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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Average Weekly Earnings fell to 3.4% in May 2026
FMPWeeklyReleased July 2026
Canada Average Weekly Earnings fell to 3.4% in May 2026, released July 2026, down 0.27% from April's 3.67% reading. The reading missed the 3.7% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.98%. Over the past 3 months, Average Weekly Earnings averaged 3.65%, vs 2.43% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 50th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.4
Actual
3.7
Consensus
3.67
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.47 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 4.28
Actual: 3.4
Error: +0.88
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Weekly Earnings (Canada) was reported at 3.4% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.7% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.67%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.98%, ranging from 1.9% to 3.8% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.57%, up from the prior three at 2.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P/TSX Composite, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.48%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Aug 4) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Average Weekly Earnings - CA
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About Average Weekly Earnings — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's Average Weekly Earnings for July came in at 3.4%, missing the 3.7% estimate and down from June's 3.8%. This marks a deceleration in wage growth compared to the previous month. Market participants will watch upcoming labor data closely amid this cooling trend. Updated 7/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 3.4 %, consensus 3.7 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.8 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 3.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bearish USD, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.4 | 3.67 | 3.7 | 3.55 | Low |