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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Retail Sales MoM fell to 0.5 in March 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Brazil Retail Sales MoM fell to 0.5 in March 2026, released May 2026, down 0.2 from February's 0.7 reading. The print exceeded the 0.0 consensus by 0.5. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.15. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged 0.2, vs 0.75 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 67th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0
Consensus
0.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.43 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 0
Actual: 0.4
Error: -0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | INDEX | Bearish Bovespa | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
The May 2026 reading fell from the previous value of 0.7. Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmanomics model has produced a median absolute forecast error of ±0.43. Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa) and negatively correlated with USD/BRL (Bearish USD).
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Retail Sales MoM - BR
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Friday, May 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 47.2 | 45.2 | 46 | 46.60 | Medium |
| Monday, May 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Low | |
| Tuesday, May 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Low | |