Chile’s IMACEC Economic Activity YoY: December 2025 Release and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: Chile’s IMACEC Economic Activity YoY growth slowed to 2.20% in December 2025, below expectations but above October’s 0.50%. This marks a moderation from November’s 3.20% surge, reflecting mixed signals amid evolving domestic and external conditions. Monetary policy remains cautious as inflation pressures persist. External risks from commodity markets and geopolitical tensions weigh on sentiment. Fiscal discipline and structural reforms will be crucial to sustain growth momentum into 2026.
Table of Contents
The latest IMACEC Economic Activity YoY figure for Chile, released on December 1, 2025, registered a 2.20% increase. This reading came in below the consensus estimate of 1.40% but represents a rebound from October’s 0.50% growth. Compared to November’s 3.20%, the December figure signals a moderation in economic momentum as the year closes.
Geographic & Temporal Scope
Chile’s IMACEC index captures broad economic activity nationwide, reflecting output across mining, manufacturing, services, and commerce. The YoY metric smooths seasonal volatility, providing a clearer view of growth trends. The December 2025 release covers data through November, offering a near-real-time snapshot of the economy’s health amid shifting global and domestic conditions.
Core Macroeconomic Indicators
Alongside IMACEC, inflation remains a key concern, with the annual CPI hovering near 4.50%, above the Central Bank’s 3% target. Unemployment rates have stabilized around 7.80%, while retail sales and industrial production data show mixed signals. The trade balance remains positive but vulnerable to copper price fluctuations, Chile’s main export commodity.
Chile’s economic growth has decelerated from the 3.80% peak in May 2025 to a more moderate 2.20% in December, reflecting both cyclical and structural factors. The 12-month average growth rate stands near 2.60%, indicating a slowdown from the 2024 expansion phase.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The Central Bank of Chile has maintained a cautious stance, keeping the policy rate steady at 7.50% since September 2025. Inflationary pressures and a resilient labor market justify this pause. Financial conditions remain moderately tight, with the Chilean peso (CLP) trading near 820 per USD, pressured by global dollar strength and commodity price volatility.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains prudent, with the government targeting a deficit of 1.80% of GDP in 2025. Public investment in infrastructure and social programs continues, but spending growth is constrained by debt sustainability concerns. The budget framework aims to balance stimulus needs with long-term fiscal health.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Chile’s economy is exposed to external shocks, notably copper price swings and global demand shifts. Recent geopolitical tensions in Asia and trade uncertainties have dampened export prospects. Additionally, climate-related disruptions pose risks to mining and agriculture sectors.
Drivers this month
- Mining output growth slowed, contributing 0.50 pp to IMACEC growth, down from 1.00 pp in November.
- Services sector remained resilient, adding 1.00 pp, supported by domestic consumption.
- Manufacturing contracted slightly, subtracting -0.30 pp amid supply chain disruptions.
- Retail sales growth moderated, contributing 0.40 pp, reflecting cautious consumer sentiment.
Policy pulse
The 2.20% growth sits below the Central Bank’s neutral growth estimate of 2.50%, reinforcing a wait-and-see approach. Inflation remains sticky, and the bank signals readiness to adjust rates if inflation expectations deviate further from target.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Chilean peso weakened 0.30% against the USD in the first hour post-release, reflecting disappointment versus expectations. Local equity markets, represented by the IPSAA.CL, dipped 0.50%, while bond yields edged up slightly.
This chart reveals a trend of moderation after a brief rebound in November. The IMACEC’s volatility underscores Chile’s sensitivity to external shocks and domestic policy shifts. The current trajectory suggests cautious optimism but highlights the need for supportive macro policies to sustain growth.
Looking ahead, Chile’s economic growth faces a complex mix of opportunities and risks. The baseline forecast projects 2.00–2.50% YoY growth in early 2026, supported by stable commodity prices and gradual normalization of supply chains.
Bullish Scenario (20% probability)
- Stronger-than-expected global demand boosts copper prices above $4.00/lb.
- Domestic consumption rebounds due to improved labor market conditions.
- Fiscal stimulus accelerates infrastructure investment, lifting growth above 3.00%.
Base Scenario (60% probability)
- Moderate growth of 2.00–2.50% sustained by balanced external demand.
- Monetary policy remains on hold, managing inflation without stifling growth.
- Fiscal discipline maintained, supporting confidence and investment.
Bearish Scenario (20% probability)
- Commodity price shocks reduce export revenues, dragging growth below 1.50%.
- Geopolitical tensions disrupt trade flows and investor sentiment.
- Inflation spikes force aggressive monetary tightening, slowing domestic demand.
Chile’s December 2025 IMACEC reading of 2.20% reflects a tempered but resilient economy navigating global uncertainties and domestic challenges. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act between containing inflation and fostering growth. Structural reforms and fiscal prudence will be key to unlocking sustainable expansion. Market participants should monitor commodity trends, monetary signals, and geopolitical developments closely in the coming months.
Key Markets Likely to React to IMACEC Economic Activity YoY
The IMACEC indicator is closely watched by investors in Chilean equities, currency, and bonds. Key symbols historically sensitive to IMACEC shifts include the IPSAA.CL (Chile’s main stock index), the USDCLP currency pair, the copper-linked ETF FCX, the Chilean sovereign bond futures CLBOND, and the cryptocurrency BTCUSD, which often reflects risk sentiment shifts impacting emerging markets.
IMACEC vs. IPSAA.CL Since 2020
Since 2020, the IMACEC YoY growth and the IPSAA.CL index have shown a strong positive correlation (~0.75). Periods of IMACEC acceleration typically coincide with equity rallies, while slowdowns precede market corrections. The recent deceleration in IMACEC growth has coincided with a modest pullback in IPSAA.CL, underscoring the index’s sensitivity to economic momentum.
FAQ
- What is the IMACEC Economic Activity YoY for Chile?
- The IMACEC Economic Activity YoY measures Chile’s overall economic growth compared to the same month in the previous year, reflecting broad sectoral output changes.
- How does the IMACEC impact Chile’s monetary policy?
- IMACEC trends inform the Central Bank’s decisions on interest rates by indicating economic momentum and inflationary pressures.
- Why is the IMACEC important for investors?
- Investors use IMACEC data to gauge Chile’s economic health, influencing asset prices in equities, bonds, currency, and commodities.
Final takeaway: Chile’s IMACEC YoY growth slowdown to 2.20% signals a cautious economic environment. Balanced policy and external stability will be critical to sustaining growth in 2026.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 12/1/25
The December 2025 IMACEC YoY growth of 2.20% contrasts with the previous month’s 3.20% and the 12-month average of 2.60%. This marks a clear deceleration from November’s spike but remains above October’s 0.50%, suggesting a volatile but generally moderate growth trajectory.
Historical comparisons show that the current pace is slower than the 3.10% average seen in August 2025 and well below the 3.80% peak in May 2025. The recent volatility reflects shifting demand patterns and supply-side constraints, including labor shortages and energy costs.