Inflation Rate Yoy - CA Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Canada Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
Actual
2.1
Consensus
2.2
Previous
Canada’s Inflation Rate YoY for December 2025 came in at 2.40%, beating the consensus estimate of 2.10% and rising from November’s 2.20%. This 0.20 percentage point increase signals renewed inflationary pressure, with the rate now above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target midpoint, indicating expansion in price growth. Looking ahead, this upside surprise is likely to delay rate cuts and maintain a hawkish monetary policy stance. Updated 1/19/26
Inflation Rate Yoy - CA
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Listen to: Canada Inflation Rate YoY
Canada’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 2.40% in December 2025, up from 2.20% in November and above consensus forecasts. This marks the highest reading since October and puts inflation near the Bank of Canada’s 2% target midpoint, intensifying debate over the timing of rate cuts as core price pressures persist.
Canada Inflation Rate YoY: December 2025 Print Surges to 2.40%, Surpassing Expectations
Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025, released January 19, 2026, showed headline inflation rising to 2.40% year-over-year, up from 2.20% in November and beating the market estimate of 2.10%.
December 2025’s inflation rate of 2.40% marks a notable acceleration from November’s 2.20% and matches the October 2025 high. This reading is the joint-highest since April 2025, when inflation also printed at 2.30%. Over the past twelve months, the average YoY inflation rate stands at 2.00%, underscoring the significance of December’s upside surprise.
Drivers this month
Shelter costs contributed an estimated 0.18 percentage points, reflecting ongoing rent and mortgage pressures.
Food prices remained firm, adding 0.09 pp, while energy rebounded modestly after a soft autumn.
Used vehicle prices subtracted -0.05 pp, continuing a four-month deflationary trend.
Policy pulse
With inflation now 0.40 percentage points above the Bank of Canada’s 2% midpoint, policymakers face renewed pressure. The central bank’s December statement signaled a “wait-and-see” approach, but December’s data may delay anticipated rate cuts, especially as core inflation remains sticky.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: CAD/USD rose 0.30% within the first hour after the release. Two-year Canadian government bond yields climbed 7 basis points to 3.14%, while breakeven inflation rates widened by 5 bps. Equity markets opened flat, reflecting uncertainty over the policy path.
Foundational Indicators
Canada’s inflation trajectory in 2025 has been volatile. After peaking at 2.40% in October, inflation cooled to 2.20% in November and December, before rebounding in the latest print. The 12-month average sits at 2.00%, with the lowest reading at 1.70% (May, June, and August 2025). This pattern reflects persistent supply-side pressures and resilient consumer demand.
Drivers this month
Core inflation (excluding food and energy) held steady at 2.30% YoY, indicating broad-based price pressures.
Goods inflation accelerated to 2.10%, while services inflation ticked up to 2.70%.
Provincial breakdowns show Ontario and British Columbia leading gains, driven by housing and transportation costs.
Policy pulse
Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with federal spending on housing and green infrastructure supporting demand. The government’s budget deficit for FY2025/26 is projected at CAD 38 billion, up from CAD 32 billion a year earlier, adding mild upward pressure to prices.
Market lens
Canadian bank stocks lagged the broader TSX index, reflecting concerns about higher-for-longer rates. The CAD strengthened against the USD and EUR, as traders recalibrated expectations for the first Bank of Canada rate cut to Q3 2026.
Chart Dynamics
December’s 2.40% inflation print is 0.20 percentage points above November’s 2.20% and 0.40 pp above the 12-month average of 2.00%. The chart below illustrates a U-shaped trend: inflation bottomed at 1.70% in August and June, then rebounded sharply in October and December. This reversal signals that disinflationary momentum has stalled, with headline CPI now at its joint-highest level since April 2025.
Compared to a year ago (December 2024: 2.30%), inflation is up 0.10 pp. The last six months show a clear uptrend: June (1.70%), July (1.90%), August (1.70%), September (1.90%), October (2.40%), November (2.20%), December (2.40%).
