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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Core Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.0% in September 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada Core Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.0% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.1% from August's 0.1% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.2% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Core Inflation Rate MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.15%, vs 0.3% in the prior 3-month window. Core Inflation Rate MoM is now the lowest in 8 months.
Latest Release
0
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.16 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.18
Actual: 0
Error: +0.18
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate MoM (Canada) was reported at 0% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.17%, ranging from -0.4% to 0.6% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.1%, down from the prior three at 0.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.28%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.29%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.16%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate MoM - CA
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About Core Inflation Rate MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, on a monthly basis. It provides insight into the underlying inflation trends and helps policymakers and investors make informed decisions about monetary policy and market strategies. This indicator is considered a more reliable measure of inflation as it eliminates the impact of temporary price fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of the overall inflationary pressures in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 0 %. Before that (Sep 2026): 0 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low |