The Belarusian economy continues to show moderate growth, with the latest GDP YoY at 1.50%, marking a slight deceleration from the 1.60% recorded in October 2025. This figure remains well below the 2025 average of approximately 2.10%, reflecting ongoing structural challenges and external pressures. The subdued growth pace contrasts with the stronger expansions seen earlier in the year, such as 3.10% in April and 2.80% in May.

Drivers this month

• Manufacturing output slowed amid supply chain disruptions.
• Energy exports remained stable but faced price volatility.
• Domestic consumption growth softened due to inflationary pressures.

Policy pulse

The GDP growth rate remains below the central bank’s inflation target zone, signaling limited overheating risks but also constrained economic momentum. Monetary policy remains cautiously accommodative, balancing inflation control with growth support.

Market lens

Following the GDP release, the Belarusian ruble (BYN) depreciated marginally against the US dollar, reflecting investor caution. Short-term government bond yields edged higher by 5 basis points, indicating a modest repricing of growth risks.

Core macroeconomic indicators provide a nuanced view of Belarus’s economic health. Inflation remains elevated at 8.30% YoY, pressuring real incomes and consumption. Unemployment holds steady at 5.20%, while industrial production growth slowed to 0.90% YoY in October. Export volumes have been volatile, influenced by geopolitical tensions and commodity price swings.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The National Bank of Belarus has maintained its key policy rate at 12%, aiming to anchor inflation expectations without stifling growth. Credit growth has decelerated to 4.50% YoY, reflecting tighter lending standards amid uncertain demand.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with a 2025 budget deficit projected at 3.80% of GDP. Increased public investment in infrastructure and social programs supports demand but raises concerns about debt sustainability.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Ongoing geopolitical tensions with neighboring countries and sanctions have constrained trade flows and foreign investment. Energy price volatility, especially in oil and gas, poses additional risks to export revenues and fiscal balances.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: BYN/USD weakened by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose by 7 basis points, signaling increased risk aversion among investors.

Looking ahead, Belarus’s GDP growth faces a mix of headwinds and potential tailwinds. The baseline scenario projects growth stabilizing around 1.50%–1.70% in early 2026, assuming moderate easing of geopolitical tensions and steady commodity prices.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Improved trade relations and sanctions relief boost exports.
• Monetary easing stimulates credit and investment.
• Energy prices stabilize, supporting fiscal revenues.
• GDP growth accelerates to 2.50%+ by mid-2026.

Base scenario (60% probability)

• Geopolitical risks persist but do not escalate.
• Monetary and fiscal policies remain balanced.
• GDP growth holds steady near 1.50%–1.70%.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Sanctions intensify, disrupting trade and investment.
• Energy price shocks reduce export earnings.
• Inflation spikes, eroding real incomes.
• GDP growth falls below 1%, risking recession.

Policy pulse

Monetary authorities are likely to maintain a cautious stance, balancing inflation control with growth support. Fiscal policy may tighten if external pressures worsen, limiting stimulus capacity.

Belarus’s GDP growth in November 2025 signals a moderate slowdown amid persistent external and domestic challenges. While the economy avoids contraction, growth remains below earlier 2025 levels and the regional average. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act amid inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty. Market sentiment reflects cautious optimism, with the Belarusian ruble and bond yields adjusting to the subdued growth outlook. Investors should monitor geopolitical developments, commodity prices, and policy signals closely in the coming months.

Key Markets Likely to React to Gross Domestic Product YoY

The Belarus GDP YoY figure influences several key markets, including currency, fixed income, and equities. The Belarusian ruble (BYN) typically reacts to growth data through exchange rate adjustments. Government bonds reflect changing risk perceptions, while select stocks and commodities linked to Belarus’s export sectors also track GDP trends.

• BYNUSD – Currency pair sensitive to Belarus economic data and monetary policy.
• MTZ.BY – Belarus tractor manufacturer, correlated with industrial output and GDP.
• BELU.BY – Utility sector stock, sensitive to domestic consumption trends.
• BYNTUSD – Belarusian token reflecting local economic sentiment.
• EURBYN – Euro to Belarusian ruble, impacted by trade and geopolitical factors.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the Belarus GDP YoY figure indicate?

The GDP YoY figure measures the annual growth rate of Belarus’s economy, reflecting overall economic health and momentum.

How does GDP growth affect Belarus’s currency?

Stronger GDP growth tends to support the Belarusian ruble by improving investor confidence and trade balances, while slower growth can weaken it.

What are the main risks to Belarus’s economic growth?

Key risks include geopolitical tensions, sanctions, commodity price volatility, and domestic inflationary pressures.

Key takeaway: Belarus’s GDP growth is moderating amid external and internal challenges, requiring vigilant policy and market monitoring to navigate upcoming risks.

Sources

1. Sigmanomics database, Belarus GDP YoY releases, 2025.
2. National Bank of Belarus, Monetary Policy Reports, 2025.
3. Belarus Ministry of Finance, Budget Statements, 2025.
4. International Energy Agency, Commodity Price Reports, 2025.
5. World Bank, Belarus Economic Overview, 2025.