Loading page content
Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Retail Sales YoY climbed to 5.4% in August 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada Retail Sales YoY climbed to 5.4% in August 2026, released October 2026, up 0.3% from July's 5.1% reading. The print exceeded the 4.9% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.57%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales YoY averaged 5.15%, vs 4.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 85th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.4
Actual
4.9
Consensus
5.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.58 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 5.73
Actual: 5.4
Error: +0.33
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales YoY (Canada) was reported at 5.4% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.9% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 5.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.56%, ranging from 0% to 5.9% across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.23%, up from the prior three at 4.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.83%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.7%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales YoY has averaged 3.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P/TSX Composite (Bearish S&P). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.58%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Retail Sales YoY - CA
Loading chart data...
About Retail Sales YoY — Canada
DEFINITION
Retail Sales YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retailers compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides insight into the strength of consumer spending and overall economic growth, making it a key metric for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive YoY growth indicates an increase in consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a decline in consumer confidence and potential economic slowdown.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 5.4 %, consensus 4.9 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 5.1 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 5.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P/TSX Composite (Bearish S&P, r=-0.69) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low |