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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Costa RicaCosta Rica Balance of Trade fell to -1,953.7M in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Costa Rica Balance of Trade fell to -1,953.7M in July 2026, released August 2026, down 416.33M from June's -1,537.37M reading. The reading missed the -1,200M consensus by 753.7M. Balance of Trade has now declined for 7 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -1,467.96M, vs -824.24M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
-1953.7
Actual
-1200
Consensus
-1537.37
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±414.46 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -1,182.85
Actual: -1,953.7
Error: +770.85
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Costa Rica) was reported at -1,953.70 million in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -1,200.00 million by 753.70 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -1,537.37 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1,591.07 million, ranging from -2,434.19 million to -490.20 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -1,629.87 million, down from the prior three at -745.10 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 604.18 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 455.98 million). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -1,260.10 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 414.46 million.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Balance of Trade - CR
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About Balance of Trade — Costa Rica
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -1,953.7 M, consensus -1,200 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -1,565.7 M. Before that (May 2026): -1,370.2 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CR Events
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:00 | CR | Unemployment Rate | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.10 | Low | |
| Friday, September 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:20 | CR | Unemployment Rate | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7.10 | Low | |