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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Producer Price Index MoM fell to 2.0% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Canada Producer Price Index MoM fell to 2.0% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.4% from March's 2.4% reading. The print exceeded the 1.3% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.79%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index MoM averaged 1.4%, vs 1.8% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 83rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2
Actual
1.3
Consensus
2.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.47 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.95
Actual: 2
Error: -1.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index MoM (Canada) was reported at 2% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.3% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.94%, ranging from -0.5% to 2.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.7%, up from the prior three at 1.07%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/CAD (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.48%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Producer Price Index MoM - CA
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About Producer Price Index MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's Producer Price Index MoM rose 2.000000% in May, missing the 1.300000% estimate but down from April's 2.400000%. May's increase signals a deceleration in producer price inflation compared to the prior month. Market participants will watch upcoming inflation data closely amid this moderation. Updated 5/22/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2 %, consensus 1.3 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 2.4 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/CAD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.69) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.