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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Average Hourly Wages YoY fell to 2.0% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Canada Average Hourly Wages YoY fell to 2.0% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 1.0% from July's 3.0% reading. The reading missed the 2.9% consensus by 0.9%. Average Hourly Wages YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Average Hourly Wages YoY averaged 3.35%, vs 4.33% in the prior 3-month window. Average Hourly Wages YoY is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
2
Actual
2.9
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 2.9
Actual: 2
Error: +0.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Hourly Wages YoY (Canada) was reported at 2% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.9% by 0.9%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.38%, ranging from 2% to 4.2% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.9%, down from the prior three at 3.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.61%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.46%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Average Hourly Wages YoY has averaged 3.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish CAD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.4%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts (Sep 16) and New Housing Price Index MoM (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Average Hourly Wages YoY - CA
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About Average Hourly Wages YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Average Hourly Wages YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in average hourly wages for workers over a 12-month period. This indicator provides valuable insight into the overall health of the labor market and can be used to assess the impact of wage growth on consumer spending and inflation. It is a key metric for economists, policymakers, and investors in understanding the current state and future trends of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 2 %, consensus 2.9 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 3 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 3.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.56) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.65 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Median CPI YoY | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 80.7 | 82.2 | 82.4 | 81.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.32 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 190.2 | 190.1 | 190.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -0.6 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -0.47 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 229.1 | 237.5 | 240.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Building Permits MoM | 18.5 | -5.8 | -5.80 | Low | |