Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Retail Sales YoY climbed to 2.9% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Brazil Retail Sales YoY climbed to 2.9% in June 2026, released August 2026, up 2.5% from May's 0.4% reading. The print exceeded the 2.4% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.3%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 0.7%, vs 2.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 69th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.9
Actual
2.4
Consensus
0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.88 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 1.95
Actual: 2.9
Error: -0.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Brazil) was reported at 2.9% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.4% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.7%, ranging from 0.4% to 4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.43%, down from the prior three at 3.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.16%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.12%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales YoY has averaged 2.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Bovespa, negatively correlated (Bearish Bovespa). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.88%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
Retail Sales YoY - BR
Loading chart data...
About Retail Sales YoY — Brazil
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 2.9 %, consensus 2.4 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.4 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.51) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| 17:30 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM | -0.5 | 1.3 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |