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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 2.8% in April 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased May 2026
Canada Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 2.8% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 0.4% from March's 2.4% reading. The print came in cooler than the 3.1% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Inflation Rate YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate YoY averaged 2.1%, vs 2.3% in the prior 3-month window. Inflation Rate YoY is now the highest in 22 months.
Latest Release
2.8
Actual
3.1
Consensus
2.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.11 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 3.05
Actual: 2.8
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.87 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | INDEX | Bearish S&P | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate YoY (Canada) was reported at 2.8% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.1% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.12%, ranging from 1.7% to 2.8% across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.3%, up from the prior three at 2.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.33%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.41%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 2.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with S&P/TSX Composite, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.11%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 22, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Inflation Rate YoY - CA
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About Inflation Rate YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services over a 12-month period. It is a key measure of inflation and is used by economists and policymakers to monitor the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A higher inflation rate can indicate a growing economy, but if it rises too quickly, it can lead to negative effects such as decreased purchasing power and higher interest rates. Conversely, a lower inflation rate can signal a slowing economy, but if it falls too low, it can lead to deflation and potential economic instability. The Inflation Rate YoY is an important tool for understanding and managing the impact of price changes on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.8 %, consensus 3.1 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 2.4 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 1.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.87) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.