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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Housing Starts fell to 239K in June 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased July 2026
Canada Housing Starts fell to 239K in June 2026, released July 2026, down 14.1K from May's 253.1K reading. The reading missed the 258K consensus by 19K. Housing Starts has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Housing Starts averaged 270.35K, vs 241.6K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 35th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
239
Actual
258
Consensus
253.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±27.14 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 269.4
Actual: 239
Error: +30.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Housing Starts (Canada) was reported at 239 thousand in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 258 thousand by 19 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 253 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 260 thousand, ranging from 233 thousand to 294 thousand across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 260 thousand, up from the prior three at 257 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 20 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 26 thousand). In July readings over the past 3 years, Housing Starts has averaged 255 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 27 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Gross Domestic Product MoM (Jul 31) and Balance of Trade (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Housing Starts - CA
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About Housing Starts — Canada
DEFINITION
Housing Starts is a key economic indicator that measures the number of new residential construction projects that have begun in a given period of time. This data is used to gauge the health of the housing market and overall economic growth, as it reflects the level of demand for new homes and the confidence of builders in the market. Housing Starts is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and industry professionals to make informed decisions and predictions about the future of the housing sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 239 K, consensus 258 K. Prior reading (May 2026): 261.4 K. Before that (Apr 2026): 279.3 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.45) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.4 | 3.67 | 3.7 | 3.55 | Low |