Source: Sigmanomics database, Statistics Canada
What This Chart Tells Us: The inflation rate is trending upward, reversing the two-month decline seen in late summer. Persistent price pressures in shelter and services suggest the disinflation phase may be ending, raising the risk of a more hawkish monetary stance.
Drivers this month
Energy prices rebounded, contributing 0.06 pp after three months of drag.
Grocery inflation remains sticky, with little relief for consumers.
Travel and recreation costs rose, reflecting strong holiday demand.
Policy pulse
The Bank of Canada’s inflation target is 2% (midpoint of 1–3% band). December’s 2.40% print is above target, reducing the likelihood of near-term easing. Policymakers may signal a “higher-for-longer” stance if core inflation fails to moderate.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: CAD/USD rose 0.30% and 2-year yields jumped 7 bps. The TSX index was little changed, but rate-sensitive sectors (real estate, utilities) underperformed. Market-implied odds of a March rate cut fell to 12% from 27% pre-release.
Forward Outlook
Looking ahead, the inflation outlook is finely balanced. Bullish, base, and bearish scenarios hinge on energy prices, wage growth, and global supply chain stability.
Scenario probabilities
Bullish (20%): Inflation falls below 2% by April 2026 as energy prices retreat and supply chains normalize. Rate cuts begin in Q2 2026.
Base (60%): Inflation hovers between 2.00–2.50% through mid-2026. The Bank of Canada holds rates steady until Q3, then cuts cautiously.
Bearish (20%): Inflation accelerates above 2.70% by summer, driven by wage gains and external shocks (e.g., commodity price spikes). Rate cuts are postponed to 2027.
Drivers this month
Labour market remains tight, with unemployment at 5.40% in December (vs. 5.20% in October).
Geopolitical risks (notably in energy markets) could add volatility.
Fiscal stimulus remains a wild card, especially if new spending is announced in the spring budget.
Policy pulse
With inflation above target, the Bank of Canada is likely to maintain a hawkish bias. Any sign of core inflation re-acceleration could prompt further tightening or delay in easing.
Market lens
Financial markets are pricing in a slower pace of rate cuts. The CAD is expected to remain firm, especially if US-Canada rate differentials narrow. Equity market sentiment is cautious, with defensive sectors outperforming cyclicals.
Closing Thoughts
December’s 2.40% inflation print is a wake-up call for policymakers and investors alike. The upside surprise, driven by shelter and services, suggests that the path back to 2% will be bumpy. While the Bank of Canada remains data-dependent, the risk of a delayed easing cycle has risen. Markets will closely watch upcoming wage and core inflation data for confirmation of this trend.
Structural factors—aging demographics, housing shortages, and green transition costs—are likely to keep inflation volatility elevated in 2026. Upside and downside risks are finely balanced, but the bias has shifted toward a more cautious policy stance.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
Canada’s inflation data has a direct impact on the CAD, government bond yields, and rate-sensitive equities. The following tradable symbols are historically sensitive to shifts in Canadian inflation, reflecting their exposure to monetary policy, consumer demand, and cross-border capital flows. Each symbol is selected for its strong correlation or inverse relationship with inflation trends.
RY – Royal Bank of Canada: Sensitive to interest rate expectations and domestic loan growth.
SHOP – Shopify Inc.: Tracks Canadian consumer sentiment and retail spending.
EURCAD – EUR/CAD: Moves on relative inflation and rate differentials between Canada and the Eurozone.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin: Often viewed as an inflation hedge and barometer of risk sentiment.
Inflation Rate YoY vs. USDCAD since 2020
Year
CA Inflation YoY (%)
USDCAD Avg.
2020
0.70
1.34
2021
3.40
1.25
2022
6.80
1.29
2023
3.90
1.35
2024
2.70
1.36
2025
2.00
1.33
Periods of rising Canadian inflation typically coincide with a stronger CAD (lower USDCAD), as markets price in tighter monetary policy. The 2022 inflation spike saw USDCAD fall to 1.25, while disinflation in 2024–2025 led to a modest rebound in the pair.
