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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Raw Materials Prices YoY fell to 20.7% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Canada Raw Materials Prices YoY fell to 20.7% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 12.7% from May's 33.4% reading. The reading missed the 26.3% consensus by 5.6%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 10.67%. Over the past 3 months, Raw Materials Prices YoY averaged 32.5%, vs 13.4% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 85th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
20.7
Actual
26.3
Consensus
33.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.78 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 26.05
Actual: 20.7
Error: +5.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Raw Materials Prices YoY (Canada) was reported at 20.7% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 26.3% by 5.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 33.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 12.69%, ranging from 0.8% to 33.4% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 28.57%, up from the prior three at 7.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 11.07%) is higher than the prior year (σ 5.93%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Raw Materials Prices YoY has averaged 9.77%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/CAD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.78%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Aug 4) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Raw Materials Prices YoY - CA
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About Raw Materials Prices YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Raw Materials Prices YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of raw materials over a 12-month period. This indicator is used by investors and analysts to track the overall trend in the cost of raw materials, which can have a significant impact on the profitability and competitiveness of companies in various industries. A higher YoY increase in raw material prices may indicate inflationary pressures and potential cost increases for businesses, while a decrease may suggest deflationary conditions and potential cost savings. Overall, Raw Materials Prices YoY provides valuable insights into the health of the economy and the potential risks and opportunities for businesses.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 20.7 %, consensus 26.3 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 33.4 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 31.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD, r=-0.67) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.4 | 3.67 | 3.7 | 3.55 | Low |