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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada New Housing Price Index MoM fell to -0.2% in September 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada New Housing Price Index MoM fell to -0.2% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.1% from August's -0.1% reading. The reading missed the -0.1% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.17%. Over the past 3 months, New Housing Price Index MoM averaged -0.1%, vs -0.27% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 42nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.2
Actual
-0.1
Consensus
-0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -0.13
Actual: -0.2
Error: +0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Housing Price Index MoM (Canada) was reported at -0.2% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.1% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.16%, ranging from -0.4% to 0.3% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.13%, up from the prior three at -0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.2%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.16%). In October readings over the past 3 years, New Housing Price Index MoM has averaged -0.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with CAD/JPY (Bullish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Gross Domestic Product MoM (Oct 30) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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New Housing Price Index MoM - CA
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About New Housing Price Index MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
The New Housing Price Index MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the selling prices of new residential properties in a given month. This index provides valuable insights into the overall health and trends of the housing market, as well as the impact of new construction and development on the economy. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and industry professionals to make informed decisions about real estate investments and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -0.2 %, consensus -0.1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -0.1 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with CAD/JPY (Bullish CAD, r=0.67) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low |