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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChileChile Balance of Trade climbed to 3,320M in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Chile Balance of Trade climbed to 3,320M in June 2026, released July 2026, up 880M from May's 2,440M reading. The print exceeded the 2,900M consensus by 420M. Balance of Trade has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 2,176M, vs 2,416.02M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 85th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
3320
Actual
2900
Consensus
2440
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±323.08 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3,410
Actual: 3,320
Error: +90
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Chile) was reported at 3,320.00 million in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2,900.00 million by 420.00 million. The reading rose from the previous value of 2,440.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2,181.22 million, ranging from -60.00 million to 3,810.00 million across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2,850.00 million, down from the prior three at 3,099.33 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 1,275.81 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 589.14 million). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 2,213.33 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 323.08 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - CL
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About Balance of Trade — Chile
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 3,320 M, consensus 2,900 M. Prior reading (May 2026): 2,440 M. Before that (Apr 2026): 1,912 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.67) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CL Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | CL | Retail Sales YoY | 5.1 | 5 | 4.4 | 4.75 | Low |
| 13:00 | CL | Industrial Production YoY | 1.3 | -7.5 | -6 | -2.35 | Low |
| 13:00 | CL | Unemployment Rate | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 9.40 | Low |
| 13:00 | CL | Retail Sales MoM | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.10 | Low |
| 13:00 | CL | Copper Production YoY | 5.1 | -12.9 | -10 | -2.45 | Low |
| 13:00 | CL | Manufacturing Production YoY | -3.2 | -7.2 | -6 | -4.60 | Low |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CL | IMACEC Economic Activity YoY | -0.9 | 0.4 | -0.80 | Low | |