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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Core Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.1% in June 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased July 2026
Canada Core Inflation Rate MoM fell to 0.1% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.5% from May's 0.6% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.17%. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate MoM averaged 0.4%, vs 0.27% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 38th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
0.1
Consensus
0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.16 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.1
Actual: 0.1
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate MoM (Canada) was reported at 0.1% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.1% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.17%, ranging from -0.4% to 0.6% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.3%, up from the prior three at 0.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.28%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.3%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.16%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Aug 4) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate MoM - CA
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About Core Inflation Rate MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, on a monthly basis. It provides insight into the underlying inflation trends and helps policymakers and investors make informed decisions about monetary policy and market strategies. This indicator is considered a more reliable measure of inflation as it eliminates the impact of temporary price fluctuations, providing a clearer picture of the overall inflationary pressures in the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.1 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.6 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.47) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.4 | 3.67 | 3.7 | 3.55 | Low |