Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Producer Price Index MoM climbed to 1.54% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Brazil Producer Price Index MoM climbed to 1.54% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1.2% from August's 0.34% reading. The print exceeded the 0.5% consensus by 1.04%. Producer Price Index MoM has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index MoM averaged -0.41%, vs 1.17% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 87th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.54
Actual
0.5
Consensus
0.34
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.69 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.38
Actual: 1.54
Error: -1.16
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index MoM (Brazil) was reported at 1.54% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.5% by 1.04%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.34%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.22%, ranging from -0.83% to 2.63% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.36%, down from the prior three at 0.52%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.04%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.73%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.69%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Oct 30) and BCB Focus Market Readout (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Producer Price Index MoM - BR
Loading chart data...
About Producer Price Index MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's Producer Price Index MoM rose 1.540000% in October, sharply beating the 0.500000% estimate. This marks a significant acceleration from September's 0.360000%, indicating a strong upward trend in producer prices. The surge may influence market expectations and central bank policy ahead of upcoming inflation data. Updated 10/27/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 1.54 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.36 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -0.83 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa, r=0.44) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | 1.47 | 1.57 | 1.6 | 1.54 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |
| 18:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |