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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Employment Change fell to 18.2K in June 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased July 2026
Canada Employment Change fell to 18.2K in June 2026, released July 2026, down 69.6K from May's 87.8K reading. The print exceeded the 10K consensus by 8.2K. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 9.64K. Over the past 3 months, Employment Change averaged 35.15K, vs -34.9K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 57th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
18.2
Actual
10
Consensus
87.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±63.43 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 49
Actual: 18.2
Error: +30.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.83 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Employment Change (Canada) was reported at 18 thousand in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 10 thousand by 8 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 88 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5 thousand, ranging from -84 thousand to 88 thousand across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 7 thousand, down from the prior three at 41 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 59 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 37 thousand). In July readings over the past 3 years, Employment Change has averaged 33 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 63 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Aug 4) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Employment Change - CA
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About Employment Change — Canada
DEFINITION
Employment Change is a key economic indicator that measures the net change in the number of people employed in a given period of time. It provides valuable insights into the health of the job market and overall economic growth. A positive employment change indicates an increase in job opportunities, while a negative change suggests a decline in employment. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 18.2 K, consensus 10 K. Prior reading (May 2026): 88 K. Before that (Apr 2026): -17.7 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.83) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.4 | 3.67 | 3.7 | 3.55 | Low |