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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ColombiaColombia Exports YoY fell to 5.9% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Colombia Exports YoY fell to 5.9% in July 2026, released September 2026, down 1.1% from June's 7.0% reading. The reading missed the 10.0% consensus by 4.1%. Exports YoY has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Exports YoY is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
5.9
Actual
10
Consensus
7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.63 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 7.5
Actual: 5.9
Error: +1.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (Colombia) was reported at 5.9% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 10% by 4.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.8%, ranging from -2.7% to 12.6% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 8.2%, down from the prior three at 8.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 5.53%) is higher than the prior year (σ 4.81%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 4.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.63%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 5, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Exports YoY - CO
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About Exports YoY — Colombia
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 5.9 %, consensus 10 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 7 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 11.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CO Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | CO | Industrial Production YoY | 4.1 | -0.7 | -1.20 | Low | |
| 15:00 | CO | Retail Sales YoY | 14.7 | 11 | 12.75 | Low | |
| 15:00 | CO | Consumer Confidence | 20.7 | 21.3 | 21.30 | Low | |