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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Costa RicaCosta Rica Balance of Trade fell to -1,119.04M in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Costa Rica Balance of Trade fell to -1,119.04M in April 2026, released May 2026, down 418.57M from March's -700.47M reading. The reading missed the -890M consensus by 229.04M. Balance of Trade has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -614.63M, vs -2,314.05M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 28th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-1119.04
Actual
-890
Consensus
-700.47
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±337.07 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -890
Actual: -1,119.04
Error: +229.04
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Costa Rica) was reported at -1,119.04 million in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of -890.00 million by 229.04 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -700.47 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1,430.26 million, ranging from -2,434.19 million to -129.00 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -745.10 million, up from the prior three at -2,226.96 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 720.22 million) is higher than the prior year (σ 106.90 million). In May readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -615.99 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 337.08 million.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Balance of Trade - CR
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About Balance of Trade — Costa Rica
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -1,119 M, consensus -890 M. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -727.6 M. Before that (Feb 2026): -626.1 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.