Belarus Inflation Rate YoY: November 2025 Analysis and Outlook
The latest inflation rate YoY for Belarus (BY) was released on November 10, 2025, showing a reading of 6.90%, slightly below the 7.00% consensus estimate and down from 7.10% in October. This marks a modest easing in inflationary pressures after several months of elevated price growth. Drawing on data from the Sigmanomics database, this report compares recent inflation trends with historical values and assesses the broader macroeconomic implications for Belarus. Key drivers, policy responses, and market reactions are examined to provide a forward-looking perspective on inflation dynamics in the country.
Table of Contents
Belarus’s inflation rate YoY eased to 6.90% in November 2025, down from 7.10% in October and below the 7.00% market forecast. This marks the first monthly decline since July 2025, when inflation peaked at 7.40%. Over the past 12 months, inflation averaged approximately 6.90%, reflecting persistent price pressures amid a complex macroeconomic environment.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices stabilized, reducing upward pressure on consumer costs.
- Food inflation slowed to 4.50% YoY, down from 5.20% last month.
- Core inflation components, excluding volatile items, remained steady near 6.00%.
Policy pulse
The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) continues to target inflation near 5.00%, maintaining a cautious monetary stance. The current 6.90% reading remains above target but signals a possible peak. The central bank’s key policy rate stands at 12.50%, unchanged since September, reflecting a balance between curbing inflation and supporting growth.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Belarusian ruble (BYN) appreciated 0.30% against the USD in the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, signaling eased inflation concerns. Inflation-linked securities saw modest gains, reflecting improved market sentiment.
Inflation trends in Belarus must be viewed alongside core macroeconomic indicators. GDP growth slowed to an estimated 1.80% YoY in Q3 2025, down from 2.30% in Q2, reflecting weaker external demand and domestic constraints. Unemployment remains low at 4.20%, supporting consumer spending but also wage pressures.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The NBRB’s steady policy rate of 12.50% aims to anchor inflation expectations. Credit growth has moderated to 8.10% YoY, down from 9.50% six months ago, indicating tighter financial conditions. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months hover around 6.00%, suggesting some confidence in policy effectiveness.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Belarus’s fiscal deficit widened slightly to 3.20% of GDP in Q3 2025, driven by increased social spending and energy subsidies. The government remains committed to fiscal prudence but faces pressures from geopolitical risks and external shocks that could affect budgetary flexibility.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Ongoing regional tensions and sanctions have constrained trade flows and foreign investment. Energy supply stability has improved, but risks remain from volatile global commodity prices. These factors contribute to inflation volatility and complicate policy calibration.
What This Chart Tells Us
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Inflation-linked bonds rallied modestly, while the BYN strengthened against the USD and EUR. Short-term interest rates declined slightly, reflecting market optimism about inflation containment.
Looking ahead, Belarus faces a complex inflation outlook shaped by domestic and external factors. The base case scenario forecasts inflation stabilizing near 6.50% over the next six months, supported by steady monetary policy and easing commodity prices. Bullish and bearish scenarios outline a range of outcomes based on geopolitical developments and policy responses.
Bullish Scenario (20% probability)
- Inflation falls below 6.00% by Q2 2026 due to sustained energy price declines and improved supply chains.
- Monetary policy remains accommodative but vigilant, supporting growth without reigniting inflation.
- Fiscal consolidation reduces deficit pressures, enhancing macro stability.
Base Scenario (60% probability)
- Inflation hovers between 6.50% and 7.00% through mid-2026, reflecting balanced risks.
- Monetary policy maintains current rates with gradual adjustments as needed.
- External shocks remain manageable but require ongoing vigilance.
Bearish Scenario (20% probability)
- Inflation rises above 7.50% due to renewed geopolitical tensions or commodity price shocks.
- Monetary tightening intensifies, risking slower growth and financial stress.
- Fiscal deficits widen, limiting policy flexibility.
