Chile’s Balance of Trade Slumps to CLP 2.79M in February: Weakest Print in Three Months
Chile’s balance of trade posted a significant month-over-month decline in February 2026, as the country’s export momentum faded and imports remained resilient. The latest figures highlight shifting trade patterns and raise questions about the durability of Chile’s external sector strength.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Export contraction: -CLP 1.02M MoM
- Steady imports: minimal change from January
- Commodity prices: copper exports down
Policy pulse
February’s surplus of CLP 2.79M sits well below the central bank’s recent trend, with the 12-month average at CLP 1.86M. The reading diverges from the CLP 3.9M consensus estimate, underscoring downside risks to external balances.
Market lens
CLP weakened modestly on the release, reflecting market disappointment. The sharp drop in the trade surplus triggered a brief selloff in local assets, as investors reassessed Chile’s export outlook and currency resilience.Foundational Indicators
Drivers this month
- February: CLP 2.79M
- January: CLP 3.81M
- December: CLP 1.9M
- October: CLP 0.93M
- September: CLP 0.91M
- August: -CLP 0.06M
Policy pulse
Chile’s central bank has not signaled a formal target for the trade balance, but the recent print is the lowest since December. The surplus remains positive, yet the pace of contraction is notable.
Market lens
Bond yields edged higher as investors weighed the narrowing surplus. The data reinforced concerns about Chile’s export competitiveness and the impact of softer global demand.Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (20–30%): Export recovery on higher copper prices and resilient Asian demand could push the surplus back above CLP 3.5M in coming months.
- Base case (50–60%): Trade balance stabilizes near CLP 2.8M as exports and imports move in tandem, with modest volatility.
- Bearish (15–25%): Further export softness or rising imports could erode the surplus, risking a return to sub-CLP 2M levels.
Data source and methodology
All figures are sourced from the Sigmanomics database, cross-verified with official Chilean central bank releases. Data reflect monthly customs-reported trade flows, denominated in millions of Chilean pesos (CLP).
Market lens
Equity and currency markets remain sensitive to trade data surprises. The February print has recalibrated expectations for Chile’s external position, with investors watching for signs of export stabilization or further weakness.Closing Thoughts
Risks and opportunities
- Upside: Stronger commodity prices, improved global demand
- Downside: Prolonged export contraction, rising import costs
- Watch: Policy response, currency volatility
Market lens
February’s sharp surplus drop has put Chile’s trade resilience under the microscope. The coming months will test whether the external sector can regain momentum or faces further headwinds.Key Markets Reacting to Balance of Trade
Chile’s trade data ripple across global markets, with equities, currencies, and commodities all responding to shifts in the country’s external position. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics, have shown notable sensitivity to Chile’s trade balance swings:
- AAPL (US equities): Indirect exposure via supply chain and emerging market sentiment.
- EURUSD (Forex): Moves in CLP often correlate with risk appetite in major currency pairs.
- BTCUSD (Crypto): Crypto markets react to EM currency volatility and macro data surprises.
| Year | CL Balance of Trade (M CLP) | BTCUSD Direction |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1.2 | Up |
| 2021 | 1.7 | Up |
| 2022 | 1.5 | Down |
| 2023 | 1.9 | Up |
| 2024 | 1.6 | Down |
| 2025 | 1.3 | Up |
| 2026 YTD | 3.8 (Jan), 2.8 (Feb) | Mixed |
BTCUSD has generally trended higher during periods of Chilean trade surplus growth, but the relationship is not linear and is influenced by broader risk sentiment.
FAQ
- What is Chile’s latest balance of trade figure?
- Chile’s balance of trade for February 2026 was CLP 2.79M, down from CLP 3.81M in January.
- How does the February reading compare to recent months?
- The February surplus is the lowest since December and marks a sharp month-over-month decline.
- Why does the balance of trade matter for Chile?
- The balance of trade reflects the country’s export-import dynamics and is a key indicator of external sector health.
Chile’s trade surplus has narrowed, putting the country’s export resilience in focus as global conditions shift.
Updated 3/9/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Economic Database, Chile Balance of Trade, accessed 3/9/26.
- Banco Central de Chile, official trade statistics, accessed 3/9/26.









February’s trade surplus of CLP 2.79M marks a steep drop from January’s CLP 3.81M and sits below the 12-month average of CLP 1.86M. The last time the surplus was this low was in December, when it registered CLP 1.9M. Over the past six months, the balance has swung from a deficit in August (-CLP 0.06M) to a peak in January before this latest pullback.
Compared to September’s CLP 0.91M and October’s CLP 0.93M, the current reading remains above the late-2025 lows but signals a reversal from the recent uptrend. The year-over-year comparison shows a modest improvement from the deficit recorded in August 2025.