The latest Wholesale Sales MoM data for Canada, released on November 25, 2025, showed a decline of 0.10%, contrasting with the 0.30% forecast and October’s 0.60% increase. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, covers the entire Canadian wholesale sector and reflects activity for the month of November 2025. The reading marks a notable shift from the steady growth trend observed over the past year, where the average monthly gain stood at approximately 0.25%.

Drivers this month

• Inventory adjustments in the automotive and machinery sectors reduced wholesale orders by 0.04 percentage points.
• Energy-related wholesale sales declined amid softer commodity prices, subtracting 0.03 percentage points.
• Food and beverage wholesale remained stable, contributing a neutral 0.00 percentage points.
• Building materials saw a slight uptick, adding 0.02 percentage points.

Policy pulse

The November reading comes amid ongoing Bank of Canada rate hikes, with the policy rate at 5.25%, aimed at curbing inflation near the 2% target. Wholesale sales contraction suggests that tighter monetary conditions are beginning to dampen demand in supply chains, consistent with the central bank’s intent to slow economic activity.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Canadian dollar (CADUSD) weakened by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting investor concerns over slowing domestic demand. Meanwhile, 2-year government bond yields fell 5 basis points, signaling a modest easing of rate hike expectations.

Wholesale sales are a critical barometer of economic health, linking producer output to retail demand. The November 2025 decline contrasts with the prior three months of positive growth, including a 0.60% rise in October and a 0.40% increase in September. Year-over-year, wholesale sales have grown 3.10%, down from a 4.50% pace six months ago, indicating a deceleration in underlying momentum.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

Bank of Canada’s aggressive tightening cycle since mid-2024 has increased borrowing costs, with the overnight rate rising from 3.50% to 5.25%. Higher interest rates have pressured business investment and inventory financing, contributing to the recent wholesale sales softness. Credit spreads have widened slightly, reflecting cautious lender sentiment.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Federal fiscal policy remains moderately contractionary, with efforts to reduce deficits through restrained spending growth. Infrastructure investments continue but at a slower pace, limiting stimulus to wholesale demand. Provincial budget tightening in key regions such as Ontario and Alberta further constrains local wholesale activity.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Global supply chain disruptions persist due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and Asia-Pacific trade frictions. These factors have increased input costs and delivery delays, negatively impacting wholesale inventories and sales. Commodity price volatility, especially in oil and metals, adds uncertainty to wholesale trade volumes.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The CADUSD currency pair dropped 0.30% post-release, reflecting investor caution. The 2-year Canada government bond yield declined by 5 basis points, indicating a slight easing in rate hike expectations. Equity markets showed mild weakness in industrial and materials sectors.

Looking ahead, the Wholesale Sales MoM trajectory will be shaped by several key factors. The Bank of Canada’s monetary policy stance remains restrictive, with further rate hikes possible if inflation proves persistent. Fiscal policy is unlikely to provide significant stimulus in the near term. External risks from geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions continue to cloud the outlook.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Inflation eases faster than expected, allowing the Bank of Canada to pause rate hikes.
• Supply chain normalizes, boosting wholesale inventories and sales.
• Fiscal stimulus accelerates infrastructure spending in early 2026.
• Wholesale sales rebound with MoM growth returning to 0.40% or higher.

Base scenario (55% probability)

• Monetary policy remains tight but stable, with inflation near target.
• Supply chain frictions persist but gradually improve.
• Wholesale sales hover near flat to modest growth (0.00% to 0.20% MoM).
• Gradual recovery in wholesale activity by mid-2026.

Bearish scenario (25% probability)

• Inflation surprises on the upside, prompting further rate hikes.
• Geopolitical shocks worsen supply chain disruptions.
• Fiscal austerity deepens, reducing demand further.
• Wholesale sales decline accelerates, with MoM drops exceeding -0.30%.

The November 2025 Wholesale Sales MoM contraction signals a potential turning point for Canada’s supply chain activity. While the 12-month average remains positive, the recent dip highlights risks from tighter monetary policy, fiscal restraint, and external shocks. Market reactions underscore investor caution, with the Canadian dollar and bond yields adjusting to the softer data. Monitoring upcoming wholesale sales and related indicators will be critical to gauge the depth and duration of this slowdown.

Strategic investors should weigh the balance of risks carefully, considering both the potential for a rebound if inflation eases and the possibility of further weakness amid geopolitical uncertainties. The wholesale sector’s health remains a bellwether for broader economic trends in Canada.

Data source and methodology: All figures and historical comparisons are derived from the Sigmanomics database, which aggregates official Statistics Canada releases and applies seasonal adjustments and cross-sectoral weighting to produce consistent monthly wholesale sales metrics.

Selected tradable symbols relevant to this report:

• SHOP – E-commerce and wholesale platform, sensitive to wholesale sales trends.
• CADUSD – Canadian dollar exchange rate, reacts to wholesale sales data and monetary policy.
• MTL – Materials sector stock, linked to wholesale demand for raw materials.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk sentiment barometer impacting commodity-linked currencies.
• USDCAD – Inverse of CADUSD, important for cross-border trade and wholesale pricing.