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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Employment Change climbed to 75.1K in July 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased August 2026
Canada Employment Change climbed to 75.1K in July 2026, released August 2026, up 56.9K from June's 18.2K reading. The print exceeded the 15K consensus by 60.1K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 10.54K. Over the past 3 months, Employment Change averaged 53.1K, vs -29.17K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 80th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
75.1
Actual
15
Consensus
18.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±52.24 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 36.55
Actual: 75.1
Error: -38.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.77 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Employment Change (Canada) was reported at 75 thousand in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 15 thousand by 60 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 18 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 19 thousand, ranging from -84 thousand to 88 thousand across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 60 thousand, up from the prior three at -7 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 60 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 41 thousand). In August readings over the past 3 years, Employment Change has averaged 11 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 52 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 17) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Aug 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Employment Change - CA
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About Employment Change — Canada
DEFINITION
Employment Change is a key economic indicator that measures the net change in the number of people employed in a given period of time. It provides valuable insights into the health of the job market and overall economic growth. A positive employment change indicates an increase in job opportunities, while a negative change suggests a decline in employment. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 75.1 K, consensus 15 K. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 18.2 K. Before that (May 2026): 88 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.77) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, August 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.75 | High | |
| 12:30 | CA | Median CPI YoY | 1.9 | 2 | 2.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.15 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.95 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.80 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.35 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Foreign Securities Purchases | 7.9 | 15 | 15.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI MoM | -0.4 | 0.4 | 0.25 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 190.6 | 160 | 160.00 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 239 | 248 | 248.00 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | Producer Price Index MoM | -1.4 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Producer Price Index YoY | 12.4 | 12 | 12.00 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | New Housing Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Raw Materials Prices MoM | -6.9 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Raw Materials Prices YoY | 20.7 | 18 | 18.00 | Low | |