Chile’s IMACEC Economic Activity Turns Negative in February
Big-Picture Snapshot
- IMACEC YoY (Feb 2026): -0.1%
- Consensus estimate: 2.1%
- January 2026: 1.7%
- 12-month average: 1.8%
- Lowest reading since October 2022
- CLP under mild pressure post-release
Drivers This Month
- Mining output: -0.22pp
- Trade and services: -0.09pp
- Manufacturing: -0.04pp
Policy Pulse
The -0.1% YoY print stands well below the Central Bank of Chile’s implicit growth target range of 2–3% for 2026.
Market Lens
CLP weakened modestly against the USD after the data release. The negative surprise has prompted a reassessment of Chile’s near-term growth prospects, with local equities and sovereign bonds seeing muted but negative initial moves.
Foundational Indicators
- August 2025: 3.1%
- September 2025: 1.8%
- October 2025: 0.5%
- November 2025: 3.2%
- December 2025: 2.2%
- January 2026: 1.7%
Drivers This Month
- Mining sector contraction: -0.22pp
- Services and trade: -0.09pp
- Manufacturing: -0.04pp
Policy Pulse
Chile’s central bank has signaled a data-dependent stance, with the IMACEC drop raising questions about the durability of the recovery seen in late 2025.
Market Lens
Local fixed income yields edged lower as investors priced in weaker growth. The negative IMACEC print has increased market focus on upcoming monetary policy communications.
Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: The IMACEC’s reversal into negative territory signals a broad-based slowdown, with mining and services both detracting from growth. The sharp drop from late 2025’s highs highlights Chile’s vulnerability to external demand shocks and domestic policy uncertainty.
Forward Outlook
- Bullish scenario (15–25%): Mining rebounds, services stabilize, IMACEC returns to 1.5–2.0% YoY by mid-2026.
- Base case (55–65%): Growth remains subdued, IMACEC fluctuates between -0.2% and 1.0% through Q2 2026.
- Bearish scenario (10–20%): Prolonged contraction in mining and services, IMACEC stays negative for several months.
Upside risks include a recovery in copper prices and improved external demand. Downside risks stem from persistent sectoral weakness and tighter global financial conditions. Data source: Banco Central de Chile, Sigmanomics database. IMACEC methodology covers 90% of GDP, seasonally adjusted for sectoral volatility.
Closing Thoughts
The February IMACEC print marks a pivotal moment for Chile’s economic narrative. The negative reading, following a period of moderate expansion, puts the spotlight on policy responses and the resilience of key sectors. Market participants will closely monitor upcoming data for signs of stabilization or further weakness.
Key Markets Reacting to IMACEC Economic Activity YoY
Chile’s IMACEC data has immediate implications for both local and global markets. The CLP, Chilean equities, and sovereign bonds all respond to shifts in economic momentum, while global investors watch for spillovers into commodity and currency markets. Below are key symbols directly impacted by the IMACEC release:
- AAPL – Indirect exposure via global supply chains and copper demand sensitivity.
- EURUSD – Tracks risk sentiment and commodity-linked currency flows.
- BTCUSD – Reacts to emerging market volatility and capital flow shifts.
| Year | IMACEC YoY (%) | AAPL (YoY %) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -5.8 | 80.7 |
| 2021 | 11.7 | 34.0 |
| 2022 | 2.4 | -26.8 |
| 2023 | 0.2 | 48.2 |
| 2024 | 1.6 | 49.0 |
| 2025 | 2.1 | 48.5 |
Since 2020, AAPL’s annual performance has shown limited direct correlation with Chile’s IMACEC, but global growth cycles and commodity demand remain key transmission channels.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the significance of Chile’s IMACEC Economic Activity YoY turning negative?
- The negative IMACEC print for February 2026 signals a broad-based slowdown in Chile’s economy, with implications for policy and market sentiment.
- How does the latest IMACEC reading compare to recent months?
- February’s -0.1% YoY marks a sharp reversal from January’s 1.7% and the 12-month average of 1.8%, indicating a loss of momentum.
- What sectors contributed most to the February IMACEC decline?
- Mining, services, and manufacturing all detracted from growth, with mining output subtracting the largest share.
Chile’s IMACEC drop in February 2026 underscores the fragility of the current recovery and the need for close monitoring of sectoral trends.
Updated 3/2/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] Banco Central de Chile, IMACEC Economic Activity YoY, official release 3/2/2026,
https://www.bcentral.cl - [2] Sigmanomics Economic Data Database, Chile IMACEC time series, accessed 3/2/2026
February’s -0.1% YoY IMACEC reading sharply underperformed January’s 1.7% and the 12-month average of 1.8%. The index has now fallen for two consecutive months, with February marking the first negative print since October 2022. The last time the IMACEC was below zero, Chile was emerging from pandemic-era volatility.
Compared to November’s 3.2% and December’s 2.2%, the current figure underscores a rapid deceleration. The 6-month trend shows a clear loss of momentum, with the index peaking at 3.2% in November before sliding steadily.