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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada New Housing Price Index MoM held to -0.1% in July 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased August 2026
Canada New Housing Price Index MoM held to -0.1% in July 2026, released August 2026. The reading missed the 0.0% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.19%. Over the past 3 months, New Housing Price Index MoM averaged -0.2%, vs -0.1% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 63rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.1
Actual
0
Consensus
-0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -0.03
Actual: -0.1
Error: +0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Housing Price Index MoM (Canada) was reported at -0.1% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.19%, ranging from -0.4% to 0.3% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.17%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.21%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.16%). In August readings over the past 3 years, New Housing Price Index MoM has averaged 0%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with CAD/JPY (Bullish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts (Sep 16) and Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Sep 24).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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New Housing Price Index MoM - CA
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About New Housing Price Index MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
The New Housing Price Index MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the selling prices of new residential properties in a given month. This index provides valuable insights into the overall health and trends of the housing market, as well as the impact of new construction and development on the economy. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and industry professionals to make informed decisions about real estate investments and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.1 %, consensus 0 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.1 %. Before that (May 2026): -0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with CAD/JPY (Bullish CAD, r=0.66) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.65 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Median CPI YoY | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 80.7 | 82.2 | 82.4 | 81.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.32 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 190.2 | 190.1 | 190.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -0.6 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -0.47 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 229.1 | 237.5 | 240.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Building Permits MoM | 18.5 | -5.8 | -5.80 | Low | |