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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Exports fell to 76.14B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Canada Exports fell to 76.14B in July 2026, released September 2026, down 1.82B from June's 77.96B reading. The reading matched the 77B consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 67.44B. Over the past 3 months, Exports averaged 76.58B, vs 67.19B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
76.14
Actual
77
Consensus
77.96
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.49 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 78.63
Actual: 76.14
Error: +2.48
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports (Canada) was reported at 76.14 billion in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 77.00 billion by 0.86 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 77.96 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 68.90 billion, ranging from 60.58 billion to 77.49 billion across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 76.91 billion, up from the prior three at 67.98 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 6.38 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.18 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Exports has averaged 67.89 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with S&P/TSX Composite, positively correlated (Bullish S&P). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.49 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts (Sep 16) and New Housing Price Index MoM (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Exports - CA
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About Exports — Canada
DEFINITION
Exports refer to the goods and services that a country produces and sells to other countries. This financial indicator is used to measure the strength of a country's economy and its international trade relationships. A high level of exports can indicate a healthy economy and a competitive market, while a decrease in exports may signal a decline in economic activity. This information is important for businesses, investors, and policymakers to make informed decisions about trade and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 76.14 M, consensus 77 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 77.49 M. Before that (May 2026): 77.1 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.61) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.65 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Median CPI YoY | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 80.7 | 82.2 | 82.4 | 81.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.32 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 190.2 | 190.1 | 190.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -0.6 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -0.47 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 229.1 | 237.5 | 240.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Building Permits MoM | 18.5 | -5.8 | -5.80 | Low | |