary policies tighten.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The BRL/USD currency pair showed mild appreciation post-release, reflecting relief over the slower inflation pace. Government bond yields, particularly the 2-year note, declined modestly, signaling reduced inflation risk premiums.

Looking ahead, Brazil’s inflation trajectory depends on several factors. The baseline scenario projects inflation MoM stabilizing around 0.10%–0.20% in the near term, supported by continued monetary restraint and easing commodity prices. However, upside and downside risks remain pronounced.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Global commodity prices fall sharply, reducing input costs.
• Fiscal consolidation gains traction, improving market confidence.
• Inflation dips below 3% YoY, allowing rate cuts by mid-2026.

Base scenario (55% probability)

• Inflation remains stable near current levels, around 0.10%–0.20% MoM.
• Monetary policy holds steady, balancing growth and price stability.
• BRL remains range-bound amid moderate external volatility.

Bearish scenario (25% probability)

• Supply shocks or fiscal slippage reignite inflation pressures.
• Currency depreciation fuels imported inflation, pushing MoM above 0.50%.
• Central bank forced to resume tightening, risking growth slowdown.

Overall, the inflation print suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook but underscores the need for prudent fiscal and monetary coordination to sustain gains.

Brazil’s November 2025 inflation MoM figure of 0.09% signals a meaningful slowdown from recent months and a return to more manageable price growth. The data from the Sigmanomics database confirms that inflationary pressures are easing but remain above historical lows. The interplay of monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and external factors will be critical in shaping the inflation path going forward.

Investors and policymakers should monitor commodity markets, fiscal developments, and currency movements closely. The balance of risks suggests that while disinflation is underway, vulnerabilities remain that could disrupt the fragile stability.

Red links to tradable symbols relevant to Brazil’s inflation dynamics:

• VALE – Brazilian mining giant, sensitive to commodity price shifts impacting inflation.
• USDBRL – The USD/BRL exchange rate directly influences imported inflation and monetary policy.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s role as an alternative asset reflects broader market sentiment amid inflation uncertainty.
• ITUB – Major Brazilian bank, impacted by interest rate changes and credit conditions.
• EURBRL – Euro to BRL exchange rate, relevant for trade and inflation via import prices.

Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM

Brazil’s inflation data typically influences several key markets. The currency pairs USDBRL and EURBRL are highly sensitive to inflation surprises, as they affect import costs and monetary policy expectations. Stocks like VALE and ITUB respond to inflation through commodity prices and interest rate impacts on credit. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) often reflects broader risk sentiment shifts tied to inflation uncertainty.

• VALE – Commodity price sensitivity.
• USDBRL – Currency impact on inflation and trade.
• BTCUSD – Risk sentiment and inflation hedge.
• ITUB – Banking sector exposure to rates and credit.
• EURBRL – Trade and import price channel.

Extras: Inflation Rate MoM vs. USDBRL Since 2020

This table highlights the close correlation between Brazil’s monthly inflation rate and the USD/BRL exchange rate. Periods of higher inflation generally coincide with BRL depreciation, underscoring the currency’s role in imported inflation dynamics.

FAQs

What is the current Inflation Rate MoM for Brazil?

The latest inflation rate MoM for Brazil is 0.09% as of November 2025, indicating a slowdown from previous months.

How does the Inflation Rate MoM affect Brazil’s monetary policy?

Lower inflation readings reduce pressure on the Central Bank to raise interest rates, potentially stabilizing monetary policy.

What are the risks to Brazil’s inflation outlook?

Risks include fiscal slippage, currency depreciation, and external commodity shocks that could reignite inflation pressures.

Takeaway: Brazil’s November inflation MoM print signals easing price pressures but demands continued policy vigilance amid fiscal and external uncertainties.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Updated 11/13/25