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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Core Inflation Rate YoY fell to 2.1% in April 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased May 2026
Canada Core Inflation Rate YoY fell to 2.1% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.4% from March's 2.5% reading. The print came in cooler than the 2.6% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.64%. Over the past 3 months, Core Inflation Rate YoY averaged 2.4%, vs 2.77% in the prior 3-month window. Core Inflation Rate YoY is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
2.1
Actual
2.6
Consensus
2.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 2.55
Actual: 2.1
Error: +0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | INDEX | Bearish S&P | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core Inflation Rate YoY (Canada) was reported at 2.1% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.6% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.62%, ranging from 2.1% to 2.9% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.33%, down from the prior three at 2.87%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.24%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.36%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Core Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 2.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P/TSX Composite (Bearish S&P). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 22, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Core Inflation Rate YoY - CA
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About Core Inflation Rate YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
The Core Inflation Rate YoY is a key financial indicator that measures the change in prices of goods and services over a 12-month period, excluding volatile items such as food and energy. It provides a more accurate and stable representation of overall inflation trends, allowing businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions about economic policies and investments. This indicator is widely used by financial analysts and investors to assess the health of an economy and predict future inflation levels.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.1 %, consensus 2.6 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 2.5 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 2.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P/TSX Composite (Bearish S&P, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.