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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Building Permits fell to 4.8% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
Canada Building Permits fell to 4.8% in January 2026, released March 2026, down 1.3% from December's 6.1% reading. The print exceeded the -2.0% consensus by 6.8%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.32%. Over the past 3 months, Building Permits averaged 2.87%, vs 1.65% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 68th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.8
Actual
-2
Consensus
6.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.67 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: -0.87
Actual: 4.8
Error: -5.67
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Bearish CAD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Building Permits (Canada) was reported at 4.8% in March 2026. This beat the market consensus of -2% by 6.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of 6.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.18%, ranging from -13.1% to 14.9% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.5%, down from the prior three at 6.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5.67%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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Building Permits - CA
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About Building Permits — Canada
DEFINITION
Building Permits is a key financial indicator that measures the number of permits issued by local governments for new construction projects. This indicator provides valuable insight into the health of the construction industry and the overall state of the economy. A high number of building permits indicates a strong demand for new construction, which can stimulate economic growth and job creation. On the other hand, a decline in building permits may signal a slowdown in the construction sector and a potential economic downturn. As such, Building Permits is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as a reliable gauge of economic activity and future market trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 4.8 %, consensus 2.1 %. Prior reading (Dec 2025): 6.8 %. Before that (Nov 2025): -13.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.62) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.