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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM fell to 0.1% in April 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased June 2026
Canada Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM fell to 0.1% in April 2026, released June 2026, down 1.3% from March's 1.4% reading. The reading missed the 0.7% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.22%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM averaged 0.95%, vs 0.45% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 41st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.1
Actual
0.7
Consensus
1.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.84 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.95
Actual: 0.1
Error: +0.85
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | FOREX | Bearish CAD | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM (Canada) was reported at 0.1% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.7% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.32%, ranging from -1.2% to 1.9% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.77%, up from the prior three at -0.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.87%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.99%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM has averaged 0.53%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.84%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoC Interest Rate Decision (Jul 15) and BoC Monetary Policy Report (Jul 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM - CA
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About Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM is a widely used financial indicator that measures the monthly change in retail sales, excluding the volatile automotive sector. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth. It is closely monitored by investors, economists, and policymakers as it reflects the strength of consumer demand and can impact the performance of the retail sector and the economy as a whole. A positive reading indicates an increase in retail sales, while a negative reading suggests a decline.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.7 %, consensus 0.7 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 1.4 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 80.6 | 80.5 | 80.50 | Low | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 261.4 | 220 | 220.00 | Medium | |