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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Retail Sales MoM climbed to 0.1% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Brazil Retail Sales MoM climbed to 0.1% in May 2026, released July 2026, up 1.7% from April's -1.6% reading. The reading missed the 0.5% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.03%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged -0.5%, vs 0.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
0.5
Consensus
-1.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.5 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.4
Actual: 0.1
Error: +0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (Brazil) was reported at 0.1% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.5% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.01%, ranging from -1.5% to 1% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.3%, down from the prior three at 0.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.63%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.51%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales MoM has averaged 0.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.5%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jul 31) and Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - BR
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About Retail Sales MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.1 %, consensus 0.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -1.5 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | -1.16 | -0.5 | -1.09 | -1.13 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Unemployment Rate | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Medium |