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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Average Weekly Earnings climbed to 3.7% in August 2026
FMPWeeklyReleased October 2026
Canada Average Weekly Earnings climbed to 3.7% in August 2026, released October 2026, up 0.5% from July's 3.2% reading. The print exceeded the 3.2% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.95%. Over the past 3 months, Average Weekly Earnings averaged 3.3%, vs 3.57% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 67th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.7
Actual
3.2
Consensus
3.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.35 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 3.18
Actual: 3.7
Error: -0.52
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Weekly Earnings (Canada) was reported at 3.7% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.2% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.98%, ranging from 1.9% to 3.8% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.43%, down from the prior three at 3.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.64%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.94%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P/TSX Composite (Bearish S&P). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.35%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Average Weekly Earnings - CA
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About Average Weekly Earnings — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's Average Weekly Earnings rose to 3.700000% in October, beating the 3.200000% estimate and previous 3.200000% reading. This marks a notable acceleration from September's 3.2%, signaling stronger wage growth momentum. The data may influence market expectations on Canadian monetary policy ahead of upcoming central bank decisions. Updated 10/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 3.7 %, consensus 3.2 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 3.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 3.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P/TSX Composite (Bearish S&P, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low |