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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM fell to 0.5% in June 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased August 2026
Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM fell to 0.5% in June 2026, released August 2026, down 0.7% from May's 1.2% reading. The print exceeded the 0.4% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.41%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM averaged 0.65%, vs 0.9% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 63rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.4
Consensus
1.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.79 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.2
Actual: 0.5
Error: -0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Canada) was reported at 0.5% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.4% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.32%, ranging from -1.2% to 1.4% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.6%, down from the prior three at 0.77%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.75%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.02%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM has averaged 0.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.79%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts (Sep 16) and New Housing Price Index MoM (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM - CA
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About Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM is a widely used financial indicator that measures the monthly change in retail sales, excluding the volatile automotive sector. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth. It is closely monitored by investors, economists, and policymakers as it reflects the strength of consumer demand and can impact the performance of the retail sector and the economy as a whole. A positive reading indicates an increase in retail sales, while a negative reading suggests a decline.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 1.2 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.65 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Median CPI YoY | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 80.7 | 82.2 | 82.4 | 81.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.32 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 190.2 | 190.1 | 190.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -0.6 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -0.47 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 229.1 | 237.5 | 240.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Building Permits MoM | 18.5 | -5.8 | -5.80 | Low | |