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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Unemployment Rate climbed to 6.5% in September 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada Unemployment Rate climbed to 6.5% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.1% from August's 6.4% reading. The reading matched expectations. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.6%. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Rate averaged 6.4%, vs 6.67% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 20th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
6.5
Actual
6.5
Consensus
6.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.11 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 6.48
Actual: 6.5
Error: -0.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.74 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (Canada) was reported at 6.5% in October 2026. This matched the market consensus of 6.5% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 6.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.54%, ranging from 6.4% to 6.8% across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.43%, down from the prior three at 6.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.13%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.19%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 6.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.11%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Gross Domestic Product MoM (Oct 30) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - CA
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About Unemployment Rate — Canada
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 6.5 %, consensus 6.5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 6.4 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 6.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD, r=-0.74) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low |