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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Average Hourly Wages YoY climbed to 3.7% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Canada Average Hourly Wages YoY climbed to 3.7% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.5% from May's 3.2% reading. The print exceeded the 3.1% consensus by 0.6%. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.5%. Over the past 3 months, Average Hourly Wages YoY averaged 4.0%, vs 4.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 48th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.7
Actual
3.1
Consensus
3.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.45 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2.35
Actual: 3.7
Error: -1.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Hourly Wages YoY (Canada) was reported at 3.7% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.1% by 0.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.61%, ranging from 3.2% to 4.2% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.7%, up from the prior three at 3.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.31%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.64%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Average Hourly Wages YoY has averaged 4.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/CAD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.45%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 20) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Average Hourly Wages YoY - CA
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About Average Hourly Wages YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Average Hourly Wages YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in average hourly wages for workers over a 12-month period. This indicator provides valuable insight into the overall health of the labor market and can be used to assess the impact of wage growth on consumer spending and inflation. It is a key metric for economists, policymakers, and investors in understanding the current state and future trends of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 3.7 %, consensus 3.1 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 3.2 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 4.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/CAD (Bullish AUD, r=0.40) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, July 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 3 | 2.95 | High | |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | 1 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low | |