Colombia’s Consumer Confidence Index for January 2026: Momentum Cools, Outlook Mixed
Colombia’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for January 2026, published February 11, 2026, registered 18.2%, declining from December’s 19.9% and falling short of the 20.0% consensus estimate. The reading, while still robust compared to the 12-month average, signals a potential pause in the recent recovery trend. This report analyzes the latest data from the Sigmanomics database, contextualizes it within recent macroeconomic developments, and assesses the implications for Colombia’s economic trajectory.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
The January 2026 Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for Colombia came in at 18.2%, marking a 1.7 percentage point decline from December 2025’s 19.9%. Despite this pullback, the index remains well above the 12-month average of 7.6%, and is up sharply from the -3.8% reading seen in June 2025. Year-on-year, confidence has improved dramatically: January 2025’s CCI was negative, underscoring the scale of the rebound.
Drivers this month
- Weaker sentiment on future income and employment prospects contributed -0.9 pp to the headline.
- Household spending intentions softened, subtracting 0.5 pp.
- Perceptions of inflation and interest rates remained a drag, but less so than in prior months.
Policy pulse
The CCI’s retreat comes as Colombia’s central bank holds its policy rate steady at 9.25%, maintaining a cautious stance amid sticky inflation (5.8% YoY in January) and a still-volatile peso. The reading remains well above pre-pandemic norms, suggesting policy is not yet biting hard enough to dampen consumer optimism.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: COP/USD slipped 0.3% in the first hour post-release, while local equities were flat. The softer CCI print prompted a mild risk-off tone, with 2-year TES yields rising 4 bps as traders reassessed the pace of monetary easing.
Foundational Indicators
Colombia’s macro backdrop remains challenging but stable. GDP growth for Q4 2025 is estimated at 2.1% YoY, a slowdown from 3.0% in Q3, reflecting weaker external demand and tighter financial conditions. Inflation, though off its 2023 highs, remains above the central bank’s 3% target. Unemployment ticked up to 10.7% in January, from 10.3% in December, as labor force participation increased.
Drivers this month
- Food and energy prices stabilized, but core goods inflation persisted.
- Remittance inflows moderated, reducing a key support for household consumption.
- Fiscal consolidation efforts weighed on public sector hiring and transfers.
Policy pulse
Fiscal policy remains tight, with the government targeting a 2.8% of GDP deficit for 2026. The central bank’s cautious stance reflects concern over second-round inflation effects and external vulnerabilities, especially amid global rate volatility.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: BVC index (COLCAP) held steady, reflecting investor focus on earnings season rather than macro data. Sovereign CDS spreads widened 3 bps, signaling modestly higher perceived risk.
Chart Dynamics
Drivers this month
- Labor market softness and higher borrowing costs weighed on sentiment.
- Inflation expectations improved but remain elevated.
- External risks (e.g., commodity prices, regional volatility) capped upside.
Policy pulse
The CCI remains well above the central bank’s comfort zone, suggesting scope for further tightening if inflation persists. However, the recent dip may give policymakers pause, especially if growth slows further.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: COP/USD slipped 0.3% on the news, while 2-year TES yields rose 4 bps. The market read the data as a sign that consumer-led growth may be peaking, with implications for rate expectations and equity risk appetite.
Forward Outlook
Looking ahead, the trajectory of consumer confidence will hinge on three key factors: inflation’s path, labor market resilience, and external shocks. The base case (55% probability) sees CCI stabilizing in the 15–20% range through Q2 2026, supported by gradual disinflation and steady remittances. A bullish scenario (25%) would require a faster drop in inflation and a pickup in job creation, potentially lifting CCI above 22%. The bearish case (20%) envisions renewed external shocks or fiscal tightening, pushing CCI back toward single digits.
Drivers this month
- Global commodity prices and regional political risk remain key swing factors.
- Domestic credit growth is slowing, limiting upside for household spending.
- Fiscal space is constrained, reducing room for countercyclical support.
