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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada CPI fell to 2.3% in February 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased March 2026
Canada CPI fell to 2.3% in February 2026, released March 2026, down 0.1% from January's 2.4% reading. The reading matched expectations. CPI has now declined for 6 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, CPI averaged 2.45%, vs 2.93% in the prior 3-month window. CPI is now the lowest in 13 months.
Latest Release
2.3
Actual
2.4
Consensus
2.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 2.28
Actual: 2.3
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI (Canada) was reported at 2.3% in March 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.4% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.82%, ranging from 2.3% to 3.1% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.4%, down from the prior three at 2.93%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/CAD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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CPI - CA
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About CPI — Canada
DEFINITION
CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is a widely used economic indicator that measures the average change in prices of goods and services purchased by households. It is an important tool for assessing inflation and the overall cost of living for consumers. The CPI is calculated by tracking the prices of a basket of goods and services over time, providing valuable insights into the current state of the economy and its impact on consumers. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions about economic trends and financial strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 2.3 %, consensus 2.4 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 2.4 %. Before that (Dec 2025): 2.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.57) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.