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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Manufacturing Sales MoM fell to -0.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Canada Manufacturing Sales MoM fell to -0.4% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 0.5% from June's 0.1% reading. The reading missed the -0.2% consensus by 0.2%. Manufacturing Sales MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Manufacturing Sales MoM averaged -0.07%, vs 3.78% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 39th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.4
Actual
-0.2
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -0.33
Actual: -0.2
Error: -0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing Sales MoM (Canada) was reported at -0.4% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.2% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.56%, ranging from -3.3% to 4.6% across 20 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.1%, down from the prior three at 2.9%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.34%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.36%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Manufacturing Sales MoM has averaged 0.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts (Sep 16) and New Housing Price Index MoM (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Manufacturing Sales MoM - CA
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About Manufacturing Sales MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
Manufacturing Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of sales made by manufacturers in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and performance of the manufacturing sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic growth. A positive trend in Manufacturing Sales MoM indicates an increase in consumer demand and economic activity, while a negative trend may signal a slowdown in the economy. As such, this indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and forecasts.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus -0.2 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -0.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.65 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Median CPI YoY | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 80.7 | 82.2 | 82.4 | 81.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.32 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 190.2 | 190.1 | 190.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -0.6 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -0.47 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 229.1 | 237.5 | 240.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Building Permits MoM | 18.5 | -5.8 | -5.80 | Low | |