FAQ: Canada Inflation Rate YoY – December 2025
Q: What is the latest Canada Inflation Rate YoY for December 2025?
A: The annual inflation rate rose to 2.40% in December 2025, up from 2.20% in November, according to the Sigmanomics database.
Q: How does December’s inflation compare to recent months?
A: December’s 2.40% matches October’s high and is 0.40 percentage points above the 12-month average, signaling renewed price pressures.
Q: What are the main risks for Canadian inflation in 2026?
A: Upside risks include wage growth and energy shocks; downside risks stem from global disinflation and weaker consumer demand.
Bottom line: Canada’s December 2025 inflation print signals persistent price pressures, raising the odds of a delayed rate cut cycle and keeping markets on edge for the first half of 2026.
Author: Sigmanomics Editorial Team
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 1/19/26
Sigmanomics database, Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, January 2026
Market reaction: Sigmanomics market monitor, January 19, 2026
Economic Calendar - CA Events
Friday, June 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
1.8
-0.8
0.7
0.72
High
12:30
CA
Raw Materials Prices MoM
-1
5.3
-0.6
0.03
Low
12:30
CA
Retail Sales YoY
1.8
1.7
2.2
2.32
High
12:30
CA
PPI MoM
0
1.5
0.5
0.53
Low
12:30
CA
PPI YoY
1.8
1.4
1.8
2.25
Low
12:30
CA
Retail Sales MoM
0.7
-0.3
0.7
0.63
High
12:30
CA
Raw Materials Prices YoY
7.6
2.9
4
5.50
Low
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
New Housing Price Index YoY
0
-0.1
0.1
0.08
Medium
12:30
CA
New Housing Price Index MoM
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.20
Medium
Monday, June 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Foreign Securities Purchases
41.16
14.38
12.3
15.77
Low
12:30
CA
Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians
0
35.61
16
22.70
Low
12:15
CA
Housing Starts
264.5
241.1
247
249.98
Medium
Friday, June 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Manufacturing Sales MoM
1.1
-1.8
1.2
1.43
Low
12:30
CA
Wholesale Sales MoM
2.4
-1.3
2.8
3.22
Low
12:30
CA
New Motor Vehicle Sales
175.1
171.6
180
187.81
Low
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Building Permits MoM
20.5
-12.3
2.2
6.37
Low
Friday, June 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Capacity Utilization
78.5
78.6
78.8
78.35
Low
12:30
CA
Unemployment Rate
6.2
6.1
6.2
6.22
High
12:30
CA
Part Time Employment Chg
62.4
50.3
1
15.18
Low
12:30
CA
Participation Rate
65.4
65.4
65.4
65.42
Medium
12:30
CA
Full Time Employment Chg
-35.6
40.1
4
3.13
Low
12:30
CA
Employment Change
26.7
90.4
22.5
30.73
High
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:00
CA
Ivey PMI s.a
52
63
65
64.20
High
12:30
CA
Balance of Trade
-1.05
-1.99
-1.4
-1.87
High
12:30
CA
Imports
65.5
64.8
63.1
63.55
Low
12:30
CA
Exports
64.45
62.81
64
64.48
Low
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:45
CA
BoC Interest Rate Decision
4.75
5
4.75
4.75
Medium
13:30
CA
S&P Global Services PMI
51.1
49.3
49.7
50.07
High
13:30
CA
S&P Global Composite PMI
50.6
49.3
49.6
49.58
Low
12:30
CA
Labor Productivity QoQ
-0.3
0.2
0.4
0.28
Low
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
49.3
49.4
50.2
49.83
High
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
CA
Budget Balance
-33.59
8.3
-39
-36.73
Low
12:30
CA
GDP Growth Rate Annualized
1.7
0.1
2.2
2.13
Medium
12:30
CA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.4
0
0.6
0.53
High
12:30
CA
GDP Implicit Price QoQ
-0.3
1.5
131.4
98.50
Low
