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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Retail Sales YoY fell to 3.4% in March 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased May 2026
Canada Retail Sales YoY fell to 3.4% in March 2026, released May 2026, down 0.4% from February's 3.8% reading. The print exceeded the 1.5% consensus by 1.9%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.87%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 2.65%, vs 1.0% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3.4
Actual
1.5
Consensus
3.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.75
Actual: 3.4
Error: -1.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Bearish CAD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Canada) was reported at 3.4% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.5% by 1.9%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.57%, ranging from 0% to 6.6% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.63%, down from the prior three at 3.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.86%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.72%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales YoY has averaged 3.63%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Retail Sales YoY - CA
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About Retail Sales YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 3.4 %, consensus 1.5 %. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 3.8 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 1.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD, r=-0.44) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.