Chile Economic Activity YoY: February 2026 Data Shows First Contraction in Over Three Years
Big-Picture Snapshot
- February 2026 YoY: -0.1%
- January 2026 YoY: 1.7%
- 12-month average: 2.1%
- Highest in last 10 months: 3.8% (May 2025)
- Lowest since October 2022
Drivers This Month
- Services: -0.12pp
- Mining: -0.09pp
- Retail: +0.05pp
Policy Pulse
The February reading fell below the central bank’s 2.5% medium-term growth target, raising questions about the strength of Chile’s post-pandemic recovery.
Market Lens
CLP was steady after the release. Investors had largely priced in a softer print, but the negative surprise has increased caution around cyclical stocks and local bonds.Foundational Indicators
- February 2026: -0.1% YoY
- January 2026: 1.7% YoY
- December 2025: 2.2% YoY
- November 2025: 3.2% YoY
- October 2025: 0.5% YoY
- September 2025: 1.8% YoY
Drivers This Month
- Industrial output: flat
- Construction: -0.04pp
- Exports: +0.03pp
Policy Pulse
With activity now below trend, policymakers face pressure to reassess the current monetary stance. The central bank’s last statement cited “persistent external headwinds.”
Market Lens
Equities saw limited movement. The muted response reflects both the surprise contraction and expectations for policy support if weakness persists.Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: The sharp reversal in February underscores mounting downside risks. Momentum has faded, with the latest contraction breaking a year-long streak of positive growth. The trend now points to a more cautious outlook for Chile’s near-term expansion.
Drivers This Month
- Services and mining led the decline
- Retail offered modest support
Policy Pulse
The negative print increases the likelihood of a more accommodative policy stance if weakness persists, though no immediate moves are signaled.
Market Lens
Bond yields edged lower. The market is weighing the risk of further economic softness against the prospect of policy easing.Forward Outlook
- Bullish scenario (20–30%): Activity rebounds to 1.5–2.0% YoY by April, driven by services and external demand.
- Base case (50–60%): Growth stabilizes near zero, with modest improvement in Q2 as mining recovers.
- Bearish scenario (15–25%): Further contraction to -0.5% YoY or worse if global headwinds intensify.
Upside risks include a rebound in copper prices and fiscal stimulus. Downside risks stem from weaker China demand and domestic policy uncertainty.
Drivers This Month
- Mining and services remain key swing factors
- External demand trends critical for Q2
Policy Pulse
Authorities are monitoring inflation and employment closely. No change to the policy rate is signaled, but guidance may shift if contraction persists.
Market Lens
FX volatility remains contained. Investors are watching for signs of stabilization before re-risking in local assets.Closing Thoughts
Chile’s February economic activity data marks a pivotal moment, ending a run of positive YoY prints. The contraction, though modest, highlights the fragility of the recovery and the need for vigilance from policymakers and investors alike.
Drivers This Month
- Services and mining weakness
- Muted retail support
Policy Pulse
With growth below target, the central bank’s next moves will be closely watched. Communication will be key to anchoring expectations.
Market Lens
Risk appetite has cooled. Market participants are recalibrating exposure amid rising uncertainty and shifting growth dynamics.Key Markets Reacting to Economic Activity YoY
Chile’s economic activity data influences a range of global markets, from equities to currencies and commodities. The February contraction has prompted investors to reassess risk, particularly in assets sensitive to Chile’s growth and export profile. Below are verified tradable symbols from Sigmanomics, each with a distinct correlation to the indicator.
- AAPL (US equities): Indirect exposure via global supply chains and emerging market demand.
- EURUSD (Forex): Sensitive to shifts in risk sentiment and commodity-linked currencies.
- BTCUSD (Crypto): Often trades as a risk asset, with flows impacted by EM growth signals.
| Month | Economic Activity YoY (%) | AAPL (direction) |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 3.8 | Up |
| Oct 2025 | 0.5 | Flat |
| Feb 2026 | -0.1 | Down |
Since 2020, AAPL has shown a positive correlation with Chile’s economic activity during periods of global growth, but decouples when local shocks dominate.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What does Chile’s February 2026 Economic Activity YoY contraction mean?
- It marks the first negative annual print since October 2022, signaling a pause in Chile’s recovery and raising concerns about underlying growth momentum.
- How does the -0.1% YoY figure compare to recent months?
- February’s result reversed January’s 1.7% gain and is well below the 12-month average of 2.1%, highlighting increased volatility and downside risks.
- What is the focus keyword for this report?
- Economic Activity YoY, CL
Chile’s February contraction underscores the fragility of its recovery and the need for close monitoring of growth drivers.
Updated 3/2/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] Sigmanomics Economic Activity YoY Database, Chile, accessed 3/2/26.
- [2] Central Bank of Chile, Monetary Policy Report, February 2026.
- [3] Sigmanomics Market Listings, accessed 3/2/26.
February’s -0.1% YoY print reversed January’s 1.7% gain and fell well below the 12-month average of 2.1%. The last negative reading was in October 2022. Over the past six months, growth has decelerated from November’s 3.2% to the current contraction.
Volatility has increased: swings from 3.8% in May 2025 to 0.5% in October 2025 highlight a fragile recovery. The latest data signals a break in the upward trend seen through late 2025.