12:30
CA
GDP MoM
0
0.2
0
-0.03
Medium
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Current Account
-5.4
-4.5
-5.5
-5.57
Medium
12:30
CA
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
4.2
4.5
4.1
4.23
Low
11:00
CA
CFIB Business Barometer
56.4
47.6
49
49.60
Low
Tuesday, May 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Raw Materials Prices YoY
3.1
0.4
1.5
3.00
Low
12:30
CA
Raw Materials Prices MoM
5.5
4.3
3.1
3.73
Low
12:30
CA
PPI MoM
1.5
0.9
0.8
0.83
Low
12:30
CA
PPI YoY
1.4
-0.4
-0.5
-0.05
Low
Monday, May 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Wholesale Sales MoM
2.8
-1.1
0.1
0.52
Low
Friday, May 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Manufacturing Sales MoM
1.2
-2.1
0.4
0.63
Low
12:30
CA
Retail Sales YoY
1.9
1
0.9
1.02
High
12:30
CA
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
-0.6
-0.2
0.1
0.12
High
12:30
CA
Retail Sales MoM
-0.2
-0.1
0
-0.07
High
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
New Housing Price Index MoM
0.2
0
0.1
0.10
Medium
12:30
CA
New Housing Price Index YoY
-0.1
-0.4
-0.3
-0.32
Medium
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
1.6
2
2
1.93
Medium
12:30
CA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.38
Low
12:30
CA
Inflation Rate YoY
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.68
High
12:30
CA
CPI Median YoY
2.6
2.9
2.7
2.63
High
12:30
CA
CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY
2.9
3.2
2.9
2.87
High
12:30
CA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.43
Medium
Friday, May 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians
35.61
24.16
5.1
11.80
Low
12:30
CA
Foreign Securities Purchases
14.37
-4.28
3.51
6.98
Low
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Manufacturing Sales MoM
-2.1
0.7
-2.8
-2.57
Low
12:15
CA
Housing Starts
240.2
242.3
238
240.98
Medium
Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Wholesale Sales MoM
-1.1
0
-1.3
-0.88
Low
12:30
CA
New Motor Vehicle Sales
172.1
136.62
139
146.81
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Building Permits MoM
-11.7
8.9
-4.6
-0.43
Low
Friday, May 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Full Time Employment Chg
40.1
-0.7
10
9.13
Low
12:30
CA
Participation Rate
65.4
65.3
65.3
65.32
Medium
12:30
CA
Part Time Employment Chg
50.3
-1.6
5
19.18
Low
12:30
CA
Average Hourly Wages YoY
4.8
5
4.9
4.87
Low
12:30
CA
Employment Change
90.4
-2.2
18
26.23
High
12:30
CA
Unemployment Rate
6.1
6.1
6.2
6.22
High
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:00
CA
Ivey PMI s.a
63
57.5
58.1
57.30
High
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
S&P Global Services PMI
49.3
46.4
47.7
48.07
High
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Balance of Trade
-2.28
0.48
1.5
1.03
High
Wednesday, May 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
49.4
49.8
50.2
49.83
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
GDP MoM
0.2
0.5
0.3
0.27
Medium
12:30
CA
GDP MoM
0
0.2
0.1
0.07
Medium
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
CA
Budget Balance
8.3
-2.1
1.9
4.17
Low
15:00
CA
Budget Balance
-
-2.1
1.9
4.17
Low
12:30
CA
Wholesale Sales MoM
-1.3
0
0.1
0.52
Low
11:00
CA
CFIB Business Barometer
47.5
52.9
52
52.60
Low
Thursday, April 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
4.5
3.74
3.8
3.93
Low
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Manufacturing Sales MoM
-2.8
0.7
0.1
0.33
Low
12:30
CA
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
-0.3
0.4
0
0.02
High
12:30
CA
Retail Sales YoY
