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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil New Car Registrations MoM climbed to 8.6% in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Brazil New Car Registrations MoM climbed to 8.6% in February 2026, released March 2026, up 47.6% from January's -39.0% reading. The reading missed the 12.0% consensus by 3.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -1.22%. Over the past 3 months, New Car Registrations MoM averaged -9.73%, vs 1.54% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 73rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
8.6
Actual
12
Consensus
-39
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8.14 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 8.2
Actual: 8.6
Error: -0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.73 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.64 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Car Registrations MoM (Brazil) was reported at 8.6% in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of 12% by 3.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of -39%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.61%, ranging from -39% to 17.1% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -4.43%, down from the prior three at 2.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 16.19%) is higher than the prior year (σ 11.58%). In March readings over the past 3 years, New Car Registrations MoM has averaged 6.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/BRL, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8.14%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17) and CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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New Car Registrations MoM - BR
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About New Car Registrations MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
New Car Registrations MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the number of newly registered cars in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator is used to track the current demand for new cars in a specific market and can provide insights into consumer spending and economic trends. It is often used by analysts and investors to assess the health of the automotive industry and make informed decisions regarding investments in related companies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 8.6 %, consensus 12 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): -39 %. Before that (Dec 2025): 17.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.73) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.