Colombia’s Exports YoY: December 2025 Release and Macroeconomic Implications
Key takeaways: Colombia’s exports contracted by 0.20% YoY in December 2025, sharply missing the 5.00% consensus and reversing November’s 11.10% surge. This marks a notable slowdown from the 12-month average of 2.30%. Weak external demand, tighter global financial conditions, and geopolitical uncertainties weigh on export growth. Monetary policy remains cautious amid inflation pressures, while fiscal stimulus is limited. The outlook is mixed, with risks skewed to the downside if global trade tensions persist.
Table of Contents
Colombia’s latest Exports Year-over-Year (YoY) figure, released on December 4, 2025, shows a contraction of 0.20%, a sharp reversal from November’s robust 11.10% growth. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, highlights a volatile export environment amid shifting global trade dynamics. The December print also missed the consensus estimate of 5.00%, signaling emerging headwinds for Colombia’s external sector.
Drivers this month
- Lower commodity prices, especially oil and coffee, reduced export revenues.
- Weaker demand from key partners such as the United States and China.
- Supply chain disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions in Latin America.
Policy pulse
The export slowdown coincides with a cautious monetary stance by Banco de la República, which has kept the policy rate steady at 9.00% to balance inflation control and growth support. Fiscal policy remains conservative, limiting stimulus that could boost export competitiveness.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Colombian peso (COP) depreciated 0.40% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting concerns over export earnings. Sovereign bond spreads widened slightly, signaling increased risk premia.
Exports are a critical driver of Colombia’s GDP, accounting for roughly 20% of economic output. The December 2025 YoY contraction contrasts with the 12-month average export growth of 2.30%, underscoring recent volatility. Historically, Colombia’s exports have fluctuated with commodity cycles and global demand shocks.
Historical comparisons
- February 2025: 0.60% YoY growth, reflecting early-year softness.
- June 2025: -6.50% YoY contraction amid global trade disruptions.
- November 2025: 11.10% YoY surge driven by temporary commodity price spikes.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
Banco de la República’s steady interest rate at 9.00% aims to tame inflation, which remains above the 3% target band. Tighter global financial conditions, including rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, have increased borrowing costs for Colombian exporters.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal discipline limits expansionary measures, with the government focusing on debt reduction and social spending. This constrains direct fiscal support for export sectors, particularly manufacturing and agriculture.
Commodity exports, which constitute over 60% of total exports, have been particularly affected by declining global prices. Non-commodity exports, including manufactured goods, showed marginal improvement but remain subdued.
This chart highlights a trend of increasing export volatility, with a recent downward shift. The data suggests Colombia’s external sector is vulnerable to global shocks and commodity price swings, requiring close monitoring in the coming months.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The COP/USD exchange rate weakened by 0.40% post-release, reflecting investor caution. Sovereign bond yields rose 10 basis points, indicating heightened risk perception linked to export earnings uncertainty.
Looking ahead, Colombia’s export trajectory faces mixed prospects. The global economic environment remains uncertain, with risks from geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. Commodity prices are expected to stabilize but not surge, limiting upside potential.
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (25% probability): Global demand recovers faster than expected, commodity prices rebound, and exports grow 4-6% YoY in H1 2026.
- Base (50% probability): Moderate global growth with stable commodity prices leads to flat to 1% export growth YoY.
- Bearish (25% probability): Prolonged geopolitical tensions and tighter financial conditions cause exports to contract 2-4% YoY.
Structural & long-run trends
Colombia’s export base is gradually diversifying beyond commodities, with increased focus on manufacturing and services. However, infrastructure bottlenecks and regulatory challenges remain hurdles to sustained export growth.
Colombia’s December 2025 export contraction underscores the fragility of its external sector amid global headwinds. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing inflation control with growth support. Export diversification and improved competitiveness will be key to mitigating future shocks.
Investors should monitor commodity price trends, global trade developments, and domestic policy shifts closely. The export sector’s performance will remain a bellwether for Colombia’s broader economic health in 2026.
Key Markets Likely to React to Exports YoY
Colombia’s export data significantly influences several financial markets. Currency pairs, sovereign bonds, and commodity-linked equities tend to track export performance closely. Below are five tradable symbols with historical sensitivity to Colombia’s exports.
- COPUSD – The Colombian peso’s exchange rate versus the USD reacts directly to export earnings fluctuations.
- ECO – An ETF focused on Colombian equities, sensitive to export-driven corporate earnings.
- ECOPETROL – Colombia’s largest oil company, whose stock price correlates with oil export volumes and prices.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reflects risk sentiment shifts triggered by emerging market export data.
- USDCOP – The inverse of COPUSD, also highly sensitive to export data and capital flows.
Exports YoY vs. COPUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, Colombia’s Exports YoY growth and the COPUSD exchange rate have exhibited a strong inverse correlation. Periods of export contraction, such as mid-2025, coincide with COP depreciation. Conversely, export surges have supported peso appreciation. This relationship underscores the peso’s sensitivity to external trade performance and global commodity cycles.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What does Colombia’s Exports YoY figure indicate?
- The Exports YoY figure measures the annual percentage change in the value of goods Colombia exports, reflecting external demand and commodity price trends.
- How does export performance affect Colombia’s economy?
- Exports contribute significantly to GDP, foreign exchange earnings, and employment. Strong export growth supports economic expansion and currency stability.
- What are the risks to Colombia’s export outlook?
- Risks include global economic slowdown, commodity price volatility, geopolitical tensions, and domestic policy constraints.
Final Takeaway
Colombia’s December 2025 export contraction signals emerging external vulnerabilities. Policymakers and investors must navigate a complex global environment to sustain growth and stability.
The December 2025 Exports YoY print of -0.20% contrasts sharply with November’s 11.10% and the 12-month average of 2.30%. This reversal signals a deceleration in export momentum after a brief rebound.
Monthly data from the Sigmanomics database reveals a pattern of volatility, with exports swinging from a -6.50% contraction in June to double-digit growth in November. The recent dip suggests external demand softness and price pressures.