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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Raw Materials Prices YoY climbed to 33.4% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Canada Raw Materials Prices YoY climbed to 33.4% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 1.9% from April's 31.5% reading. The reading missed the 37.0% consensus by 3.6%. Raw Materials Prices YoY has now risen for 7 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Raw Materials Prices YoY averaged 27.6%, vs 7.67% in the prior 3-month window. Raw Materials Prices YoY is now the highest in 37 months.
Latest Release
33.4
Actual
37
Consensus
31.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.43 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 37.65
Actual: 33.4
Error: +4.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Bearish CAD | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Raw Materials Prices YoY (Canada) was reported at 33.4% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 37% by 3.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of 31.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 10.73%, ranging from 0.8% to 33.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 24.53%, up from the prior three at 6.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 11.22%) is higher than the prior year (σ 6.13%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Raw Materials Prices YoY has averaged 12.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/CAD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.43%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoC Interest Rate Decision (Jul 15) and BoC Monetary Policy Report (Jul 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Raw Materials Prices YoY - CA
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About Raw Materials Prices YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Raw Materials Prices YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of raw materials over a 12-month period. This indicator is used by investors and analysts to track the overall trend in the cost of raw materials, which can have a significant impact on the profitability and competitiveness of companies in various industries. A higher YoY increase in raw material prices may indicate inflationary pressures and potential cost increases for businesses, while a decrease may suggest deflationary conditions and potential cost savings. Overall, Raw Materials Prices YoY provides valuable insights into the health of the economy and the potential risks and opportunities for businesses.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 33.4 %, consensus 37 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 31.6 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 23.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 80.6 | 80.5 | 80.50 | Low | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 261.4 | 220 | 220.00 | Medium | |