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Retail Sales YoY fell to 0.2 in February 2026, down 2.5 from January's 2.7 reading. The reading missed the 1.2 consensus by 1.0. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.45. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 2.13, vs 0.95 in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales YoY is now the lowest in 10 months.
The April 2026 reading fell from the previous value of 2.7. Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR) and negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC).
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| Tuesday, May 12, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.67 | 0.88 | 0.7 | 0.72 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.39 | 4.14 | 4.41 | 4.42 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | CPI YoY | 4.39 | 4.14 | 4.41 | 4.40 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | CPI MoM | 0.67 | 0.88 | 0.7 | 0.69 | Low | |
| Wednesday, May 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | Retail Sales YoY | 0.2 | 2.8 | 2.80 | Low | ||
| 12:00 | Retail Sales MoM | 0.6 | 0 | 0.00 | Medium | ||