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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Average Weekly Earnings climbed to 3.4% in June 2026
FMPWeeklyReleased August 2026
Canada Average Weekly Earnings climbed to 3.4% in June 2026, released August 2026, up 0.1% from May's 3.3% reading. The reading matched the 3.3% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.98%. Over the past 3 months, Average Weekly Earnings averaged 3.6%, vs 2.97% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 50th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.4
Actual
3.3
Consensus
3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.35 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3.45
Actual: 3.4
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Weekly Earnings (Canada) was reported at 3.4% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.3% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.92%, ranging from 1.9% to 3.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.53%, up from the prior three at 2.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.63%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.89%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P/TSX Composite (Bearish S&P). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.35%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts (Sep 16) and New Housing Price Index MoM (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Average Weekly Earnings - CA
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About Average Weekly Earnings — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's Average Weekly Earnings for August came in at 3.4%, matching July's 3.4% and slightly above the 3.3% estimate. The reading shows a stable trend after June's 3.8% peak, indicating steady wage growth. Market focus remains on upcoming employment data for further insight into labor market dynamics. Updated 8/27/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 3.4 %, consensus 3.3 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 3.4 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 3.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P/TSX Composite (Bearish S&P, r=-0.47) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.65 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Median CPI YoY | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 80.7 | 82.2 | 82.4 | 81.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.32 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 190.2 | 190.1 | 190.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -0.6 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -0.47 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 229.1 | 237.5 | 240.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Building Permits MoM | 18.5 | -5.8 | -5.80 | Low | |