1.2
0.2
1.1
1.22
High
12:30
CA
Retail Sales MoM
-0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.03
High
Monday, April 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Raw Materials Prices YoY
0.8
-4.7
-3
-1.50
Low
12:30
CA
PPI MoM
0.8
1.1
0.8
0.83
Low
12:30
CA
New Housing Price Index MoM
0
0.1
0.1
0.10
Medium
12:30
CA
New Housing Price Index YoY
-0.4
-0.4
-0.2
-0.22
Medium
12:30
CA
PPI YoY
-0.5
-1.4
-1.3
-0.85
Low
12:30
CA
Raw Materials Prices MoM
4.7
2.1
2.9
3.53
Low
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Foreign Securities Purchases
-8.78
8.88
10.1
13.57
Low
12:30
CA
Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians
24.19
-7.61
-1.5
5.20
Low
Tuesday, April 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.6
0.3
0.7
0.63
Medium
12:30
CA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2
2.1
1.8
1.73
Medium
12:30
CA
CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.17
High
12:30
CA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
12:30
CA
CPI Median YoY
2.8
3
3
2.93
High
12:30
CA
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.68
High
12:15
CA
Housing Starts
242.2
260
244
246.98
Medium
Monday, April 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Manufacturing Sales MoM
0.7
0.2
0.7
0.93
Low
12:30
CA
New Motor Vehicle Sales
137.69
116.87
119
126.81
Low
12:30
CA
Wholesale Sales MoM
0
-0.2
0.8
1.22
Low
Wednesday, April 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:45
CA
BoC Interest Rate Decision
5
5
5
5.00
Medium
12:30
CA
Building Permits MoM
9.3
12.9
-4.5
-0.33
Low
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:00
CA
Ivey PMI s.a
57.5
53.9
54.2
53.40
High
12:30
CA
Full Time Employment Chg
-0.7
70.6
-5
-5.87
Low
12:30
CA
Average Hourly Wages YoY
5
4.9
4.7
4.67
Low
12:30
CA
Employment Change
-2.2
40.7
25
33.23
High
12:30
CA
Participation Rate
65.3
65.3
65.3
65.32
Medium
12:30
CA
Part Time Employment Chg
-1.6
-29.9
20
34.18
Low
12:30
CA
Unemployment Rate
6.1
5.8
5.9
5.92
High
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Imports
65.23
62.37
61
61.45
Low
12:30
CA
Exports
66.62
62.98
61.5
61.98
Low
12:30
CA
Balance of Trade
1.39
0.61
0.8
0.33
High
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
S&P Global Composite PMI
47
47.1
48.2
48.18
Low
13:30
CA
S&P Global Services PMI
46.4
46.6
47.2
47.57
High
Monday, April 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
49.8
49.7
50.3
49.93
High
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
GDP MoM
0.6
-0.1
0.4
0.37
Medium
12:30
CA
GDP MoM
0.4
0.6
0.1
0.07
Medium
12:30
CA
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
3.9
3.9
3.9
4.03
Low
11:00
CA
CFIB Business Barometer
52.7
55.1
52
52.60
Low
Tuesday, March 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Wholesale Sales MoM
0.8
0.1
0.2
0.62
Low
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Manufacturing Sales MoM
0.7
0.2
0.3
0.53
Low
Friday, March 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
CA
Budget Balance
-2.1
-4.47
-3.9
-1.63
Low
12:30
CA
Retail Sales YoY
0.9
2.9
2.5
2.62
High
12:30
CA
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.5
0.6
-0.4
-0.38
High
12:30
CA
Retail Sales MoM
-0.3
0.9
-0.4
-0.47
High
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
New Housing Price Index MoM
0.1
-0.1
0
0.00
Medium
12:30
CA
New Housing Price Index YoY
-0.4
-0.7
-0.5
-0.52
Medium
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
CPI Median YoY
3.1
3.3
3.2
3.13
High
12:30
CA
CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.27
