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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 14.5% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 14.5% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1.3% from August's 13.2% reading. The reading matched the 14.1% consensus. Producer Price Index YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 12.95%, vs 12.47% in the prior 3-month window. Producer Price Index YoY is now the highest in 20 months.
Latest Release
14.5
Actual
14.1
Consensus
13.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.57 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 14.3
Actual: 14.5
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Canada) was reported at 14.5% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 14.1% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 13.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.07%, ranging from 5.4% to 14.5% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 13.47%, up from the prior three at 12.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.64%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.65%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.57%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - CA
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's Producer Price Index YoY rose to 14.500% in October, surpassing the 14.100% estimate. This marks an increase from September's 13.500%, indicating accelerating inflationary pressures in producer prices. Market participants will watch for further central bank responses amid persistent price gains. Updated 10/22/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 14.5 %, consensus 14.1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 13.5 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 12.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD, r=-0.48) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low |