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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Full Time Employment Chg fell to -35.9K in August 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased September 2026
Canada Full Time Employment Chg fell to -35.9K in August 2026, released September 2026, down 74.5K from July's 38.6K reading. The reading missed the 4K consensus by 39.9K. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 14.32K. Over the past 3 months, Full Time Employment Chg averaged 19.6K, vs -0.55K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 20th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-35.9
Actual
4
Consensus
38.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±46.05 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 12.3
Actual: -35.9
Error: +48.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Full Time Employment Chg (Canada) was reported at -36 thousand in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4 thousand by 40 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 39 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 27 thousand, ranging from -108 thousand to 154 thousand across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1 thousand, down from the prior three at 30 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 73 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 47 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, Full Time Employment Chg has averaged -29 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/CAD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 46 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts (Sep 16) and New Housing Price Index MoM (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Full Time Employment Chg - CA
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About Full Time Employment Chg — Canada
DEFINITION
Full Time Employment Chg is a financial indicator that measures the change in the number of individuals who are employed full-time within a given period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the strength of the job market and the overall health of the economy. A positive change in full-time employment indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may suggest a weakening job market. It is often used by investors, policymakers, and analysts to assess the current state and future outlook of the labor market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -35.9 K, consensus 4 K. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 38.6 K. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.6 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.65 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Median CPI YoY | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 80.7 | 82.2 | 82.4 | 81.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.32 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 190.2 | 190.1 | 190.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -0.6 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -0.47 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 229.1 | 237.5 | 240.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Building Permits MoM | 18.5 | -5.8 | -5.80 | Low | |