Policy pulse
The central bank is likely to remain on hold until clear evidence of disinflation emerges. Fiscal authorities face pressure to maintain consolidation, limiting stimulus options.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: COP/USD’s modest dip reflects market uncertainty about the sustainability of consumer-led growth. Equity and bond markets are likely to remain range-bound until clearer signals emerge from inflation and employment data.
Closing Thoughts
Colombia’s January 2026 Consumer Confidence Index signals a pause in the recovery, with sentiment cooling but still historically strong. The data suggest households remain cautiously optimistic, though macro headwinds are building. Policymakers face a delicate balancing act: supporting growth without reigniting inflation. Markets are watching closely for signs of renewed momentum—or a sharper slowdown—in the months ahead.
Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence
Movements in Colombia’s Consumer Confidence Index often ripple through local equities, the peso, and regional risk proxies. Below are five tradable symbols whose prices historically track shifts in Colombian consumer sentiment, each selected from Sigmanomics’ stock, forex, and crypto market listings. These assets are sensitive to domestic demand, monetary policy, and risk appetite, making them key barometers for investors.
- EC – Ecopetrol: Colombia’s flagship oil stock, highly correlated with domestic consumption and energy demand.
- PFB – Grupo Sura: Financial conglomerate, tracks consumer credit and retail banking trends.
- USDCOP – USD/COP: The peso’s exchange rate, a direct gauge of macro sentiment and capital flows.
- EURCOP – EUR/COP: Euro-peso cross, reflects external risk and trade dynamics.
- BTCUSDT – Bitcoin/USDT: Crypto flows often rise when local confidence dips, serving as an alternative risk barometer.
| Year | Avg. CCI (%) | USDCOP Avg. |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -18.5 | 3,750 |
| 2021 | -10.2 | 3,900 |
| 2022 | -5.7 | 4,050 |
| 2023 | 2.1 | 4,200 |
| 2024 | 6.8 | 4,050 |
| 2025 | 7.6 | 4,100 |
The table shows a clear inverse relationship: as consumer confidence improves, the peso tends to strengthen (lower USDCOP). This underscores the CCI’s value as a leading indicator for FX and risk assets.
FAQ: Colombia’s Consumer Confidence Index for January 2026
Q: What does the January 2026 Consumer Confidence Index reveal about Colombia’s economy?
A: The index fell to 18.2%, signaling cooling optimism but remaining well above historical averages, suggesting resilience amid macro headwinds.
Q: How does this reading compare to previous months and years?
A: January’s 18.2% is down from December’s 19.9% but far above the 12-month average of 7.6% and last June’s -3.8% low.
Q: Which markets are most sensitive to shifts in Colombian consumer confidence?
A: The peso (USDCOP), local equities (EC, PFB), and risk proxies (EURCOP, BTCUSDT) typically react to changes in sentiment and spending outlook.
Bottom line: Colombia’s consumer confidence remains elevated but is showing early signs of fatigue. Investors should watch for further softening as policy and external risks mount.
Author: Sigmanomics Editorial Team
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 2/11/26
- Sigmanomics database, Colombia Consumer Confidence, release 2/11/2026.
- Banco de la República (Colombia), Monetary Policy Reports, Jan–Feb 2026.
- DANE (Colombia), Labor Market and Inflation Statistics, Jan 2026.
- Bloomberg, Reuters, Market Data Snapshots, Feb 2026.
January’s CCI print of 18.2% is down from December’s 19.9% but remains well above the 12-month average of 7.6%. The index has staged a remarkable turnaround from mid-2025, when readings were negative for several months (e.g., -3.8% in June and July 2025). The November 2025 surge to 13.6% marked the start of a sharp rebound, peaking at 19.9% in December before this month’s modest pullback.
Compared to the last six months, January’s figure is the second-highest, underscoring persistent optimism despite macro headwinds. However, the sequential decline raises questions about the durability of the recovery, especially as external shocks and tighter policy begin to filter through.