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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Producer Price Index YoY held to 12.4% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Canada Producer Price Index YoY held to 12.4% in July 2026, released August 2026. The reading matched the 12.0% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 6.82%. Over the past 3 months, Producer Price Index YoY averaged 13.0%, vs 8.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
12.4
Actual
12
Consensus
12.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.57 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 12.1
Actual: 12.4
Error: -0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Canada) was reported at 12.4% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 12% by 0.4%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.22%, ranging from 4% to 13.6% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 12.8%, up from the prior three at 7.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.53%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.69%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.57%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts (Sep 16) and New Housing Price Index MoM (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - CA
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's Producer Price Index YoY held steady at 12.4% in August, matching July's reading and slightly beating the 12.0% estimate. The index remains elevated compared to May's 11.4% and June's 13.6%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in producer prices. Market focus will remain on upcoming inflation data and central bank signals amid this sustained price growth. Updated 8/20/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 12.4 %, consensus 12 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 12.4 %. Before that (May 2026): 13.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.65 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Median CPI YoY | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 80.7 | 82.2 | 82.4 | 81.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.32 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 190.2 | 190.1 | 190.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -0.6 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -0.47 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 229.1 | 237.5 | 240.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Building Permits MoM | 18.5 | -5.8 | -5.80 | Low | |