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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Average Weekly Earnings climbed to 3.5% in March 2026
FMPWeeklyReleased May 2026
Canada Average Weekly Earnings climbed to 3.5% in March 2026, released May 2026, up 0.65% from February's 2.85% reading. The print exceeded the 2.1% consensus by 1.4%. Average Weekly Earnings has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Average Weekly Earnings averaged 2.7%, vs 2.2% in the prior 3-month window. Average Weekly Earnings is now the highest in 8 months.
Latest Release
3.5
Actual
2.1
Consensus
2.85
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.48 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.3
Actual: 3.5
Error: -1.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | INDEX | Bearish S&P | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Bearish CAD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Average Weekly Earnings (Canada) was reported at 3.5% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.1% by 1.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.85%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.99%, ranging from 1.9% to 4.4% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.47%, down from the prior three at 2.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P/TSX Composite (Bearish S&P). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.48%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Average Weekly Earnings - CA
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About Average Weekly Earnings — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's Average Weekly Earnings rose to 3.5% in May, beating the 2.1% estimate and up from April's 3.4%. This marks a continued acceleration in wage growth, signaling stronger labor market conditions. The data supports a firm central bank stance amid persistent inflation pressures. Updated 5/28/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 3.5 %, consensus 2.1 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 3.4 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P/TSX Composite (Bearish S&P, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.