Canada Raw Materials Prices MoM: January’s 7.7% Surge Resets Market Expectations

Canada’s raw materials price index posted a 7.7% month-over-month increase in January 2026, according to official data released February 20. This outsized move follows a subdued 0.3% rise in December 2025, breaking a string of moderate readings and signaling renewed cost pressures across the supply chain.

Chart Dynamics

January’s 7.7% MoM print dwarfs December’s 0.3% and the 12-month average of 0.5%. The last comparable surge occurred in early 2021, underscoring the rarity of this month’s move. Over the past six months, monthly changes ranged from -0.6% to 1.7%, making January’s spike a clear outlier. Volatility in raw materials pricing has returned to levels not seen in over two years.

What This Chart Tells Us: January’s spike signals a break from the recent period of stability. The abrupt acceleration in input costs could ripple through manufacturing and consumer prices, raising the risk of broader inflationary pressures if sustained.

Policy Pulse

The Bank of Canada faces renewed scrutiny as raw materials inflation far exceeds its 2% target. Policymakers will monitor for pass-through effects to core inflation.

Key Markets Reacting to Raw Materials Prices MoM

Canada’s raw materials price surge has triggered notable moves across equities, forex, and crypto markets. Resource-linked stocks and the Canadian dollar saw immediate gains, while global risk sentiment shifted. The following symbols have shown the strongest historical correlations with raw materials price swings:

• AAPL — Sensitive to global supply chain costs; higher input prices can compress margins.
• USDCAD — Canadian dollar typically strengthens as commodity prices rise.
• BTCUSD — Crypto markets often reflect broader inflation and risk sentiment shifts.

Canada’s raw materials price index just posted its sharpest monthly gain in years, resetting inflation and market expectations.

Updated 2/20/26

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

1. [1] Statistics Canada, Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI), official release February 20, 2026; Sigmanomics Economic Database, accessed February 20, 2026.