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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Gross Domestic Product MoM fell to 0.1% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Canada Gross Domestic Product MoM fell to 0.1% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.3% from April's 0.4% reading. The reading matched the 0.1% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.01%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product MoM averaged 0.15%, vs 0.13% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 56th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
0.1
Consensus
0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -0.15
Actual: 0.1
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.60 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product MoM (Canada) was reported at 0.1% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.1% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.02%, ranging from -0.3% to 0.2% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.07%, up from the prior three at 0%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 20) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product MoM - CA
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About Gross Domestic Product MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's Gross Domestic Product MoM for May rose 0.400000%, matching estimates and rebounding sharply from April's -0.100000%. This marks a clear expansion following a contraction in the prior month. Market focus will remain on upcoming data to assess the sustainability of this growth. Updated 6/30/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -0.1 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.60) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, July 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 3 | 2.95 | High | |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | 1 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low | |