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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Core Inflation Rate MoM held to 0.2% in April 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased May 2026
Canada Core Inflation Rate MoM held to 0.2% in April 2026, released May 2026. The print came in cooler than the 0.3% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.3%. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.3%, vs -0.1% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 54th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.3
Consensus
0.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.19 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.4
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate MoM (Canada) was reported at 0.2% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.17%, ranging from -0.4% to 0.6% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.27%, up from the prior three at 0.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.28%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.31%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.19%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 22, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate MoM - CA
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About Core Inflation Rate MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, on a monthly basis. It provides insight into the underlying inflation trends and helps policymakers and investors make informed decisions about monetary policy and market strategies. This indicator is considered a more reliable measure of inflation as it eliminates the impact of temporary price fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of the overall inflationary pressures in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.