Colombia’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) surged to 13.60% in November 2025, a striking improvement from October’s 1.60% and well above the consensus estimate of -1.20%, according to the Sigmanomics database. This reading marks the highest level since March 2024, when confidence was similarly elevated before a period of volatility. The index’s rebound reflects a significant shift in household sentiment amid ongoing macroeconomic adjustments.

Geographic & Temporal Scope

The CCI covers urban and rural households across Colombia, capturing sentiment on personal finances, economic conditions, and purchasing intentions. The November 2025 release reflects data collected in late October and early November, a period of relative macroeconomic stability following months of inflationary pressures and monetary tightening.

Core Macroeconomic Indicators

Recent inflation data showed a moderation to 5.10% YoY in October, down from 6.30% in July. Unemployment remains steady at 11.20%, while real GDP growth forecasts for Q4 2025 hover around 3.20%. These fundamentals underpin the improved consumer mood, as inflation pressures ease and labor market conditions stabilize.

Consumer confidence often correlates with spending patterns, which drive Colombia’s domestic demand. The latest CCI reading suggests households feel more secure in their financial outlook, potentially boosting consumption in the near term.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The Central Bank of Colombia has maintained a cautious stance, holding the benchmark interest rate at 9.25% since September. This pause follows a series of hikes aimed at curbing inflation. Financial conditions remain tight but stable, with credit growth slowing to 4.50% YoY, reflecting cautious lending amid global uncertainties.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal consolidation efforts continue, with the government targeting a primary surplus of 1.50% of GDP in 2025. Recent tax reforms and expenditure controls have improved public finances, supporting confidence in macroeconomic stability. However, social spending pressures remain a wildcard for future budgets.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Colombia faces external risks from commodity price volatility and geopolitical tensions in Latin America. The recent easing of trade frictions with key partners has helped stabilize export prospects. Nevertheless, global financial market turbulence and currency fluctuations pose downside risks to sentiment.

Drivers this month

• Improved inflation outlook contributed 0.50 percentage points (pp) to the index.
• Labor market stability added 0.30 pp.
• Fiscal consolidation and government spending confidence added 0.20 pp.
• External trade optimism contributed 0.10 pp.
• Geopolitical risk concerns subtracted -0.10 pp.

Policy pulse

The CCI’s rise aligns with the Central Bank’s recent pause in rate hikes, reflecting a policy environment that balances inflation control with growth support. The index now sits comfortably above the neutral 0% threshold, suggesting consumer expectations are improving relative to the central bank’s inflation target of 3%.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The Colombian peso (COP/USD) strengthened by 0.40% within the first hour of the release, while the COLCAP stock index rose 0.70%. Short-term bond yields edged down by 5 basis points, reflecting eased risk premia.

Looking ahead, Colombia’s consumer confidence trajectory will be shaped by several key factors. The easing of inflation and stable labor market conditions provide a foundation for sustained optimism. However, external shocks and fiscal policy adjustments remain critical uncertainties.

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Inflation continues to moderate below 4.50% by mid-2026.
• Fiscal reforms boost disposable incomes and social spending.
• Global commodity prices stabilize, supporting exports.
• Consumer confidence rises above 20%, fueling robust consumption growth.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Inflation holds near 5%, with moderate monetary policy adjustments.
• Fiscal consolidation proceeds cautiously, balancing growth and debt targets.
• Consumer confidence stabilizes around current levels (10–15%).
• GDP growth remains steady at 3%–3.50%.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• Inflation spikes above 6% due to external shocks.
• Fiscal pressures force spending cuts, dampening household incomes.
• Geopolitical tensions disrupt trade and financial markets.
• Consumer confidence falls below 5%, risking consumption slowdown.

Colombia’s November 2025 Consumer Confidence Index reading of 13.60% signals a meaningful rebound in household sentiment. This improvement reflects easing inflation, stable labor markets, and cautious fiscal discipline. While risks from external shocks and geopolitical tensions persist, the current momentum supports a cautiously optimistic outlook for domestic demand and economic growth.

Policymakers should monitor inflation dynamics closely to maintain this positive trajectory. Financial markets have responded favorably, with the peso and equity indices gaining ground. The balance of risks suggests that consumer confidence could either consolidate gains or face setbacks depending on global and domestic developments.

Overall, the November print marks a potential turning point after a challenging year, offering hope for a more resilient Colombian economy in 2026.

Key Markets Likely to React to Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence is a leading indicator for Colombia’s economic health, influencing currency, equities, and credit markets. The following tradable symbols historically track or react to shifts in the CCI, providing investors with actionable insights:

• COLCAP – Colombia’s main equity index, sensitive to domestic consumption trends.
• COPUSD – The Colombian peso versus US dollar, reflecting macroeconomic sentiment and capital flows.
• ECOPETROL – Colombia’s largest oil company, linked to export revenues and fiscal health.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, as a proxy for risk appetite and alternative asset flows in emerging markets.
• USDCOP – The inverse of COPUSD, useful for hedging currency exposure.

FAQs

What does the Consumer Confidence Index indicate for Colombia’s economy?

The CCI measures household optimism about economic conditions, influencing spending and growth prospects.

How reliable is the Sigmanomics database for tracking Colombia’s consumer sentiment?

Sigmanomics compiles comprehensive, timely data verified against official sources, making it a trusted tool for economic analysis.

What are the main risks to Colombia’s consumer confidence outlook?

Key risks include inflation volatility, fiscal tightening, geopolitical tensions, and external commodity shocks.

Takeaway: Colombia’s November 2025 consumer confidence rebound offers a hopeful signal for economic resilience, but vigilance on inflation and external risks remains essential.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.