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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM climbed to 1.4% in March 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased May 2026
Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM climbed to 1.4% in March 2026, released May 2026, up 0.8% from February's 0.6% reading. The print exceeded the 0.9% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.14%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM averaged 0.65%, vs -0.25% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM is now the highest in 8 months.
Latest Release
1.4
Actual
0.9
Consensus
0.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.77 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.7
Actual: 1.4
Error: -0.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.75 | FOREX | Bearish CAD | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Canada) was reported at 1.4% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.9% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.28%, ranging from -1.2% to 1.9% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.77%, up from the prior three at 0.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.89%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.08%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM has averaged 0.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.78%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM - CA
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About Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM is a widely used financial indicator that measures the monthly change in retail sales, excluding the volatile automotive sector. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth. It is closely monitored by investors, economists, and policymakers as it reflects the strength of consumer demand and can impact the performance of the retail sector and the economy as a whole. A positive reading indicates an increase in retail sales, while a negative reading suggests a decline.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 1.4 %, consensus 0.9 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 0.5 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD, r=-0.75) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.