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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 11.4% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Canada Producer Price Index YoY climbed to 11.4% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 3.6% from March's 7.8% reading. The print exceeded the 10.0% consensus by 1.4%. Producer Price Index YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 6.6%, vs 5.75% in the prior 3-month window. Producer Price Index YoY is now the highest in 15 months.
Latest Release
11.4
Actual
10
Consensus
7.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.57 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 9.95
Actual: 11.4
Error: -1.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Bearish CAD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Canada) was reported at 11.4% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 10% by 1.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 7.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.93%, ranging from 1.2% to 11.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 7.4%, up from the prior three at 5.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/CAD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.57%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - CA
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's Producer Price Index YoY surged to 11.400000% in May, sharply beating the 10.000000% estimate and rising from April's 7.800000%. This acceleration signals mounting inflationary pressures in the supply chain compared to the previous month. Market participants will closely watch upcoming inflation data and central bank responses amid this unexpected jump. Updated 5/22/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 11.4 %, consensus 10 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 7.8 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 5.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/CAD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.54) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.