High
12:30
CA
Inflation Rate MoM
0.3
0
0.6
0.53
Medium
12:30
CA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.1
2.4
2.3
2.23
Medium
12:30
CA
Inflation Rate YoY
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.08
High
12:30
CA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.28
Low
Monday, March 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
PPI YoY
-1.7
-2.9
-2
-1.55
Low
12:30
CA
Raw Materials Prices MoM
2.1
1.2
0.8
1.43
Low
12:30
CA
Raw Materials Prices YoY
-4.7
-6.5
-3.8
-2.30
Low
12:30
CA
PPI MoM
0.7
-0.1
0.1
0.13
Low
Friday, March 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians
-7.59
29.4
8.1
14.80
Low
12:30
CA
Foreign Securities Purchases
8.88
10.8
2.05
5.52
Low
12:30
CA
Wholesale Sales MoM
0.1
-0.3
-0.6
-0.18
Low
12:15
CA
Housing Starts
253.5
223.2
230
232.98
Medium
Thursday, March 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
12:30
CA
Manufacturing Sales MoM
0.2
-1.1
0.4
0.63
Low
12:30
CA
New Motor Vehicle Sales
116.87
128.83
122
129.81
Low
Friday, March 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
Capacity Utilization
78.7
78.8
80.2
79.75
Low
13:30
CA
Part Time Employment Chg
-29.9
48.9
2
16.18
Medium
13:30
CA
Unemployment Rate
5.8
5.7
5.8
5.82
High
13:30
CA
Full Time Employment Chg
70.6
-11.6
16
15.13
Medium
13:30
CA
Employment Change
40.7
37.3
20
28.23
High
13:30
CA
Average Hourly Wages YoY
4.9
5.3
5.3
5.27
Low
13:30
CA
Participation Rate
65.3
65.3
65.3
65.32
Medium
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
Exports
62.29
63.37
65
65.48
Low
13:30
CA
Balance of Trade
0.5
-0.86
0.1
-0.37
High
13:30
CA
Imports
61.79
64.24
65.7
66.15
Low
13:30
CA
Building Permits MoM
13.5
-11.5
5.5
9.67
Low
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
CA
Ivey PMI s.a
53.9
56.5
56
55.20
High
14:45
CA
BoC Interest Rate Decision
5
5
5
5.00
Medium
13:30
CA
Labor Productivity QoQ
0.4
-0.5
0.2
0.08
Low
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:30
CA
S&P Global Services PMI
46.6
45.8
46.5
46.87
High
14:30
CA
S&P Global Composite PMI
47.1
46.3
47
46.98
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:30
CA
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
49.7
48.3
48.7
48.33
High
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
GDP Implicit Price QoQ
1.4
1.7
1.3
-31.60
Low
13:30
CA
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
-0.1
0.3
0.23
High
13:30
CA
GDP Growth Rate Annualized
1
-0.5
0.8
0.72
Medium
13:30
CA
GDP MoM
0
0.2
0.2
0.17
Medium
13:30
CA
GDP MoM
0.4
0.3
0
-0.03
Medium
12:00
CA
CFIB Business Barometer
54.9
48.8
49.4
50.00
Low
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
Current Account
-1.62
-4.74
-1.25
-1.32
Medium
13:30
CA
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
3.8
3.9
4.1
4.23
Low
Monday, February 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
Manufacturing Sales MoM
0.4
-0.7
0.3
0.53
Low
13:30
CA
Wholesale Sales MoM
-0.6
0.3
0.1
0.52
Low
Friday, February 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
CA
Budget Balance
-4.47
-4.01
-2
0.27
Low
Thursday, February 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
Retail Sales YoY
2.9
1.8
2.5
2.62
High
13:30
CA
Retail Sales MoM
0.9
0
0.8
0.73
High
13:30
CA
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
0.6
-0.4
0.7
0.72
High
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
New Housing Price Index YoY
-0.7
-0.9
-0.7
-0.72
Medium
13:30
CA
New Housing Price Index MoM
-0.1
0
0.1
0.10
Medium
Tuesday, February 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
