Colombia Exports YoY: February’s 12.6% Leap Resets Growth Trajectory
Colombia’s export sector delivered a dramatic turnaround in February 2026, with year-over-year growth reaching 12.6%. This marks a decisive shift from January’s modest 1.3% gain and stands well above the 0.7% market estimate. The latest print is the highest since May 2025, ending a volatile stretch that saw both contractions and tepid gains across the past year.
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Oil exports +6.8pp
- Non-traditional goods +3.2pp
- Gold shipments +1.1pp
Policy pulse
Exports growth at 12.6% far exceeds the central bank’s 2026 external sector baseline, which anticipated low single-digit expansion. This outsized print may prompt a reassessment of trade and currency policy stances.
Market lens
Markets responded with a rally in the peso and a moderate uptick in local equities. The sharp rebound in exports, especially after months of stagnation, has improved sentiment around Colombia’s external accounts and reduced near-term current account concerns.Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- February 2026: 12.6% YoY
- January 2026: 1.3% YoY
- December 2025: -2.7% YoY
- November 2025: -0.2% YoY
- October 2025: 11.1% YoY
- September 2025: -0.1% YoY
Comparative trend
February’s print is the strongest since May 2025’s 12.2% surge. The 12-month average stands at 1.6%, highlighting the outsized nature of this month’s result. The prior six months saw three contractions and only two months above 2% growth.
Market lens
Exporters’ shares outperformed the broader market on the news. The data release narrowed sovereign bond spreads, reflecting improved perceptions of Colombia’s external resilience.Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (30%): Exports sustain double-digit growth through Q2, driven by oil and non-traditional sectors.
- Base (55%): Growth moderates to the 4–6% range as commodity prices stabilize and external demand normalizes.
- Bearish (15%): Renewed global headwinds or commodity price drops push exports back toward zero or negative territory.
Risks and catalysts
Upside risks include further gains in oil prices and expanded trade with regional partners. Downside risks stem from global growth uncertainty and potential supply disruptions. The central bank’s next moves will be closely watched for any policy recalibration.
Market lens
FX and rates markets have priced in reduced external vulnerability. The peso’s appreciation and narrowing bond spreads reflect confidence in Colombia’s export outlook, though volatility remains a risk.Closing Thoughts
Summary takeaways
- February’s 12.6% YoY export growth is the strongest in nine months.
- Momentum has shifted after a volatile year, with broad-based gains across key sectors.
- Markets responded positively, but future volatility cannot be ruled out.
Market lens
Investor sentiment has improved, but the sustainability of this rebound will be tested in coming months. Policy and external factors remain pivotal for Colombia’s trade trajectory.Key Markets Reacting to Exports YoY
Colombia’s export surge has triggered notable moves across asset classes. The peso strengthened, while equities with export exposure outperformed. Global investors are reassessing risk premiums and sector allocations in light of the new data. The following symbols have shown sensitivity to Colombia’s export cycle:
- AAPL – Apple’s supply chain and LatAm sales can be influenced by Colombian export trends, especially in components and raw materials.
- EURUSD – The euro-dollar pair reflects broader EM sentiment and risk-on flows tied to commodity-exporting economies like Colombia.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s correlation with EM currencies and risk assets can spike during periods of export-driven volatility.
| Year | Exports YoY (%) | AAPL (YoY %) |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 5.2 | 48.9 |
| 2024 | -3.7 | 49.0 |
| 2025 | 2.1 | 50.6 |
| 2026 YTD | 7.0 | 52.3 |
Since 2020, AAPL’s YoY performance has loosely tracked Colombia’s export cycles, with stronger export years coinciding with above-average returns for the stock.
FAQ
It signals a sharp rebound in external demand, with exports growing 12.6% year-over-year, the strongest pace since May 2025.
How does this result compare to recent months?February’s growth far exceeds January’s 1.3% and reverses a trend of weak or negative readings seen in late 2025.
What is the focus keyword for this report?Exports YoY
Colombia’s export sector has regained momentum, but the durability of this rebound will depend on global and domestic catalysts in the coming quarters.
Updated 3/3/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Economic Database, Colombia Exports YoY, accessed 3/3/26
- Banco de la República (Colombia), official trade statistics, February 2026 release
- Market data: Sigmanomics stock, forex, and crypto market listings, accessed 3/3/26
February’s 12.6% YoY export growth dwarfs January’s 1.3% and the 12-month average of 1.6%. This marks the first double-digit gain since October 2025 and reverses a string of negative or flat readings from late 2025. The volatility of the past year—ranging from June’s -6.5% to October’s 11.1%—underscores the significance of this month’s result.
Momentum has shifted decisively upward, with February’s figure nearly matching the May 2025 high of 12.2%. The chart shows a clear break from the stagnation that characterized much of the prior year.