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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Unemployment Rate fell to 6.6% in May 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased June 2026
Canada Unemployment Rate fell to 6.6% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.3% from April's 6.9% reading. The reading matched expectations. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.4%. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Rate averaged 6.77%, vs 6.65% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 35th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
6.6
Actual
6.9
Consensus
6.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 6.95
Actual: 6.6
Error: +0.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.72 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | FOREX | Bearish CAD | → View |
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | INDEX | Bullish S&P | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (Canada) was reported at 6.6% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 6.9% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 6.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.79%, ranging from 6.5% to 7.1% across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6.6%, down from the prior three at 6.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.22%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.18%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 6.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish CAD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 10, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - CA
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About Unemployment Rate — Canada
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 6.6 %, consensus 6.9 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 6.9 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 6.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.72) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.