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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Costa RicaCosta Rica Balance of Trade fell to -1,565.7M in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Costa Rica Balance of Trade fell to -1,565.7M in June 2026, released July 2026, down 225.7M from May's -1,340M reading. The reading matched the -1,600M consensus. Balance of Trade has now declined for 6 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -1,244.63M, vs -614.63M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 22nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1565.7
Actual
-1600
Consensus
-1340
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±287.64 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -1,714.52
Actual: -1,565.7
Error: -148.82
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Costa Rica) was reported at -1,565.70 million in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -1,600.00 million by 34.30 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -1,340.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1,550.01 million, ranging from -2,434.19 million to -490.20 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -1,351.65 million, down from the prior three at -1,183.48 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 593.40 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 342.20 million). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -1,070.73 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 287.65 million.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - CR
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About Balance of Trade — Costa Rica
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -1,565.7 M, consensus -1,600 M. Prior reading (May 2026): -1,370.2 M. Before that (Apr 2026): -1,119 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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