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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Housing Starts climbed to 248K in September 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada Housing Starts climbed to 248K in September 2026, released October 2026, up 6K from August's 242K reading. The print exceeded the 232.5K consensus by 15.5K. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 31.2K. Over the past 3 months, Housing Starts averaged 229.05K, vs 259.9K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
248
Actual
232.5
Consensus
242
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±23.91 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 225.03
Actual: 248
Error: -22.97
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Housing Starts (Canada) was reported at 248 thousand in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 233 thousand by 16 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 242 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 249 thousand, ranging from 229 thousand to 282 thousand across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 235 thousand, down from the prior three at 260 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 18 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 25 thousand). In October readings over the past 3 years, Housing Starts has averaged 250 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 24 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Housing Starts - CA
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About Housing Starts — Canada
DEFINITION
Housing Starts is a key economic indicator that measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun in a given period of time. This data is used to gauge the health of the housing market and overall economic growth, as it reflects the level of demand for new homes and the confidence of builders in the market. Housing Starts is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and industry professionals to make informed decisions and predictions about the future of the housing sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 248 K, consensus 232.5 K. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 229 K. Before that (Jul 2026): 229.1 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.46) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low |