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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Retail Sales YoY fell to 0.4% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Brazil Retail Sales YoY fell to 0.4% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 0.6% from April's 1.0% reading. The reading missed the 1.2% consensus by 0.8%. Retail Sales YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 2.5%, vs 1.77% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 17th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
1.2
Consensus
1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.83 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1.26
Actual: 0.4
Error: +0.86
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Brazil) was reported at 0.4% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.2% by 0.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.4%, ranging from 0.3% to 4% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.8%, down from the prior three at 2.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.11%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.95%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales YoY has averaged 3.53%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.83%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - BR
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About Retail Sales YoY — Brazil
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 1.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 1 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa, r=-0.40) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | BR | Gross Domestic Product MoM | 81.9 | 81.1 | 81.5 | 81.70 | Medium |
| 11:30 | BR | Nominal Budget Balance | -166 | -163.679 | -133.2 | -149.60 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Budget Balance | -166 | -163.679 | -133.2 | -149.60 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 81.9 | 81.1 | 81.5 | 81.70 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Producer Price Index YoY | 2.51 | 2 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.77 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -0.14 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.8 | 49.7 | 51.25 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | BR | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | 0.18 | 0.4 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production YoY | 0.2 | -0.8 | -0.80 | Low | |