Canada’s part-time employment change for October 2025, as reported by the Sigmanomics database, registered a decline of 45.60K jobs. This figure, released on October 10, 2025, marks an improvement from September’s steep 59.70K fall but remains well below the market consensus estimate of -20K. The data reflects ongoing labor market adjustments amid a complex macroeconomic environment.

Drivers this month

• Service sector contraction amid consumer caution
• Manufacturing part-time roles trimmed due to supply chain disruptions
• Seasonal adjustments less favorable than typical for October

Policy pulse

The reading remains consistent with Bank of Canada’s recent signals of a tightening bias. The persistent part-time job losses suggest labor market slack is increasing, potentially easing wage pressures but complicating inflation targeting.

Market lens

Financial markets showed a muted response in the first hour post-release. The Canadian dollar (CAD/USD) dipped marginally by 0.10%, while 2-year government bond yields edged down by 3 basis points, reflecting cautious sentiment and recalibration of monetary policy expectations.

Part-time employment is a critical labor market indicator, often signaling shifts in underemployment and economic health. The October 2025 decline of 45.60K follows a volatile 2025 trend, with earlier months showing gains (e.g., 69.50K in July) and sharp losses (e.g., -59.70K in September). The 12-month average change stands near -5.50K, indicating a subtle but persistent downward drift.

Historical comparisons

• October 2024: 15.20K part-time jobs, reflecting post-pandemic recovery
• Mid-2025 peak in July: 69.50K, the strongest gain in 18 months
• Recent three-month average (Aug-Oct 2025): -31.30K, signaling weakening momentum

Monetary policy & financial conditions

Bank of Canada’s ongoing rate hikes, now at 5.25%, have tightened credit conditions. Higher borrowing costs and cautious business sentiment have contributed to reduced part-time hiring, especially in cyclical sectors.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Federal fiscal restraint, including slower spending growth and targeted program cuts, has limited stimulus effects. Provincial budget pressures further constrain public sector part-time employment growth.

Figure 1 (not shown) would illustrate the monthly part-time employment changes over the past 18 months, highlighting the recent downward trend after mid-year gains.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: CAD/USD weakened by 0.10%, 2-year yields fell 3 bps, reflecting cautious investor sentiment and recalibrated rate hike expectations.

Looking ahead, the part-time employment trend in Canada faces multiple headwinds and opportunities. The interplay of monetary policy, fiscal measures, and external risks will shape labor market dynamics.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Global supply chains stabilize, boosting manufacturing part-time roles
• Consumer confidence rebounds, supporting service sector hiring
• Monetary policy pauses, easing credit conditions

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Continued moderate part-time job losses, reflecting cautious business investment
• Inflation pressures gradually ease, allowing steady monetary policy
• Fiscal policy remains neutral, with no major stimulus or cuts

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Geopolitical shocks disrupt trade, deepening part-time job cuts
• Inflation spikes force aggressive rate hikes, tightening labor market further
• Fiscal austerity intensifies, reducing public sector employment

Canada’s part-time employment decline in October 2025 signals ongoing labor market challenges amid tightening monetary policy and fiscal restraint. While the drop is less severe than September’s, it underscores structural shifts and external uncertainties. Policymakers must balance inflation control with labor market health to sustain growth. Financial markets remain cautious, reflecting the delicate macroeconomic environment.

Key Markets Likely to React to Part Time Employment Chg

Part-time employment changes in Canada influence sectors sensitive to labor costs and consumer spending. Markets tracking labor market health and monetary policy expectations tend to react to these data releases. The following symbols historically correlate with Canadian labor market shifts:

• RY – Royal Bank of Canada, sensitive to credit demand and economic activity.
• CADUSD – Canadian dollar vs. US dollar, reflecting currency sentiment tied to economic data.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often reacting to risk sentiment shifts influenced by economic data.
• SHOP – Shopify, linked to consumer spending trends in Canada.
• EURCAD – Euro vs. Canadian dollar, sensitive to cross-border trade and economic outlook.

FAQs

What does the Part Time Employment Change indicate?

The indicator measures the net monthly change in part-time jobs, signaling labor market health and underemployment trends.

How does this data affect monetary policy?

Part-time employment trends influence inflation and wage pressures, guiding central bank decisions on interest rates.

Why is the October 2025 reading significant?

It reflects ongoing labor market softness amid tightening monetary and fiscal conditions, impacting economic growth forecasts.

Takeaway: Canada’s part-time employment decline in October 2025 highlights persistent labor market challenges amid tightening policies and external risks, warranting close monitoring.