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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Raw Materials Prices YoY fell to 18.1% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Canada Raw Materials Prices YoY fell to 18.1% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 2.9% from June's 21.0% reading. The reading matched the 18.0% consensus. Raw Materials Prices YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Raw Materials Prices YoY averaged 27.05%, vs 21.27% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 80th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
18.1
Actual
18
Consensus
21
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.43 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 16.9
Actual: 18.1
Error: -1.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Raw Materials Prices YoY (Canada) was reported at 18.1% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 18% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 21%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 14.42%, ranging from 3.2% to 33.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 24.07%, up from the prior three at 16.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.41%) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.89%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Raw Materials Prices YoY has averaged 7.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.43%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts (Sep 16) and New Housing Price Index MoM (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Raw Materials Prices YoY - CA
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About Raw Materials Prices YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Raw Materials Prices YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of raw materials over a 12-month period. This indicator is used by investors and analysts to track the overall trend in the cost of raw materials, which can have a significant impact on the profitability and competitiveness of companies in various industries. A higher YoY increase in raw material prices may indicate inflationary pressures and potential cost increases for businesses, while a decrease may suggest deflationary conditions and potential cost savings. Overall, Raw Materials Prices YoY provides valuable insights into the health of the economy and the potential risks and opportunities for businesses.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 18.1 %, consensus 18 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 20.7 %. Before that (May 2026): 33.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.65 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Median CPI YoY | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 80.7 | 82.2 | 82.4 | 81.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.32 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 190.2 | 190.1 | 190.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -0.6 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -0.47 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 229.1 | 237.5 | 240.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Building Permits MoM | 18.5 | -5.8 | -5.80 | Low | |