Belarus Industrial Production YoY: January’s Sharpest Decline Since Mid-2023
Belarus’s industrial sector posted its largest year-over-year contraction in over half a year, with January’s output down 3.4% compared to the same month last year. The latest data, released February 16, signals mounting headwinds for the country’s manufacturing and extractive industries.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers This Month
- Manufacturing: -1.6 percentage points
- Mining & Quarrying: -0.9pp
- Electricity, Gas & Steam: -0.6pp
- Water Supply: -0.3pp
Policy Pulse
January’s -3.4% YoY reading diverges sharply from the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus’s stabilization targets. The central bank’s preferred range remains near zero or modest growth, underscoring the severity of the current downturn.
Market Lens
BYN-denominated assets saw muted trading, with risk appetite subdued after the release. Investors remain cautious, as persistent industrial weakness weighs on broader economic sentiment and raises questions about the sustainability of recent fiscal measures.Foundational Indicators
Historical Context
- January 2026: -3.4% YoY
- December 2025: -1.8% YoY
- November 2025: -1.7% YoY
- October 2025: -0.8% YoY
- September 2025: -0.8% YoY
- August 2025: -0.3% YoY
- July 2025: 0.3% YoY
- June 2025: 1.0% YoY
Comparative Analysis
The January print marks a 1.6 percentage point deterioration from December and a 4.4pp swing from June’s last positive reading. The 12-month average now stands at -0.9%, highlighting the deepening contraction.
Sectoral Breakdown
- Manufacturing output: down 2.1% YoY
- Mining: down 1.2% YoY
- Utilities: down 0.7% YoY
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario Analysis
- Bullish: Output stabilizes near -1% YoY by March (20–25% probability), driven by targeted fiscal support and modest export recovery.
- Base: Contraction persists between -2% and -3% YoY through Q1 (55–60% probability), as weak demand and energy costs weigh on production.
- Bearish: Decline deepens below -4% YoY (15–20% probability) if external shocks or supply disruptions intensify.
Risks and Catalysts
- Upside: Easing input costs, improved trade flows
- Downside: Geopolitical tensions, further export restrictions
Methodology & Source
Data sourced from the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus and Sigmanomics database[1]. Year-over-year calculations compare monthly output to the same month in the prior year, seasonally adjusted.
Closing Thoughts
Market Lens
Local equities and BYN currency pairs traded sideways, reflecting investor caution. The persistent contraction in industrial output has tempered risk appetite, with market participants awaiting clearer signals from policymakers and external trade partners.Key Takeaways
- January’s -3.4% YoY print is the weakest since June 2023.
- Six straight months of contraction signal entrenched industrial headwinds.
- Policy and external catalysts will be crucial for any near-term stabilization.
Key Markets Reacting to Industrial Production YoY
Industrial production data from Belarus has ripple effects across regional equities, currency pairs, and select global assets. Market participants track these releases for signals on economic momentum, credit risk, and cross-border trade flows. The following symbols have shown sensitivity to shifts in Belarusian industrial output:
- AAPL — Global supply chain exposure, indirect impact via Eastern European component sourcing.
- EURUSD — Eurozone trade linkages, currency flows react to regional industrial trends.
- BTCUSD — Crypto flows sometimes rise during regional economic stress, reflecting hedging demand.
| Year | BY Industrial Production YoY | EURUSD Direction |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -0.7% | Down |
| 2022 | -2.5% | Flat |
| 2024 | +0.9% | Up |
| 2026 (Jan) | -3.4% | Down |
Periods of deepening contraction in Belarusian industrial output have coincided with weaker EURUSD, reflecting risk-off sentiment and regional growth concerns.
FAQ
- What does the latest Belarus Industrial Production YoY data show?
- January 2026 industrial production in Belarus fell 3.4% year-over-year, marking the sharpest contraction since June 2023 and extending a six-month decline.
- How does this contraction compare to recent months?
- The January figure is 1.6 percentage points lower than December’s -1.8%, and 4.4pp below June’s last positive reading of 1.0%.
- What is the focus keyword for this report?
- Industrial Production YoY Belarus
Belarus’s industrial sector faces its steepest contraction in over half a year, with broad-based declines and persistent downside risks.
Updated 2/16/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Belarus Industrial Production YoY database, accessed 2/16/26
- National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus, official releases, January 2026
January’s -3.4% YoY reading marks a sharp acceleration in contraction from December’s -1.8% and stands well below the 12-month average of -0.9%. The last time the index saw a steeper drop was June 2023, when output fell by a similar margin.
Industrial production has now declined for six consecutive months, with the pace of contraction intensifying since November’s -1.3% print. The trend signals broad-based weakness, with no major sector showing resilience.