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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Producer Price Index YoY fell to 1.94% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Brazil Producer Price Index YoY fell to 1.94% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.53% from June's 2.47% reading. The reading missed the 2.3% consensus by 0.36%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.79%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 2.25%, vs -2.32% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 53rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.94
Actual
2.3
Consensus
2.47
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.42 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 2.1
Actual: 1.94
Error: +0.16
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Brazil) was reported at 1.94% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.3% by 0.36%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.47%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1.05%, ranging from -4.53% to 2.51% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.15%, up from the prior three at -2.58%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.8%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 3.09%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.42%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - BR
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's Producer Price Index YoY came in at 1.940%, missing the 2.300% estimate for August. This marks a decline from July's 2.510%, indicating a slowdown in producer price inflation. The softer reading may influence market expectations ahead of upcoming central bank policy decisions. Updated 8/28/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1.94 %, consensus 2.3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 2.51 %. Before that (May 2026): 1.99 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/BRL (Bearish USD, r=-0.40) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| 17:30 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.70 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |