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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Raw Materials Prices MoM climbed to 4.8% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada Raw Materials Prices MoM climbed to 4.8% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1.5% from August's 3.3% reading. The print exceeded the 3.1% consensus by 1.7%. Raw Materials Prices MoM has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Raw Materials Prices MoM averaged 0.45%, vs -1.2% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 89th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.8
Actual
3.1
Consensus
3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.31 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 2.53
Actual: 4.8
Error: -2.27
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Raw Materials Prices MoM (Canada) was reported at 4.8% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.1% by 1.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.23%, ranging from -6.9% to 7.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.9%, up from the prior three at -1.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.74%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.94%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Raw Materials Prices MoM has averaged 1.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/CAD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.31%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Raw Materials Prices MoM - CA
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About Raw Materials Prices MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
Raw Materials Prices MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of raw materials from one month to the next. This indicator is used to track the cost of essential materials such as metals, energy, and agricultural products, which can have a significant impact on the overall economy. It provides valuable insights into the current state of the market and can help businesses and investors make informed decisions regarding their purchasing and investment strategies. A higher Raw Materials Prices MoM may indicate inflationary pressures, while a lower reading may suggest deflationary trends. Overall, this indicator is a key tool for monitoring the health of the economy and predicting potential shifts in market conditions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 4.8 %, consensus 3.1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 3.1 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -2.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/CAD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.47) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low |