The November 2025 Balance of Trade for CR recorded a deficit of -2052.80 million CRC, a modest increase from October’s -2004.60 million CRC but significantly better than the expected -2,940 million CRC. This figure reflects ongoing external pressures amid a complex global environment marked by supply chain disruptions and fluctuating commodity prices.

Geographic & Temporal Scope

The data covers CR’s trade flows for November 2025, with comparisons to monthly figures dating back to April 2025. The deficit remains concentrated in trade with key partners in North America and Asia, where demand softness and logistical bottlenecks persist. Year-on-year, the deficit has expanded by approximately 70%, reflecting structural trade imbalances and external shocks.

Core Macroeconomic Indicators

CR’s GDP growth slowed to 2.10% YoY in Q3 2025, while inflation remains elevated at 5.30%. The trade deficit contributes to downward pressure on the currency, which depreciated 1.80% against the USD in November. Export volumes fell 3.50% MoM, while imports edged up 1.20%, driven by higher energy and intermediate goods costs.

Examining the foundational indicators reveals the interplay between trade balances and broader economic conditions. The persistent trade deficit aligns with a current account shortfall of 3.80% of GDP, signaling external vulnerabilities.

Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions

The central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%, balancing inflation control with growth support. Financial conditions tightened slightly as global risk aversion increased, reflected in a 15-basis-point rise in 2-year government bond yields. The CRC’s depreciation has partially offset export price competitiveness losses.

Fiscal Policy & Government Budget

Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with a 2025 budget deficit forecast at 4.50% of GDP. Government spending on infrastructure and social programs supports domestic demand but exacerbates external imbalances by increasing import dependence. The trade deficit’s persistence complicates fiscal sustainability, especially amid rising global borrowing costs.

External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks

Heightened geopolitical tensions in key trade corridors have disrupted supply chains, particularly for semiconductors and energy products. Sanctions and trade restrictions have limited CR’s export diversification options, while commodity price volatility has inflated import bills.

Drivers this month

• Export contraction (-3.50% MoM) due to weaker demand in North America and Asia.
• Import growth (1.20% MoM) driven by higher energy prices and intermediate goods.
• Currency depreciation (CRC -1.80% vs. USD) partially offsetting export price losses.

Policy pulse

The BoT deficit remains above the central bank’s comfort zone, complicating inflation targeting and monetary policy normalization. The current rate of 4.25% reflects a cautious stance amid external headwinds and domestic inflation pressures.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The CRC weakened 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 10 basis points, reflecting increased risk premia. Breakeven inflation rates remained stable, indicating market confidence in medium-term inflation control despite trade pressures.

Looking ahead, CR’s trade balance trajectory depends on global demand, commodity prices, and domestic policy responses. Three scenarios outline potential paths:

Bullish Scenario (40% probability)

• Global demand recovers, boosting exports by 5% YoY.
• Energy prices stabilize, reducing import costs.
• Currency stabilizes, improving trade competitiveness.
• Result: Deficit narrows to -1,200 million CRC by mid-2026.

Base Case (35% probability)

• Moderate global growth with persistent supply chain issues.
• Import costs remain elevated; exports grow slowly.
• Currency volatility continues but contained.
• Result: Deficit remains near current levels (-2,000 million CRC) through 2026.

Bearish Scenario (25% probability)

• Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting trade further.
• Commodity prices spike, worsening import bill.
• Currency depreciates sharply, increasing inflationary pressures.
• Result: Deficit widens beyond -3,000 million CRC by late 2026.

Structural & Long-Run Trends

Long-term, CR faces challenges in diversifying exports and reducing import dependence. Structural reforms targeting productivity and trade facilitation are critical. The persistent trade deficit underscores the need for enhanced competitiveness and integration into global value chains.

The November 2025 Balance of Trade report for CR reveals a stubbornly high deficit, shaped by external shocks, policy constraints, and structural factors. While the slight improvement from October is encouraging, the broader trend signals caution. Policymakers must balance inflation control, fiscal discipline, and trade competitiveness to navigate risks ahead. Market participants should monitor currency movements, commodity prices, and geopolitical developments closely as they will heavily influence CR’s trade dynamics in the near term.

Key Markets Likely to React to Balance of Trade

CR’s Balance of Trade data typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to external trade flows and economic fundamentals. The following symbols historically track or react to trade balance shifts, providing useful trading or hedging signals.

• USDCAD – Reflects North American trade dynamics impacting CR’s export competitiveness.
• CRX – A key export-oriented equity index sensitive to trade flows.
• BTCUSD – Cryptocurrency often moves inversely to risk-off sentiment triggered by trade disruptions.
• EURUSD – Influences global trade financing costs and currency volatility.
• EMRG – Emerging markets ETF that correlates with global trade sentiment affecting CR.

Indicator vs. USDCAD Since 2020

Since 2020, CR’s Balance of Trade deficit has shown a moderate inverse correlation (-0.45) with USDCAD exchange rate movements. Periods of widening deficits often coincide with USDCAD appreciation, reflecting stronger USD demand amid trade imbalances. This relationship underscores the currency pair’s utility as a barometer for CR’s external trade pressures and associated capital flows.

FAQs

What is the Balance of Trade for CR?

The Balance of Trade measures the difference between CR’s exports and imports of goods and services over a specific period, indicating trade surplus or deficit.

How does the Balance of Trade affect CR’s economy?

A persistent trade deficit can weaken the currency, increase inflation, and pressure fiscal and monetary policies, impacting overall economic stability.

What factors influence CR’s Balance of Trade?

Key factors include global demand, commodity prices, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risks, and domestic policy settings.

Final Takeaway: CR’s November 2025 trade deficit remains elevated but shows signs of stabilization. Navigating external shocks and structural challenges will be crucial for restoring trade balance and supporting sustainable growth.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.