CPI Median YoY
3.3
3.5
3.6
3.53
High
13:30
CA
Inflation Rate MoM
0
-0.3
0.4
0.33
Medium
13:30
CA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
0.1
-0.5
0.3
0.28
Low
13:30
CA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.4
2.6
2.5
2.43
Medium
13:30
CA
CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY
3.4
3.7
3.6
3.57
High
13:30
CA
Inflation Rate YoY
2.9
3.4
3.3
3.28
High
Monday, February 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
PPI YoY
-2.9
-2.8
-2.7
-2.25
Low
13:30
CA
Raw Materials Prices MoM
1.2
-4.9
0.7
1.33
Low
13:30
CA
Raw Materials Prices YoY
-6.4
-7.9
-7.4
-5.90
Low
13:30
CA
PPI MoM
-0.1
-1.6
-0.1
-0.07
Low
Friday, February 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
Foreign Securities Purchases
10.44
11.31
-6.45
-2.98
Low
13:30
CA
Wholesale Sales MoM
0.3
0.9
0.8
1.22
Low
13:30
CA
Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians
29.4
12.38
10
16.70
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
Manufacturing Sales MoM
-0.7
1.5
-0.6
-0.37
Low
13:15
CA
Housing Starts
223.6
249
235
237.98
Medium
Wednesday, February 14, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
New Motor Vehicle Sales
128.19
143.72
130
137.81
Low
Friday, February 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
Unemployment Rate
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.92
High
13:30
CA
Part Time Employment Chg
48.9
23.6
-15
-0.82
Medium
13:30
CA
Full Time Employment Chg
-11.6
12.1
30
29.13
Medium
13:30
CA
Employment Change
37.3
12.3
15
23.23
High
13:30
CA
Participation Rate
65.3
65.5
65.3
65.32
Medium
13:30
CA
Average Hourly Wages YoY
5.3
5.7
5.5
5.47
Low
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
Imports
64.39
64.27
64.3
64.75
Low
13:30
CA
Exports
64.07
65.33
66.1
66.58
Low
13:30
CA
Balance of Trade
-0.31
1.06
1.1
0.63
High
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
CA
Ivey PMI s.a
56.5
56.3
55
54.20
High
13:30
CA
Building Permits MoM
-14
-5
1.8
5.97
Low
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:30
CA
S&P Global Composite PMI
46.3
44.7
44.4
44.38
Low
14:30
CA
S&P Global Services PMI
45.8
44.6
44.3
44.67
High
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:30
CA
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
48.3
45.4
45
44.63
High
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
GDP MoM
0.3
0.2
0
-0.03
Medium
13:30
CA
GDP MoM
0.2
0
0.1
0.07
Medium
Friday, January 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
16:00
CA
Budget Balance
-4.01
-6.33
-4.3
-2.03
Low
13:30
CA
Wholesale Sales MoM
0.8
0.9
0.3
0.72
Low
Thursday, January 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
Manufacturing Sales MoM
-0.6
1.2
0.4
0.63
Low
13:30
CA
Average Weekly Earnings YoY
4.1
3.9
4.1
4.23
Low
12:00
CA
CFIB Business Barometer
49
47.04
48
48.60
Low
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:45
CA
BoC Interest Rate Decision
5
5
5
5.00
Medium
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
New Housing Price Index MoM
0
-0.2
0
0.00
Medium
13:30
CA
New Housing Price Index YoY
-0.9
-0.9
-0.9
-0.92
Medium
Friday, January 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
Retail Sales YoY
1.8
1.9
0.8
0.92
High
13:30
CA
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
-0.5
0.4
-0.1
-0.08
High
13:30
CA
Retail Sales MoM
-0.2
0.5
0
-0.07
High
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
PPI MoM
-1.5
-0.3
-0.7
-0.67
Low
13:30
CA
Foreign Securities Purchases
11.43
-15.88
9
12.47
Low
13:30
CA
Raw Materials Prices YoY
-7.9
-5.4
-3
-1.50
