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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Employment Change fell to -68.3K in September 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada Employment Change fell to -68.3K in September 2026, released October 2026, down 26.6K from August's -41.7K reading. The reading missed the 7K consensus by 75.3K. Employment Change has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Employment Change averaged 16.7K, vs 29.5K in the prior 3-month window. Employment Change is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
-68.3
Actual
7
Consensus
-41.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±74.96 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 7.85
Actual: -68.3
Error: +76.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Employment Change (Canada) was reported at -68 thousand in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 7 thousand by 75 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of -42 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6 thousand, ranging from -84 thousand to 88 thousand across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -12 thousand, down from the prior three at 7 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 61 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 49 thousand). In October readings over the past 3 years, Employment Change has averaged 13 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 75 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Employment Change - CA
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About Employment Change — Canada
DEFINITION
Employment Change is a key economic indicator that measures the net change in the number of people employed in a given period of time. It provides valuable insights into the health of the job market and overall economic growth. A positive employment change indicates an increase in job opportunities, while a negative change suggests a decline in employment. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -68.3 K, consensus 7 K. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -41.7 K. Before that (Jul 2026): 75.1 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bearish USD, r=-0.66) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low |