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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Producer Price Index MoM fell to -0.77% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Brazil Producer Price Index MoM fell to -0.77% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.47% from May's -0.3% reading. The reading missed the 0.5% consensus by 1.27%. Producer Price Index MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index MoM averaged 1.17%, vs 0.94% in the prior 3-month window. Producer Price Index MoM is now the lowest in 10 months.
Latest Release
-0.77
Actual
0.5
Consensus
-0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.41 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2.22
Actual: -0.3
Error: +2.51
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index MoM (Brazil) was reported at -0.77% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.5% by 1.27%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.02%, ranging from -1.25% to 2.63% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.89%, up from the prior three at -0.24%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.42%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Producer Price Index MoM - BR
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About Producer Price Index MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's Producer Price Index MoM for July fell by -0.770000%, missing the 0.500000% estimate and declining from June's -0.300000%. This marks a deeper contraction in producer prices, signaling continued downward pressure on input costs. Market focus will remain on upcoming inflation data and central bank policy amid persistent disinflation. Updated 7/31/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.77 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (May 2026): -0.3 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.63 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | BR | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 81.9 | 81.1 | 81.5 | 81.70 | Medium |
| 11:30 | BR | Nominal Budget Balance | -166 | -163.679 | -133.2 | -149.60 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Budget Balance | -166 | -163.679 | -133.2 | -149.60 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 81.9 | 81.1 | 81.5 | 81.70 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.51 | 2 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.77 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -0.14 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.8 | 49.7 | 51.25 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | BR | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | 0.18 | 0.4 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production YoY | 0.2 | -0.8 | -0.80 | Low | |