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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Producer Price Index MoM fell to -0.83% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Brazil Producer Price Index MoM fell to -0.83% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.02% from June's -0.81% reading. The reading missed the -0.6% consensus by 0.23%. Producer Price Index MoM has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index MoM averaged -0.54%, vs 1.78% in the prior 3-month window. Producer Price Index MoM is now the lowest in 11 months.
Latest Release
-0.83
Actual
-0.6
Consensus
-0.81
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.57 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -1.44
Actual: -0.83
Error: -0.61
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index MoM (Brazil) was reported at -0.83% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.6% by 0.23%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.81%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.02%, ranging from -0.83% to 2.63% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.63%, down from the prior three at 1.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.99%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.78%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.57%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Producer Price Index MoM - BR
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About Producer Price Index MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's Producer Price Index MoM for August registered -0.830000%, missing the estimate of -0.600000%. This marks a deeper contraction compared to July's -0.770000%, indicating accelerating deflationary pressure in producer prices. The persistent decline may influence market expectations ahead of upcoming inflation data and central bank policy decisions. Updated 8/28/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.83 %, consensus -0.6 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.77 %. Before that (May 2026): -0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| 17:30 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.70 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |