Chile's Unemployment Rate Holds Steady at 8.40% in November 2025
Key Takeaways: Chile’s unemployment rate for November 2025 remained unchanged at 8.40%, matching October’s figure and slightly above market expectations of 8.30%. The rate has stabilized after a gradual decline from mid-year highs near 8.90%. This steady reading reflects persistent labor market challenges amid tightening monetary policy and external uncertainties. Forward-looking risks include potential global demand shocks and domestic fiscal constraints, while structural reforms and improving financial conditions offer some upside.
Table of Contents
Chile’s unemployment rate for November 2025 was reported at 8.40%, unchanged from October’s 8.40%, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure slightly missed the consensus estimate of 8.30%, signaling a pause in the labor market’s recent improvement. The rate remains elevated compared to the 12-month average of 8.60%, reflecting ongoing structural and cyclical pressures.
Drivers this month
- Labor force participation remained stable, limiting downward pressure on unemployment.
- Moderate job creation in services offset losses in manufacturing and mining sectors.
- Wage growth pressures and inflation expectations continue to weigh on hiring incentives.
Policy pulse
The unemployment rate remains above the Central Bank of Chile’s natural rate estimate of around 7.50%, suggesting slack in the labor market. This supports the current monetary policy stance, which has maintained restrictive interest rates to combat inflationary pressures.
Market lens
Following the release, the Chilean peso (CLP) depreciated modestly against the US dollar, reflecting investor caution. Short-term government bond yields edged higher, pricing in a slower recovery in employment.
Chile’s unemployment rate has shown a mixed trajectory over the past year. After peaking at 8.90% in June 2025, the rate gradually declined to 8.40% by November, indicating some labor market healing. However, the pace of improvement has slowed in recent months, with the rate holding steady at 8.40% in both October and November.
Historical comparisons
- November 2025: 8.40% (current)
- October 2025: 8.40% (unchanged MoM)
- September 2025: 8.60% (down 0.20 pp MoM)
- 12-month average (Dec 2024–Nov 2025): 8.60%
- Year-ago November 2024: 8.00% (up 0.40 pp YoY)
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The Central Bank of Chile has maintained its policy rate near 11.25% to tame inflation, which remains above target. Elevated borrowing costs have constrained business investment and hiring, particularly in capital-intensive sectors. Financial conditions have tightened, with credit spreads widening slightly amid global risk aversion.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with targeted social spending aimed at vulnerable groups. However, budget deficits and debt sustainability concerns limit the scope for large-scale stimulus. The government’s cautious approach tempers upside risks to employment growth.
What This Chart Tells Us
The unemployment rate’s recent plateau suggests that Chile’s labor market is facing headwinds from both domestic monetary tightening and external demand shocks. While the downward trend from mid-2025 has halted, the rate remains elevated, indicating that further policy support or structural reforms may be necessary to sustain job growth.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Chilean peso (CLP) weakened by 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, reflecting market concerns about slower labor market improvement.
Looking ahead, Chile’s unemployment rate trajectory will depend on several key factors. The baseline scenario projects a gradual decline to around 8.00% by mid-2026, assuming steady global demand and continued monetary policy normalization. However, risks remain skewed.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Stronger-than-expected global growth boosts Chilean exports and mining activity.
- Monetary policy pivots sooner, easing credit conditions and stimulating hiring.
- Structural reforms improve labor market flexibility and participation.
- Unemployment falls below 8.00% by Q3 2026.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Global growth remains moderate; inflation pressures persist.
- Monetary policy stays restrictive through early 2026.
- Unemployment rate gradually declines to 8.00%–8.20% by mid-2026.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- External shocks, such as a slowdown in China or commodity price drops, weaken exports.
- Fiscal constraints limit stimulus; monetary policy remains tight.
- Unemployment rises above 8.50% into 2026.
Chile’s labor market remains in a delicate balance. The November 2025 unemployment rate of 8.40% signals stabilization but also highlights persistent challenges. Monetary tightening and external uncertainties continue to weigh on job creation. Policymakers face the task of balancing inflation control with labor market support. Structural reforms and fiscal prudence will be key to fostering sustainable employment growth in the medium term.
Key Markets Likely to React to Unemployment Rate
The Chilean unemployment rate is a critical barometer for domestic economic health and influences several key markets. Labor market data often drive currency moves, bond yields, and equity valuations. Below are five tradable symbols historically sensitive to Chile’s employment trends:
- USDCOP – The USD/Colombian Peso pair often moves in tandem with regional risk sentiment influenced by Chilean labor data.
- BSAC – Banco Santander Chile’s stock price reflects domestic economic conditions, including employment trends.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price can be influenced by macroeconomic uncertainty and shifts in risk appetite linked to labor market data.
- CLPUSD – The Chilean Peso’s USD exchange rate is directly sensitive to employment and economic outlook.
- ENELCH – Enel Chile’s stock is a bellwether for industrial activity and employment trends.
Insight: Since 2020, the CLPUSD exchange rate has shown a strong inverse correlation with Chile’s unemployment rate. Periods of rising unemployment coincide with CLP depreciation, underscoring the peso’s sensitivity to labor market health.
FAQs
- What does the November 2025 unemployment rate indicate about Chile’s economy?
- The 8.40% rate indicates a stable but still challenged labor market, with persistent slack amid tightening monetary policy.
- How does the unemployment rate affect monetary policy in Chile?
- Elevated unemployment supports a cautious monetary stance, as the Central Bank balances inflation control with labor market recovery.
- What are the main risks to Chile’s unemployment outlook?
- Risks include external demand shocks, fiscal constraints, and slower structural reforms that could stall job growth.
Chile’s November 2025 unemployment rate of 8.40% reflects a labor market at a crossroads. While the rate has stabilized after mid-year declines, ongoing macroeconomic headwinds and structural challenges temper optimism. Policymakers and investors should monitor evolving global conditions and domestic reforms closely to gauge the next phase of employment dynamics.
Updated 12/30/25
USDCOP – Regional risk sentiment proxy
BSAC – Chilean banking sector sensitivity
BTCUSD – Macro risk appetite indicator
CLPUSD – Direct currency impact
ENELCH – Industrial and employment bellwether
Chile’s unemployment rate for November 2025 stood at 8.40%, unchanged from October’s 8.40%, and slightly below the 12-month average of 8.60%. The stabilization follows a steady decline from the mid-year peak of 8.90% in June, signaling a plateau in labor market recovery.
Monthly data from the Sigmanomics database show that the rate has hovered between 8.40% and 8.50% since September, reflecting persistent structural challenges despite easing cyclical pressures.