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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Gross Domestic Product MoM climbed to 0.4% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Canada Gross Domestic Product MoM climbed to 0.4% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.5% from April's -0.1% reading. The reading matched the 0.4% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.01%. Over the past 3 months, Gross Domestic Product MoM averaged 0.15%, vs 0.13% in the prior 3-month window. Gross Domestic Product MoM is now the highest in 16 months.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.4
Consensus
-0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.15
Actual: 0.4
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product MoM (Canada) was reported at 0.4% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 0.4% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0%, ranging from -0.3% to 0.4% across 12 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.17%, up from the prior three at 0%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product MoM - CA
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About Gross Domestic Product MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's Gross Domestic Product MoM contracted by -0.100000% in April, missing the 0.400000% estimate and down from March's 0.200000%. April's decline marks a reversal from the prior month's growth, indicating a slowdown in economic activity. Market focus will remain on upcoming data releases and central bank signals amid this unexpected contraction. Updated 5/29/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -0.1 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.62) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.