Chile’s Core Inflation Rate MoM Slows Sharply in February
Chile’s core inflation rate increased just 0.10% in February 2026, a marked deceleration from January’s 0.70% and well below the 0.50% market estimate. The latest data, released March 6, 2026, points to moderating underlying price pressures as the central bank weighs its next steps.[1]
Big-Picture Snapshot
- February’s core inflation rate: 0.10% MoM
- January: 0.70% MoM
- 12-month average: 0.23% MoM
- Lowest reading since January 2026 (-0.10%)
- Consensus estimate: 0.50%
Drivers this month
- Food and non-alcoholic beverages: +0.04pp
- Transport: +0.03pp
- Clothing and footwear: +0.02pp
- Housing and utilities: flat
Policy pulse
The 0.10% print sits well below the Banco Central de Chile’s 3% annual inflation target, reinforcing the recent trend of subdued core price growth.
Market lens
CLP strengthened modestly on the release. The muted inflation print prompted a dip in local bond yields, as investors recalibrated expectations for further monetary easing.
Foundational Indicators
- Core inflation rate (Feb): 0.10% MoM
- Previous month (Jan): 0.70% MoM
- December 2025: 0.40% MoM
- October 2025: 0.40% MoM
- September 2025: -0.20% MoM
- August 2025: 0.70% MoM
- July 2025: -0.30% MoM
Drivers this month
- Modest gains in food and transport offset by flat housing costs
- Clothing and footwear contributed marginally
Policy pulse
With core inflation running below the central bank’s annualized target, policymakers face less pressure to tighten policy in the near term.
Market lens
Chilean equities traded sideways post-release. Investors weighed the softer inflation data against global risk sentiment and local growth signals.
Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: The chart underscores a pronounced deceleration in Chile’s core inflation momentum. After a volatile second half of 2025, the latest readings point to a cooling trend, with February’s figure well below both recent highs and the rolling average. This directional shift may influence monetary policy discussions in the months ahead.
Forward Outlook
- Bullish scenario (20–30%): Core inflation remains below 0.20% MoM for the next quarter, supporting further monetary easing and CLP stability.
- Base scenario (50–60%): Core inflation fluctuates between 0.10% and 0.30% MoM, reflecting contained price pressures and steady policy rates.
- Bearish scenario (10–20%): A rebound above 0.40% MoM reignites inflation concerns, pressuring yields and dampening risk appetite.
Data source: Sigmanomics, official Chilean statistics. Methodology: Seasonally adjusted, excludes volatile food and energy components.
Drivers this month
- Stable housing and utilities costs
- Limited pass-through from global commodity prices
- Muted domestic demand
Policy pulse
With core inflation trending below target, the central bank’s policy stance remains accommodative, though officials continue to monitor for upside risks.
Market lens
Local bond markets priced in a lower inflation risk premium. The subdued reading reinforced expectations for a gradual policy path, with little immediate impact on risk assets.
Closing Thoughts
Chile’s February core inflation print signals a decisive slowdown in underlying price pressures, with the 0.10% MoM figure undershooting both consensus and recent averages. The data supports a steady policy outlook, though vigilance remains warranted as global and domestic dynamics evolve.
Drivers this month
- Food and transport led minor gains
- Housing and utilities provided stability
- Clothing and footwear had a small positive impact
Policy pulse
The central bank’s inflation target remains distant, giving policymakers room to maintain an accommodative stance if needed.
Market lens
Currency and rates markets responded calmly. The inflation surprise was absorbed without significant volatility, reflecting confidence in the current macro backdrop.
Key Markets Reacting to Core Inflation Rate MoM
Chile’s core inflation data can influence a range of asset classes, from equities to currencies and digital assets. The February reading’s downside surprise prompted measured reactions across markets, with local bonds and the Chilean peso most directly affected. Below are key tradable symbols with notable sensitivity to Chilean inflation trends.
- AAPL (Equities): Global tech stocks like AAPL often respond to emerging market inflation trends via risk sentiment and capital flows.
- EURUSD (Forex): The EURUSD pair can reflect shifts in global inflation expectations, including those from Latin America.
- BTCUSD (Crypto): Bitcoin’s price action sometimes correlates with inflation surprises in emerging markets as investors seek alternative stores of value.
| Month | Core Inflation MoM (%) | BTCUSD Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2025 | -0.30 | Flat |
| Aug 2025 | 0.70 | Up |
| Sep 2025 | -0.20 | Down |
| Oct 2025 | 0.40 | Up |
| Dec 2025 | 0.40 | Flat |
| Jan 2026 | -0.10 | Down |
| Feb 2026 | 0.10 | Flat |
Since 2020, BTCUSD has shown intermittent correlation with Chile’s core inflation surprises, with price direction often mirroring shifts in inflation momentum.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the latest Core Inflation Rate MoM for Chile?
- Chile’s core inflation rate for February 2026 was 0.10% month-over-month, marking a sharp slowdown from January’s 0.70%.
- How does the February reading compare to historical averages?
- The 0.10% print is well below the 12-month average of 0.23% and is the lowest positive monthly figure since October 2025.
- What does the latest data mean for Chile’s monetary policy?
- The subdued core inflation rate gives the central bank more flexibility to maintain an accommodative policy stance, as price pressures remain contained.
Chile’s core inflation rate cooled sharply in February, reinforcing a trend of easing price pressures and supporting a steady policy outlook.
Updated 3/6/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Economic Database, Core Inflation Rate MoM, Chile, accessed March 6, 2026.
February’s 0.10% core inflation rate marks a sharp slowdown from January’s 0.70% and sits below the 12-month average of 0.23%. The last time core inflation was this subdued was in January 2026, when the rate dipped to -0.10%. Over the past six months, volatility has been evident: August and January both saw 0.70% prints, while July and September registered negative readings.
Compared to the same period last year, the current trend reflects a clear moderation in underlying price pressures. The 0.10% figure is the lowest positive monthly print since October 2025, when core inflation was 0.40%.