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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Raw Materials Prices MoM climbed to -2.2% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Canada Raw Materials Prices MoM climbed to -2.2% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 4.5% from June's -6.7% reading. The reading missed the -1.8% consensus by 0.4%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.89%. Over the past 3 months, Raw Materials Prices MoM averaged -3.1%, vs 5.07% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 20th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-2.2
Actual
-1.8
Consensus
-6.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.71 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -2.78
Actual: -2.2
Error: -0.58
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Raw Materials Prices MoM (Canada) was reported at -2.2% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -1.8% by 0.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of -6.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.55%, ranging from -6.9% to 7.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -2.8%, down from the prior three at 3.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.5%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.36%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Raw Materials Prices MoM has averaged -0.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.71%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts (Sep 16) and New Housing Price Index MoM (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Raw Materials Prices MoM - CA
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About Raw Materials Prices MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
Raw Materials Prices MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of raw materials from one month to the next. This indicator is used to track the cost of essential materials such as metals, energy, and agricultural products, which can have a significant impact on the overall economy. It provides valuable insights into the current state of the market and can help businesses and investors make informed decisions regarding their purchasing and investment strategies. A higher Raw Materials Prices MoM may indicate inflationary pressures, while a lower reading may suggest deflationary trends. Overall, this indicator is a key tool for monitoring the health of the economy and predicting potential shifts in market conditions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -2.2 %, consensus -1.8 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -6.9 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.65 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Median CPI YoY | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 80.7 | 82.2 | 82.4 | 81.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.32 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 190.2 | 190.1 | 190.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -0.6 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -0.47 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 229.1 | 237.5 | 240.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Building Permits MoM | 18.5 | -5.8 | -5.80 | Low | |