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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Raw Materials Prices MoM fell to 2.6% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Canada Raw Materials Prices MoM fell to 2.6% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 9.3% from March's 11.9% reading. The reading matched the 2.7% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.83%. Over the past 3 months, Raw Materials Prices MoM averaged 6.3%, vs 4.0% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 76th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
2.6
Actual
2.7
Consensus
11.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.02 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.8
Actual: 2.6
Error: -0.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Raw Materials Prices MoM (Canada) was reported at 2.6% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.7% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 11.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.65%, ranging from -0.6% to 7.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.63%, up from the prior three at 1.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.29%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.27%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Raw Materials Prices MoM has averaged 1.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.02%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Raw Materials Prices MoM - CA
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About Raw Materials Prices MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
Raw Materials Prices MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of raw materials from one month to the next. This indicator is used to track the cost of essential materials such as metals, energy, and agricultural products, which can have a significant impact on the overall economy. It provides valuable insights into the current state of the market and can help businesses and investors make informed decisions regarding their purchasing and investment strategies. A higher Raw Materials Prices MoM may indicate inflationary pressures, while a lower reading may suggest deflationary trends. Overall, this indicator is a key tool for monitoring the health of the economy and predicting potential shifts in market conditions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 2.6 %, consensus 2.7 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 12 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.