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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Raw Materials Prices YoY climbed to 31.6% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Canada Raw Materials Prices YoY climbed to 31.6% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 8.2% from March's 23.4% reading. The print exceeded the 29.0% consensus by 2.6%. Raw Materials Prices YoY has now risen for 6 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Raw Materials Prices YoY averaged 16.1%, vs 7.2% in the prior 3-month window. Raw Materials Prices YoY is now the highest in 37 months.
Latest Release
31.6
Actual
29
Consensus
23.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.43 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 29
Actual: 31.6
Error: -2.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | FOREX | Bearish CAD | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Raw Materials Prices YoY (Canada) was reported at 31.6% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 29% by 2.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of 23.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 7.11%, ranging from -2.8% to 31.6% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 16.07%, up from the prior three at 6.87%. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.92%) is higher than the prior year (σ 6.09%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Raw Materials Prices YoY has averaged 10.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/CAD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.43%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Raw Materials Prices YoY - CA
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About Raw Materials Prices YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Raw Materials Prices YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of raw materials over a 12-month period. This indicator is used by investors and analysts to track the overall trend in the cost of raw materials, which can have a significant impact on the profitability and competitiveness of companies in various industries. A higher YoY increase in raw material prices may indicate inflationary pressures and potential cost increases for businesses, while a decrease may suggest deflationary conditions and potential cost savings. Overall, Raw Materials Prices YoY provides valuable insights into the health of the economy and the potential risks and opportunities for businesses.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 31.6 %, consensus 29 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 23.6 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 8.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD, r=-0.70) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.