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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Raw Materials Prices MoM fell to -6.9% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Canada Raw Materials Prices MoM fell to -6.9% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 7.4% from May's 0.5% reading. The reading missed the -1.5% consensus by 5.4%. Raw Materials Prices MoM has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Raw Materials Prices MoM averaged 1.65%, vs 6.77% in the prior 3-month window. Raw Materials Prices MoM is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
-6.9
Actual
-1.5
Consensus
0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.71 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -1.63
Actual: -6.9
Error: +5.28
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Raw Materials Prices MoM (Canada) was reported at -6.9% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -1.5% by 5.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.8%, ranging from -6.9% to 7.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -1.2%, down from the prior three at 2.87%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.38%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.37%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Raw Materials Prices MoM has averaged -1.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.71%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Aug 4) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Raw Materials Prices MoM - CA
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About Raw Materials Prices MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
Raw Materials Prices MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of raw materials from one month to the next. This indicator is used to track the cost of essential materials such as metals, energy, and agricultural products, which can have a significant impact on the overall economy. It provides valuable insights into the current state of the market and can help businesses and investors make informed decisions regarding their purchasing and investment strategies. A higher Raw Materials Prices MoM may indicate inflationary pressures, while a lower reading may suggest deflationary trends. Overall, this indicator is a key tool for monitoring the health of the economy and predicting potential shifts in market conditions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -6.9 %, consensus -1.5 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.7 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.4 | 3.67 | 3.7 | 3.55 | Low |