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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Part Time Employment Chg fell to -32.9K in September 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada Part Time Employment Chg fell to -32.9K in September 2026, released October 2026, down 27.1K from August's -5.8K reading. The reading missed the 27K consensus by 59.9K. Part Time Employment Chg has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Part Time Employment Chg averaged 15.4K, vs -6.57K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 28th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-32.9
Actual
27
Consensus
-5.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±50.54 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 32.2
Actual: -32.9
Error: +65.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Part Time Employment Chg (Canada) was reported at -33 thousand in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 27 thousand by 60 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of -6 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -8 thousand, ranging from -70 thousand to 63 thousand across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -1 thousand, up from the prior three at -8 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 44 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 38 thousand). In October readings over the past 3 years, Part Time Employment Chg has averaged -48 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 51 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Gross Domestic Product MoM (Oct 30) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Part Time Employment Chg - CA
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About Part Time Employment Chg — Canada
DEFINITION
Part Time Employment Chg is a financial indicator that measures the change in the number of individuals employed in part-time positions. This data is often used to assess the overall health of the job market and can provide insights into shifts in employment trends and economic conditions. It is a valuable tool for businesses, investors, and policymakers to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -32.9 K, consensus 27 K. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -5.8 K. Before that (Jul 2026): 36.6 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bearish USD, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low |