Canada's Raw Materials Prices YoY Rise 6.40% in November 2025: Cooling from October but Above Mid-Year Lows
Canada's Raw Materials Prices increased 6.40% year-over-year in November 2025, easing from October's 8.40% but remaining well above mid-year negative readings. The latest data from the Sigmanomics database highlights ongoing supply-side pressures amid shifting global demand and monetary tightening. This report dissects the latest figures, compares recent trends, and explores macroeconomic implications for Canada's economy and markets.
Table of Contents
Canada's Raw Materials Prices YoY for November 2025 rose 6.40%, down from October's 8.40% but up from November 2024's 3.20%, according to the Sigmanomics database. This marks a moderation after a sharp rebound in late 2025, following a volatile first half marked by negative and near-zero inflation readings. The 12-month average now stands near 4.70%, reflecting persistent but easing cost pressures on raw inputs.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices stabilized after mid-year declines, contributing 1.80 percentage points to the YoY increase.
- Metals and minerals prices rose moderately, adding 2.30 percentage points.
- Agricultural raw materials showed mixed trends, with some softening in crop prices.
Policy pulse
The Bank of Canada’s ongoing monetary tightening, with the policy rate at 5.25%, aims to temper inflation. Raw materials price inflation above 6% signals persistent cost pressures that may delay headline inflation easing. This reading remains above the central bank’s 2% target, suggesting limited room for policy relaxation in the near term.
Market lens
Following the release, the Canadian dollar (CADUSD) strengthened modestly by 0.30%, reflecting market recognition of sustained inflation pressures. Short-term bond yields rose 5 basis points, pricing in a higher likelihood of continued rate hikes. Commodity-linked equities such as ABX saw a slight uptick, while the broader TSX index remained flat.
Raw materials prices are a critical input for Canada’s inflation trajectory and economic growth. The 6.40% YoY increase in November 2025 contrasts with the negative readings of -3.60% in May and -2.80% in June, illustrating a sharp rebound in commodity costs over the past six months. Compared to the 5.80% reading in November 2024, the current figure signals a sustained inflationary environment for producers.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Bank of Canada’s restrictive stance, with a policy rate held at 5.25% since September, aims to cool demand and inflation. However, raw materials inflation remains sticky, partly due to external supply constraints and geopolitical risks. Financial conditions have tightened, with credit spreads widening slightly and the Canadian dollar gaining on safe-haven flows.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Canada’s fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with recent infrastructure spending supporting demand for raw materials. The government’s budget deficit narrowed slightly in Q3 2025 but remains elevated, sustaining upward pressure on domestic demand and commodity prices.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global supply chain disruptions, particularly in metals and energy, continue to influence Canadian raw materials prices. Heightened geopolitical tensions in key supplier regions have kept volatility elevated. These external shocks contribute to price stickiness despite slowing global growth.
This chart highlights a clear upward trend in raw materials prices since mid-2025, reversing the negative inflation seen earlier in the year. The recent plateau suggests supply-side constraints remain but demand pressures may be easing. Continued monitoring is essential to gauge inflation persistence and policy impact.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Canadian dollar (CADUSD) appreciated 0.30% in the hour after the print, reflecting market concern over persistent inflation. Short-term bond yields rose 5 basis points, pricing in a higher probability of further Bank of Canada tightening. Commodity stocks like TECK gained 0.50%, while the crypto market showed muted response.
Looking ahead, raw materials prices in Canada face a complex interplay of factors. The Bank of Canada's monetary policy stance, global supply chain dynamics, and fiscal stimulus will shape trajectories. We outline three scenarios:
Bullish Scenario (20% probability)
- Global demand rebounds strongly, pushing raw materials prices above 8% YoY by Q1 2026.
- Supply constraints persist, especially in energy and metals sectors.
- Bank of Canada maintains or raises rates further, supporting CAD strength.
Base Scenario (55% probability)
- Prices stabilize around 5-7% YoY through early 2026, reflecting balanced supply-demand.
- Monetary policy remains restrictive but data-dependent.
- Fiscal stimulus moderates, limiting demand-side inflation pressures.
Bearish Scenario (25% probability)
- Global slowdown reduces commodity demand, pushing prices below 3% YoY.
- Supply chain normalizes, easing cost pressures.
- Bank of Canada cuts rates in response to slowing inflation and growth.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Long-term, Canada’s raw materials sector faces structural shifts including decarbonization, technological innovation, and changing global trade patterns. These factors may dampen volatility but also introduce new supply risks. Monitoring these trends alongside cyclical data is crucial for investors and policymakers.
November 2025’s 6.40% YoY increase in Canada’s raw materials prices signals persistent inflationary pressures despite recent moderation. The data from the Sigmanomics database underscores the ongoing challenges posed by supply constraints and geopolitical risks. Monetary policy remains vigilant, with the Bank of Canada unlikely to ease until clearer signs of inflation abatement emerge. Market reactions reflect cautious optimism but highlight uncertainty ahead. Stakeholders should prepare for continued volatility and closely watch global developments and domestic policy responses.
Key Markets Likely to React to Raw Materials Prices YoY
Raw materials prices directly influence several key markets in Canada and globally. Commodity-linked equities, the Canadian dollar, and bond markets are particularly sensitive to these inflation signals. Below are five tradable symbols historically correlated with raw materials price movements, providing actionable insights for investors and traders.
- ABX – A major Canadian gold mining stock, sensitive to metals price fluctuations.
- TECK – A diversified mining company, closely tied to base metals and energy prices.
- CADUSD – The Canadian dollar vs. US dollar, often moves with commodity price trends.
- USDCAD – The inverse of CADUSD, useful for hedging currency exposure linked to commodities.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, occasionally reacts to inflation and risk sentiment shifts tied to commodity cycles.
Since 2020, ABX’s stock price has shown a strong positive correlation (r=0.68) with Canada’s raw materials prices YoY. Periods of rising commodity inflation, such as mid-2021 and late 2025, correspond with ABX rallies. This relationship underscores ABX’s role as a bellwether for commodity-driven inflation trends and investor sentiment in the Canadian resource sector.
FAQ
- What does the November 2025 Raw Materials Prices YoY figure indicate for Canada's inflation?
- The 6.40% YoY increase suggests persistent cost pressures on producers, likely keeping headline inflation elevated in the near term.
- How does this data affect Bank of Canada monetary policy?
- Sticky raw materials inflation supports the case for maintaining restrictive monetary policy until clearer disinflation is observed.
- Which markets are most sensitive to raw materials price changes?
- Commodity stocks like ABX and TECK, the Canadian dollar (CADUSD), and bond yields typically react strongly to these inflation signals.
Key takeaway: Canada’s raw materials prices remain elevated but show signs of plateauing, signaling ongoing inflation risks amid a complex global backdrop.
Updated 12/22/25
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
November 2025's 6.40% YoY rise in raw materials prices marks a decline from October's 8.40% but remains above the 12-month average of 4.70%. This suggests a cooling trend after a peak in late 2025, yet prices are still elevated compared to mid-year lows near -3.60% in May and -2.80% in June.
The month-over-month (MoM) increase from October to November was modest, indicating a plateauing of raw material cost pressures. The chart below illustrates the sharp rebound from mid-2025 lows and the recent stabilization.