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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 4.34% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Brazil Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 4.34% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1.84% from August's 2.5% reading. The print exceeded the 2.7% consensus by 1.64%. Producer Price Index YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 2.33%, vs 1.53% in the prior 3-month window. Producer Price Index YoY is now the highest in 14 months.
Latest Release
4.34
Actual
2.7
Consensus
2.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.42 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 2.73
Actual: 4.34
Error: -1.61
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Brazil) was reported at 4.34% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.7% by 1.64%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.38%, ranging from -4.53% to 4.34% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.94%, up from the prior three at 1.86%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.2%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.6%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.42%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Oct 30) and BCB Focus Market Readout (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - BR
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil's Producer Price Index YoY surged to 4.340% in October, well above the 2.7% estimate and up from September's 2.53%. This sharp acceleration signals rising inflationary pressures in the producer sector after months of moderate gains. Market participants will closely watch upcoming inflation data and central bank responses amid this unexpected jump. Updated 10/27/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 4.34 %, consensus 2.7 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 2.53 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 1.94 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | 1.47 | 1.57 | 1.6 | 1.54 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |
| 18:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |