BY Industrial Production YoY: November 2025 Release and Macro Implications
Key Takeaways: The latest Industrial Production YoY for BY declined to -1.30%, missing the -0.80% estimate and marking a deeper contraction than the previous -0.80%. This signals ongoing industrial weakness amid tightening financial conditions and geopolitical tensions. The trend reversal from positive growth in early 2025 to sustained contraction raises concerns about BY’s growth trajectory. Monetary policy remains cautious, while fiscal support is limited. External shocks and market sentiment add downside risks, though structural reforms offer a potential medium-term uplift.
Table of Contents
The November 2025 Industrial Production YoY figure for BY registered a -1.30% decline, according to the Sigmanomics database, marking a sharper contraction than the -0.80% recorded in October and the same estimate. This is the lowest reading since August 2024, when production last contracted by -1.50%. The downward trend contrasts with the positive growth seen in the first half of 2025, where the indicator peaked at 2.10% in April.
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing output fell by 2.10%, driven by weaker demand in machinery and metals sectors.
- Energy production contracted 0.90%, reflecting lower domestic consumption and export challenges.
- Mining output stabilized but remained below year-ago levels, contributing marginally to the decline.
Policy pulse
The current reading sits well below the central bank’s inflation target range of 2-4%, signaling subdued industrial activity despite ongoing monetary tightening. The National Bank of BY has kept policy rates steady at 8.50%, citing inflation risks but acknowledging growth headwinds.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The BYN depreciated 0.40% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 10 basis points, reflecting increased risk premia on growth concerns.
Industrial production is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting the health of BY’s manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. The -1.30% YoY contraction contrasts sharply with the 2.00% average growth recorded in the first quarter of 2025. This shift signals weakening domestic demand and export headwinds amid a challenging global environment.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
Monetary tightening since mid-2024 has increased borrowing costs, with the policy rate at 8.50%. Credit growth slowed to 3.20% YoY in October, down from 5.60% in early 2025, constraining industrial investment. Inflation remains sticky at 6.10%, limiting central bank flexibility.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains moderately restrictive, with the government targeting a 2.50% deficit in 2025. Capital expenditure on industrial infrastructure was cut by 4% YoY, limiting stimulus. However, targeted subsidies for export-oriented sectors continue, partially offsetting headwinds.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
BY’s industrial sector faces export disruptions due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and trade frictions with key partners. Energy price volatility and supply chain bottlenecks exacerbate cost pressures, further dampening production.
Drivers this month
- Reduced export orders amid geopolitical tensions (-0.50 pp contribution)
- Domestic demand slowdown due to tighter credit (-0.40 pp)
- Supply chain disruptions impacting raw material availability (-0.30 pp)
Policy pulse
The industrial contraction pressures policymakers to balance inflation control with growth support. The central bank’s cautious stance reflects concerns over inflation persistence, while fiscal authorities face limited room for expansion.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: BYN/USD depreciated 0.40%, 2-year yields rose 10 bps, and industrial sector equities fell 1.20% in early trading, signaling investor caution.
This chart reveals a clear downward trend in BY’s industrial production, reversing gains from early 2025. The sustained contraction suggests growing economic headwinds, with risks tilted to the downside unless policy or external conditions improve.
Looking ahead, BY’s industrial production faces a complex outlook shaped by domestic and external factors. We outline three scenarios:
Bullish Scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical tensions ease, restoring export demand.
- Monetary policy shifts to accommodative stance by mid-2026.
- Fiscal stimulus targets industrial modernization, boosting output by 2-3% YoY.
Base Scenario (55% probability)
- Gradual stabilization of external environment.
- Monetary policy remains cautious, balancing inflation and growth.
- Industrial production remains flat to slightly negative (-0.50% to 0%) through mid-2026.
Bearish Scenario (25% probability)
- Escalation of geopolitical risks disrupts trade further.
- Credit tightening intensifies, reducing investment.
- Industrial production contracts deeper, exceeding -2% YoY.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Long-term, BY’s industrial sector must adapt to global shifts toward green energy and digitalization. Current contraction underscores the urgency of structural reforms to improve productivity and diversify export markets.
The November 2025 Industrial Production YoY data for BY highlights a challenging phase for the economy. The deeper-than-expected contraction reflects tightening financial conditions, geopolitical risks, and subdued demand. While short-term risks remain tilted to the downside, targeted policy adjustments and structural reforms could stabilize and eventually revive industrial output. Market participants should monitor policy signals and external developments closely.
Key Markets Likely to React to Industrial Production YoY
Industrial production data in BY typically influences sectors tied to manufacturing, exports, and financial conditions. The following tradable symbols have shown historical sensitivity to BY’s industrial output fluctuations:
- MTLK – A major industrial stock in BY, closely correlated with manufacturing output trends.
- BYNRUB – The BYN-RUB currency pair reflects trade and geopolitical linkages affecting industrial trade flows.
- BYNUSD – The national currency’s USD exchange rate reacts to industrial sector health and capital flows.
- GMKN – A key metals producer, sensitive to industrial demand cycles.
- BYNRUB – Crypto pairs linked to BYN and RUB show volatility aligned with industrial and geopolitical shifts.
FAQs
- What does the BY Industrial Production YoY figure indicate?
- The Industrial Production YoY measures the annual change in output from manufacturing, mining, and utilities in BY, reflecting economic health and industrial sector trends.
- How does the latest reading compare to past data?
- The -1.30% in November 2025 marks a deeper contraction than the -0.80% in October and reverses the positive growth seen in early 2025, signaling a weakening industrial sector.
- What are the main risks affecting BY’s industrial production?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions disrupting exports, tighter credit conditions limiting investment, and supply chain challenges increasing costs.
Final Takeaway: BY’s industrial sector faces a critical juncture as contraction deepens amid external and domestic pressures. Policy agility and structural reforms will be vital to reversing the downward trend and supporting sustainable growth.
The November print of -1.30% YoY industrial production is a notable decline from October’s -0.80% and well below the 12-month average of 0.40%. This marks the third consecutive month of contraction, reversing the positive momentum seen earlier in 2025.
Manufacturing output, the largest component, dropped 2.10% YoY, the steepest decline since December 2024. Energy and mining sectors also contributed negatively, though less sharply.