Colombia’s ISE Economic Activity YoY: January 2026 Print Undershoots Expectations
The latest ISE Economic Activity YoY data for Colombia, released February 16, 2026, shows a marked deceleration in January. This article examines the headline figure, underlying drivers, market response, and forward scenarios, drawing on official Sigmanomics data and Banco de la República releases.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Services: +0.7pp
- Manufacturing: +0.5pp
- Construction: -0.2pp
- Retail: +0.3pp
Policy pulse
At 1.7%, January’s ISE YoY growth sits well below the Banco de la República’s 3% medium-term target for economic activity expansion. The gap has widened from December’s 2.95% reading, raising questions about the durability of Colombia’s recovery.
Market lens
Colombian equities and the peso softened on the release, reflecting disappointment versus consensus. Investors had positioned for a firmer print after December’s rebound. The underperformance relative to the 2.8% estimate[1] prompted a modest risk-off tone in local markets, with defensive sectors outperforming cyclicals.Foundational Indicators
Historical context
January’s 1.7% YoY growth marks the slowest pace since July 2025, when the index registered 2.81%. The figure is down sharply from September’s 4.33% and November’s 4.03%, underscoring a clear deceleration over the past four months. December’s 2.95% had offered a brief respite, but the latest data confirm a renewed slowdown.
Scenario probabilities
- Bullish: Activity rebounds to above 3% in Q1 2026 (20–30% probability)
- Base case: Growth stabilizes near 2% through March (50–60% probability)
- Bearish: Further deceleration below 1.5% (15–25% probability)
Data source & methodology
Figures are sourced from Colombia’s official ISE release and Sigmanomics[1]. The index aggregates real activity across services, industry, construction, and retail, seasonally adjusted and benchmarked to 2015 weights.
Chart Dynamics
Forward Outlook
Upside and downside risks
- Upside: Services sector resilience, potential fiscal stimulus
- Downside: Weak private investment, global demand softness, tighter financial conditions
Market lens
Local bond yields edged lower as growth concerns mounted. The softer print reinforced expectations for a cautious policy stance. Credit spreads widened modestly, while the peso gave up recent gains, reflecting investor unease about the growth trajectory.Policy pulse
With activity now running below target for two consecutive months, policymakers face a delicate balance between supporting growth and containing inflation. The central bank’s next moves will be closely watched for any shift in tone.
Closing Thoughts
Key takeaways
- January’s 1.7% YoY ISE growth is the weakest since July 2025.
- Momentum has faded since the September 2025 high of 4.33%.
- Market reaction was risk-off, with equities and the peso under pressure.
- Base case: growth stabilizes near 2% in the coming months.
- Risks remain tilted to the downside amid global and domestic headwinds.
Key Markets Reacting to ISE Economic Activity YoY
Colombia’s ISE Economic Activity YoY print influences a range of asset classes, from local equities to global currency pairs. The following symbols, verified from Sigmanomics, show notable sensitivity to Colombian macro data. Each is linked to its official Sigmanomics page for further reference.
- AAPL: U.S. equities often react to emerging market growth signals, with risk sentiment spilling over from Latin America.
- EURUSD: The euro-dollar pair reflects global risk appetite, which can shift on Colombian data surprises.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s volatility is occasionally amplified by EM macro shocks, including Colombian growth prints.
| Year | ISE YoY (%) | AAPL Trend |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | -6.8 | Sharp rebound post-pandemic lows |
| 2021 | 7.1 | Strong rally, cyclical outperformance |
| 2022 | 4.5 | Moderate gains, volatility rises |
| 2023 | 2.9 | Range-bound, macro headwinds |
| 2024 | 3.2 | Gradual recovery, tech leadership |
| 2025 | 3.0 | Mixed, EM data drives sentiment |
| Jan 2026 | 1.7 | Risk-off, defensive rotation |
Periods of strong Colombian activity have coincided with global risk-on moves, benefiting large-cap tech. Recent weakness has contributed to a more defensive tone in U.S. equities.
FAQ
- What is the latest ISE Economic Activity YoY figure for Colombia?
- The January 2026 print is 1.7% year-over-year, the lowest since July 2025.
- How does the recent slowdown affect Colombia’s economic outlook?
- Momentum has faded since September’s 4.33% high, raising downside risks for growth in early 2026.
- Why is ISE Economic Activity YoY important for markets?
- It tracks real activity across key sectors, shaping expectations for policy, currency, and equity performance.
Colombia’s January ISE print signals a clear loss of economic momentum, with markets responding to the downside surprise.
Updated 2/16/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- Sigmanomics Economic Activity Database, Colombia ISE Economic Activity YoY, accessed February 16, 2026.
January’s ISE YoY print of 1.7% compares to December’s 2.95% and a 12-month average of 2.98%. The latest figure is the lowest since July 2025, when the index stood at 2.81%. Over the past six months, the index peaked at 4.33% in September before trending lower in October (1.98%) and November (4.03%).
Volatility has increased: the swing from September’s high to January’s low spans 2.63 percentage points. The current reading is 1.25pp below the 2025 average, highlighting the abrupt loss of momentum.