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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Housing Starts fell to 229.1K in July 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased August 2026
Canada Housing Starts fell to 229.1K in July 2026, released August 2026, down 11.7K from June's 240.8K reading. The reading missed the 248K consensus by 18.9K. Housing Starts has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Housing Starts averaged 250.2K, vs 255.37K in the prior 3-month window. Housing Starts is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
229.1
Actual
248
Consensus
240.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±27.14 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 244.83
Actual: 229.1
Error: +15.72
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Housing Starts (Canada) was reported at 229 thousand in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 248 thousand by 19 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 241 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 254 thousand, ranging from 229 thousand to 282 thousand across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 243 thousand, down from the prior three at 256 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 18 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 27 thousand). In August readings over the past 3 years, Housing Starts has averaged 268 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 27 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Sep 23) and Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Sep 24).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Housing Starts - CA
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About Housing Starts — Canada
DEFINITION
Housing Starts is a key economic indicator that measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun in a given period of time. This data is used to gauge the health of the housing market and overall economic growth, as it reflects the level of demand for new homes and the confidence of builders in the market. Housing Starts is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and industry professionals to make informed decisions and predictions about the future of the housing sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 229.1 K, consensus 248 K. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 239 K. Before that (May 2026): 261.4 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.65 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Median CPI YoY | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 80.7 | 82.2 | 82.4 | 81.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.32 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 190.2 | 190.1 | 190.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -0.6 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -0.47 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 229.1 | 237.5 | 240.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Building Permits MoM | 18.5 | -5.8 | -5.80 | Low | |