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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Average Hourly Wages YoY fell to 3.2% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Canada Average Hourly Wages YoY fell to 3.2% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 1.6% from April's 4.8% reading. The reading missed the 4.7% consensus by 1.5%. Average Hourly Wages YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Average Hourly Wages YoY averaged 4.7%, vs 3.5% in the prior 3-month window. Average Hourly Wages YoY is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
3.2
Actual
4.7
Consensus
4.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.45 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 4.7
Actual: 3.2
Error: +1.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Bearish CAD | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Hourly Wages YoY (Canada) was reported at 3.2% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.7% by 1.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.56%, ranging from 3.2% to 4.2% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.57%, down from the prior three at 3.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.34%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.71%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Average Hourly Wages YoY has averaged 3.97%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/CAD (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.45%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 10, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Average Hourly Wages YoY - CA
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About Average Hourly Wages YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Average Hourly Wages YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in average hourly wages for workers over a 12-month period. This indicator provides valuable insight into the overall health of the labor market and can be used to assess the impact of wage growth on consumer spending and inflation. It is a key metric for economists, policymakers, and investors in understanding the current state and future trends of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3.2 %, consensus 4.7 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 4.8 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 5.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.