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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Producer Price Index YoY fell to 12.4% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Canada Producer Price Index YoY fell to 12.4% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 1.2% from May's 13.6% reading. The reading matched the 12.8% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 5.89%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 12.5%, vs 6.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 91st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
12.4
Actual
12.8
Consensus
13.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.61 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 13.05
Actual: 12.4
Error: +0.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Canada) was reported at 12.4% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 12.8% by 0.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 13.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 7.24%, ranging from 2.6% to 13.6% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 12.47%, up from the prior three at 5.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.59%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.8%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/CAD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish CAD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.61%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Aug 4) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - CA
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's Producer Price Index YoY for June came in at 12.400000%, missing the 12.800000% estimate and down from May's 13.600000%. The data shows a continued deceleration in producer price inflation, easing from the prior month’s peak. Markets are likely to interpret this as a sign of moderating inflationary pressures ahead of upcoming central bank policy decisions. Updated 7/26/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 12.4 %, consensus 12.8 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 13.6 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 11.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/CAD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.4 | 3.67 | 3.7 | 3.55 | Low |