Belarus’s inflation rate YoY at 6.90% in November 2025 signals a tentative easing after months of elevated price growth. While the decline from 7.10% is encouraging, inflation remains above the central bank’s 5.00% target, necessitating continued policy vigilance. The interplay of monetary policy, fiscal discipline, and external risks will shape inflation dynamics in the near term. Market reactions suggest cautious optimism, but structural challenges and geopolitical uncertainties warrant close monitoring.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
Inflation data in Belarus typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to interest rate expectations and economic growth prospects. The Belarusian ruble (BYN) often moves inversely to inflation surprises, while government bond yields adjust to inflation outlook shifts. Selected tradable symbols below historically track inflation trends and market sentiment in Belarus.
- BYNUSD – Belarusian ruble vs. US dollar, sensitive to inflation and monetary policy shifts.
- MOEX – Moscow Exchange index, reflecting regional economic sentiment and inflation impact.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as an inflation hedge and risk sentiment barometer.
- EURBYN – Euro vs. Belarusian ruble, tracking inflation and geopolitical risks.
- SBER – Sberbank stock, sensitive to regional economic and inflation developments.
Inflation vs. BYNUSD Exchange Rate Since 2020
Since 2020, Belarus’s inflation rate and the BYNUSD exchange rate have shown a moderate inverse correlation. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with BYN depreciation, reflecting reduced purchasing power and monetary tightening expectations. The recent November 2025 inflation easing corresponded with a 0.30% BYN appreciation, underscoring the currency’s sensitivity to inflation data.
FAQ
- What is the current inflation rate YoY for Belarus?
- The latest inflation rate YoY for Belarus is 6.90% as of November 2025.
- How does Belarus’s inflation compare historically?
- Inflation peaked at 7.40% in August 2025 and averaged 6.90% over the past year, higher than the 2024 average of 5.20%.
- What are the main risks to Belarus’s inflation outlook?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, and fiscal pressures that could push inflation higher.
Takeaway: Belarus’s inflation shows signs of peaking but remains elevated, requiring balanced policy and close monitoring amid external uncertainties.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
Inflation data in Belarus influences currency, bond, and equity markets that are sensitive to changes in price levels and monetary policy. The Belarusian ruble (BYN) typically strengthens when inflation eases, while bond yields adjust to inflation expectations. Regional stock indices and select cryptocurrencies also respond to inflation-driven shifts in risk sentiment.
- BYNUSD – Directly impacted by inflation and monetary policy in Belarus.
- MOEX – Regional equity index reflecting economic and inflation trends.
- BTCUSD – Inflation hedge and risk sentiment indicator.
- EURBYN – Tracks inflation and geopolitical risk impacts on BYN.
- SBER – Major regional bank stock sensitive to inflation and economic conditions.
Inflation Rate YoY vs. BYNUSD Exchange Rate Since 2020
Analysis of inflation and BYNUSD exchange rate since 2020 reveals a consistent inverse relationship. Inflation spikes often coincide with BYN depreciation, reflecting monetary tightening expectations and reduced currency purchasing power. The November 2025 inflation easing to 6.90% was accompanied by a 0.30% BYN appreciation, highlighting the currency’s responsiveness to inflation data.
FAQ
- What is the latest inflation rate YoY for Belarus?
- The inflation rate YoY for Belarus in November 2025 is 6.90%, down from 7.10% in October.
- How does this inflation reading compare to previous months?
- It marks a decline from the summer peak of 7.40% in August 2025 and aligns with the 12-month average of 6.90%.
- What are the main factors influencing Belarus’s inflation?
- Energy prices, food costs, monetary policy, fiscal spending, and geopolitical risks are key drivers.
Final takeaway: Belarus’s inflation is moderating but remains above target, requiring careful policy calibration amid external uncertainties.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 inflation rate of 6.90% compares favorably to October’s 7.10% and aligns closely with the 12-month average of 6.90%. This marks a reversal of the upward trend observed since April 2025, when inflation stood at 5.90%. The chart below illustrates the monthly inflation trajectory over the past eight months, highlighting the recent peak and subsequent easing.
Compared to historical inflation peaks—7.40% in August 2025 and 7.30% in July 2025—the current reading suggests a moderation in price pressures. However, inflation remains elevated relative to the 2024 average of 5.20%, underscoring persistent structural challenges.