Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM: November 2025 Data and Macro Outlook
The latest Canadian Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM report for November 2025 shows a modest 0.20% increase, beating expectations of a 0.50% decline. This reading follows a 0.80% gain in October, signaling a slowdown but continued resilience in consumer spending outside the auto sector. Drawing on the Sigmanomics database, this report compares recent trends with historical data and explores implications for Canada’s macroeconomic landscape amid evolving monetary, fiscal, and geopolitical conditions.
Table of Contents
Canada’s retail sales ex autos rose 0.20% MoM in November 2025, marking a slowdown from October’s 0.80% increase but outperforming the -0.50% consensus. This figure aligns with a 12-month average growth rate of approximately 0.30%, reflecting ongoing consumer demand despite tighter financial conditions. The data suggests that while households remain cautious, discretionary spending outside autos is holding up amid inflation pressures and interest rate hikes.
Drivers this month
- Strong gains in food and beverage stores contributed roughly 0.12 percentage points.
- Clothing and general merchandise sectors added 0.05 percentage points.
- Electronics and appliance sales were flat, limiting upside.
Policy pulse
The 0.20% growth sits below the Bank of Canada’s inflation target range of 1-3%, signaling moderate consumer price pressures. The central bank’s recent rate hikes appear to be tempering demand without triggering a sharp contraction.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The CAD/USD currency pair strengthened 0.15% within the first hour post-release, reflecting relief that consumer spending remains positive. Canadian 2-year bond yields edged up 3 basis points, pricing in a steady monetary policy outlook.
Retail sales ex autos is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting consumer health and spending trends. November’s 0.20% MoM gain contrasts with the volatile readings earlier in 2025, including a peak of 2.70% in February and troughs of -1.20% in September and -0.70% in May. The persistence of positive retail sales outside autos suggests underlying economic resilience despite headwinds.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
Canada’s central bank has raised interest rates six times since late 2024, pushing the overnight rate to 4.50%. These hikes aim to curb inflation, which remains above target at 3.40% YoY as of October. The modest retail sales growth indicates that tighter financial conditions are slowing consumption but not collapsing it.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal stimulus has tapered in 2025, with government spending growth slowing to 1.20% YoY. The federal budget remains focused on deficit reduction, limiting direct support to households. This fiscal restraint likely contributes to the cautious consumer behavior seen in retail sales.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global supply chain disruptions have eased but remain a risk factor. Rising geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and Asia continue to inject uncertainty into commodity prices, impacting Canadian exports and indirectly influencing domestic consumer confidence.
What This Chart Tells Us
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Canadian equities, represented by the TSX, rose 0.30% following the report, reflecting optimism about steady consumer demand. The Canadian dollar’s modest appreciation against the USD underscores confidence in the domestic economy.
Looking ahead, retail sales ex autos face mixed prospects. The Bank of Canada’s monetary tightening is expected to continue, potentially slowing consumer credit growth. Inflation pressures may ease gradually, supporting real income stabilization. However, external risks and fiscal restraint could dampen spending.
Bullish scenario (25% probability)
- Inflation falls below 2.50% by Q2 2026, boosting real incomes.
- Retail sales accelerate to 0.50% MoM as consumer confidence rebounds.
- Monetary policy pauses or eases, supporting credit availability.
Base scenario (50% probability)
- Retail sales grow modestly at 0.20-0.30% MoM through mid-2026.
- Inflation remains near 3%, keeping rates steady.
- Fiscal policy remains neutral, with no major stimulus.
Bearish scenario (25% probability)
- Inflation surprises on the upside, forcing further rate hikes.
- Retail sales contract by 0.30-0.50% MoM amid credit tightening.
- Geopolitical shocks disrupt supply chains, reducing consumer confidence.
Canada’s November retail sales ex autos data confirms a cautious consumer environment. While growth slowed from October, the positive print defies expectations of contraction. This resilience amid monetary tightening and fiscal restraint bodes well for a soft landing scenario. However, risks from inflation volatility and external shocks warrant close monitoring.
Investors and policymakers should watch upcoming inflation reports and credit conditions for signals on consumer spending durability. The retail sales ex autos metric remains a vital barometer of Canada’s economic trajectory in 2025-26.
Key Markets Likely to React to Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM
Retail sales ex autos is a key gauge of consumer demand, influencing equities, currency, and bond markets. The following tradable symbols historically correlate with this indicator’s movements:
- TSX – Canada’s main equity index, sensitive to consumer sector performance.
- CADUSD – The Canadian dollar vs. US dollar, reflecting economic strength and monetary policy.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk sentiment barometer, reacts to macroeconomic shifts.
- RY – Royal Bank of Canada, a major lender impacted by consumer credit trends.
- EURCAD – Euro vs. Canadian dollar, sensitive to cross-border trade and risk sentiment.
Insight: Retail Sales Ex Autos vs. TSX Index Since 2020
Since 2020, retail sales ex autos and the TSX index have shown a positive correlation, with spikes in retail sales often preceding equity rallies. For example, the 2.70% surge in February 2025 coincided with a 4% monthly TSX gain. Conversely, the -1.20% dip in September 2025 aligned with a 3% TSX decline. This relationship underscores retail sales as a leading indicator for Canadian equities.
FAQ
- What is Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM?
- Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM measures monthly changes in Canadian retail sales excluding automobile purchases, indicating consumer spending trends.
- Why is this indicator important for Canada’s economy?
- It reflects household consumption strength, a major GDP component, and influences monetary policy decisions.
- How does Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM affect financial markets?
- Stronger readings typically boost the Canadian dollar and equities, while weaker data can pressure credit-sensitive sectors and bonds.
Takeaway: Canada’s retail sales ex autos growth in November 2025 signals a resilient consumer sector navigating monetary tightening and external risks, supporting a cautiously optimistic economic outlook.
TSX – Canada’s main equity index, sensitive to consumer sector performance.
CADUSD – The Canadian dollar vs. US dollar, reflecting economic strength and monetary policy.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk sentiment barometer, reacts to macroeconomic shifts.
RY – Royal Bank of Canada, a major lender impacted by consumer credit trends.
EURCAD – Euro vs. Canadian dollar, sensitive to cross-border trade and risk sentiment.
The November 2025 retail sales ex autos growth of 0.20% MoM is down from October’s 0.80% but above the 12-month average of 0.30%. This moderation follows a volatile year marked by sharp swings, including a 2.70% surge in February and a -1.20% drop in September.
Monthly data reveals a pattern of slowing momentum since mid-2025, with retail sales struggling to sustain double-digit monthly gains. The current print suggests a plateauing of consumer spending growth amid tighter credit conditions and inflationary pressures.