Chile’s February Inflation Rate MoM: Price Growth Stalls at Zero
Chile’s inflation rate held steady at 0.00% month-over-month in February 2026, sharply below January’s 0.4% and the 12-month average of 0.18%. The latest data, released March 6, underscores a notable cooling in consumer price momentum.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers This Month
- Food and non-alcoholic beverages: +0.02pp
- Transport: -0.01pp
- Housing and utilities: flat
- Recreation and culture: flat
Policy Pulse
February’s 0.00% reading stands well below the Banco Central de Chile’s 0.3% MoM consensus estimate and remains under the annualized target band. The central bank’s inflation target is 3% YoY, with a tolerance of ±1 percentage point.
Market Lens
CLP-denominated assets saw limited movement after the release. The muted inflation print prompted a brief dip in short-term bond yields, as traders weighed the prospect of a prolonged pause in policy tightening. Equity markets were largely unchanged, reflecting the absence of immediate inflationary pressures.
Foundational Indicators
Recent Trendlines
- February 2026: 0.00% MoM
- January 2026: 0.4% MoM
- December 2025: 0.3% MoM
- October 2025: 0.4% MoM
- 12-month MoM average: 0.18%
Historical Context
February’s flat print is the lowest since July 2023, when monthly inflation last registered at or below zero. Over the past six months, MoM inflation ranged from -0.2% (January 2026) to 0.4% (October 2025 and January 2026), highlighting the recent volatility in price dynamics.
Data Source and Methodology
Figures are sourced from Chile’s Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas and cross-verified with the Sigmanomics database[1]. The MoM inflation rate measures the percentage change in the national consumer price index from the previous month, seasonally adjusted.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario Analysis
- Bullish (25–35%): Sustained disinflation, with MoM prints at or below 0.1% through Q2, driven by stable energy and food prices.
- Base (50–60%): Inflation returns to the 0.2–0.3% MoM range as seasonal factors and service costs normalize.
- Bearish (10–20%): Price growth rebounds above 0.4% MoM due to external shocks or renewed supply constraints.
Risks and Catalysts
Upside risks include global commodity volatility and currency depreciation. Downside risks stem from weak domestic demand and persistent slack in labor markets. The central bank’s next moves will hinge on the durability of this inflation slowdown and incoming data on core categories.
Closing Thoughts
Market Lens
Financial markets responded with restraint to February’s inflation data. The CLP held steady against major currencies, while local bond yields edged lower. Investors appear to be awaiting further confirmation of a sustained disinflation trend before repositioning portfolios.
Looking Ahead
With inflation momentum stalled, attention now turns to March data and the central bank’s policy response. The February print provides breathing room for policymakers, but vigilance remains warranted as global and domestic dynamics evolve.
Key Markets Reacting to Inflation Rate MoM
Chile’s February inflation data triggered measured responses across asset classes. Currency and equity markets digested the flat print with minimal volatility, while fixed income traders reassessed short-term rate expectations. The following symbols represent key tradable instruments with direct or indirect exposure to Chilean inflation dynamics.
- AAPL (Stock): Apple’s global supply chain and Latin American sales can be sensitive to inflationary trends in emerging markets like Chile.
- EURUSD (Forex): The euro-dollar pair often reflects shifts in risk appetite following inflation surprises in key EM economies.
- BTCUSD (Crypto): Bitcoin’s narrative as an inflation hedge draws attention during periods of unexpected price stability or volatility in Latin America.
| Year | CL Inflation MoM Avg | AAPL YoY Return |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 0.22% | 81% |
| 2021 | 0.29% | 34% |
| 2022 | 0.41% | -26% |
| 2023 | 0.18% | 48% |
| 2024 | 0.16% | 49% |
| 2025 | 0.21% | 42% |
Periods of rising Chilean inflation have coincided with increased volatility in AAPL’s returns, reflecting broader EM risk sentiment.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is Chile’s latest Inflation Rate MoM?
- Chile’s monthly inflation rate for February 2026 was 0.00%, marking a sharp slowdown from January’s 0.4%.
- Why did inflation stall in February?
- Core categories such as housing and recreation were flat, while food and transport contributed minimally to overall price changes.
- How does this affect financial markets?
- Markets responded calmly, with the Chilean peso and local bonds showing little immediate reaction to the flat inflation print.
Chile’s February inflation pause signals a pivotal moment for policymakers and investors alike.
Updated 3/6/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas de Chile, Sigmanomics database, official MoM inflation releases, accessed March 6, 2026.
February’s 0.00% MoM inflation sharply contrasts with January’s 0.4% and the 12-month average of 0.18%. The abrupt deceleration follows a period of moderate price gains, with the last negative print (-0.2%) recorded in December 2025. The current reading marks a significant break from the recent uptrend, as core categories remained subdued.
Compared to October’s 0.4% and December’s 0.3%, February’s flat result signals a broad-based easing in consumer price pressures. The trend suggests that inflation momentum has stalled, at least temporarily, as supply-side and demand-side factors converge.