Low
13:30
CA
PPI YoY
-2.7
-2
-1.9
-1.45
Low
13:30
CA
Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians
12.53
-8.2
12
18.70
Low
13:30
CA
Raw Materials Prices MoM
-4.9
-4.9
-1.6
-0.97
Low
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
CPI Trimmed-Mean YoY
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.47
High
13:30
CA
Inflation Rate MoM
-0.3
0.1
-0.3
-0.37
Medium
13:30
CA
CPI Median YoY
3.6
3.6
3.4
3.33
High
13:30
CA
Core Inflation Rate MoM
-0.5
0.1
-0.3
-0.32
Low
13:30
CA
Core Inflation Rate YoY
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.73
Medium
13:30
CA
Inflation Rate YoY
3.4
3.1
3.4
3.38
High
13:15
CA
Housing Starts
249.3
210.9
243
245.98
Medium
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
New Motor Vehicle Sales
143.72
151.14
154
161.81
Low
13:30
CA
Wholesale Sales MoM
0.9
-0.5
0.8
1.22
Low
13:30
CA
Manufacturing Sales MoM
1.2
-2.9
1.1
1.33
Low
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
13:30
CA
Imports
64.17
62.97
63.1
63.55
Low
13:30
CA
Balance of Trade
1.57
3.2
2
1.53
High
13:30
CA
Exports
65.74
66.17
65.4
65.88
Low
13:30
CA
Building Permits MoM
-3.9
3
-1.7
2.47
Low
Friday, January 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
15:00
CA
Ivey PMI s.a
56.3
54.7
52.4
51.60
High
13:30
CA
Average Hourly Wages YoY
5.7
5
5.1
5.07
Low
13:30
CA
Unemployment Rate
5.8
5.8
5.9
5.92
High
13:30
CA
Full Time Employment Chg
-23.5
59.6
24
23.13
Medium
13:30
CA
Employment Change
0.1
24.9
13.5
21.73
High
13:30
CA
Participation Rate
65.4
65.6
65.7
65.72
Medium
13:30
CA
Part Time Employment Chg
23.6
-34.7
-10
4.18
Medium
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
14:30
CA
S&P Global Composite PMI
44.7
44.8
45
44.98
Low
14:30
CA
S&P Global Services PMI
44.6
44.5
44
44.37
High
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Canada Inflation Rate YoY Rises to 2.40 Percent in December December 2025 Inflation Rate YoY Surpasses Market Expectations The Inflation Rate YoY measures the annual change in consumer prices, reflecting how much prices have increased compared to the same month last year. For Canada (CA), December 2025’s Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 2.40%, up from 2.20% in November and above the consensus estimate of 2.10%. This marks the highest inflation reading since October 2025 and signals persistent price pressures near the Bank of Canada’s 2% target midpoint. The monthly increase suggests that inflationary forces remain resilient, especially in shelter and food sectors. Morgan Stanley’s chief economist noted, “Canada’s inflation persistence complicates the central bank’s path, likely delaying rate cuts as core inflation remains sticky.” The stronger-than-expected Inflation Rate YoY in CA has already pushed the Canadian dollar higher and increased bond yields, reflecting market anticipation of a prolonged hawkish monetary stance.
Chart Dynamics
December’s 2.40% inflation print is 0.20 percentage points above November’s 2.20% and 0.40 pp above the 12-month average of 2.00%. The chart below illustrates a U-shaped trend: inflation bottomed at 1.70% in August and June, then rebounded sharply in October and December. This reversal signals that disinflationary momentum has stalled, with headline CPI now at its joint-highest level since April 2025.
Compared to a year ago (December 2024: 2.30%), inflation is up 0.10 pp. The last six months show a clear uptrend: June (1.70%), July (1.90%), August (1.70%), September (1.90%), October (2.40%), November (2.20%), December (2.40%).