November 2025 Inflation Rate MoM for CV: A Data-Driven Analysis
The latest inflation rate month-over-month (MoM) for CV, released on November 17, 2025, shows a slight deflation of -0.10%, improving from October’s sharper decline of -0.40%. This report draws on the Sigmanomics database and compares recent figures with historical trends to assess the macroeconomic implications. We explore the drivers behind this shift, monetary and fiscal policy responses, external risks, and financial market reactions, providing a forward-looking perspective on CV’s inflation dynamics.
Table of Contents
The November 2025 inflation rate MoM for CV registered at -0.10%, a modest improvement from October’s -0.40% but below the 12-month average of 0.30%. This marks the third consecutive month of deflationary pressure, albeit easing. The estimate had anticipated a 0.20% increase, signaling a surprise to markets and policymakers.
Drivers this month
- Shelter costs stabilized, contributing 0.05 percentage points (pp) to inflation.
- Energy prices declined further, subtracting -0.12 pp.
- Food prices remained flat, neutral on the headline figure.
- Used vehicle prices continued to ease, subtracting -0.03 pp.
Policy pulse
The current inflation rate remains below the central bank’s 2% target, reinforcing a cautious stance on monetary tightening. The recent deflationary trend may delay interest rate hikes, with policymakers monitoring core inflation components closely.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The CVE currency depreciated 0.15% against the USD within the first hour post-release, reflecting concerns over subdued inflation. Short-term government bond yields fell by 5 basis points, signaling a mild easing in financial conditions.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide context for the inflation reading. CV’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.20%, while GDP growth slowed to 1.10% annualized in Q3 2025. Wage growth moderated to 2.30% YoY, consistent with softening price pressures.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The central bank maintained its policy rate at 3.50%, citing persistent global uncertainties and subdued domestic inflation. Financial conditions eased slightly as credit spreads narrowed by 10 basis points over the past month, supporting borrowing and investment.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal stimulus remains moderate, with the government running a 2.50% of GDP deficit in Q3. Recent infrastructure spending has been steady but insufficient to offset global headwinds. The budget outlook remains cautious amid rising debt servicing costs.
This chart reveals a volatile inflation pattern, with a strong summer peak followed by a steady decline into deflation territory. The easing deflation in November suggests stabilization but highlights ongoing risks from external shocks and domestic demand weakness.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Following the print, the CVE/USD pair weakened slightly, while 2-year government bond yields dropped from 3.60% to 3.55%, reflecting market expectations of delayed rate hikes. Breakeven inflation rates for the next 12 months fell by 8 basis points, underscoring subdued inflation expectations.
Looking ahead, inflation in CV faces mixed pressures. The base case scenario projects inflation stabilizing near zero to 0.20% MoM over the next quarter, supported by moderate demand recovery and stable energy prices. Bullish and bearish scenarios outline wider possibilities.
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (25% probability): Inflation rebounds to 0.50% MoM by Q1 2026, driven by stronger wage growth and fiscal stimulus acceleration.
- Base (50% probability): Inflation remains subdued, fluctuating between -0.10% and 0.20% MoM, reflecting balanced supply-demand conditions.
- Bearish (25% probability): Deflation deepens to -0.30% MoM amid renewed external shocks and weaker domestic demand.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Global commodity price volatility and geopolitical tensions in key trade partners pose downside risks. A potential escalation in regional conflicts could disrupt supply chains, pushing inflation lower or causing stagflationary pressures.
Structural & long-run trends
Long-term inflation in CV is influenced by demographic shifts, technological adoption, and productivity gains. The aging population may dampen demand, while digital transformation could reduce costs, exerting downward pressure on prices.
The November 2025 inflation rate MoM for CV signals a tentative easing of deflationary pressures but remains below expectations and the central bank’s target. Policymakers face a delicate balance between supporting growth and preventing entrenched low inflation. Financial markets have priced in a cautious outlook, with moderate easing in yields and currency depreciation. External risks and structural trends suggest inflation will remain subdued in the near term, with upside potential hinging on fiscal stimulus and global stability.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate MoM
Inflation data for CV typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to interest rate expectations and economic growth. The following symbols historically track inflation trends closely:
- CVEUSD – The CVE/USD exchange rate reacts to inflation surprises affecting monetary policy.
- CVFIN – Financial sector equities sensitive to interest rate changes.
- CVRE – Real estate stocks influenced by shelter cost inflation.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin as an inflation hedge in emerging markets.
- EURUSD – Euro-dollar pair reflects global risk sentiment impacting CV trade.
Inflation vs. CVEUSD Exchange Rate Since 2020
Since 2020, CV’s inflation rate MoM and the CVE/USD exchange rate have shown a moderate inverse correlation (r = -0.45). Periods of rising inflation often coincide with CVE appreciation, reflecting tighter monetary policy expectations. Conversely, deflationary episodes align with CVE depreciation, as seen in late 2025. This relationship underscores the importance of inflation data in FX market dynamics.
FAQ
- What is the current inflation rate MoM for CV?
- The latest inflation rate MoM for CV is -0.10% as of November 2025, indicating slight deflation.
- How does this inflation reading compare historically?
- It is an improvement from October’s -0.40% but below the 12-month average of 0.30%, marking continued softness.
- What are the macroeconomic implications of this inflation trend?
- Subdued inflation suggests delayed monetary tightening, cautious fiscal policy, and potential currency depreciation risks.
Key takeaway: CV’s inflation rate MoM shows tentative stabilization amid deflationary pressures, with policy and market responses signaling cautious optimism but heightened sensitivity to external shocks.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 11/17/25
The inflation rate MoM of -0.10% in November 2025 contrasts with October’s -0.40% and the 12-month average of 0.30%. This indicates a deceleration in deflationary pressures but continued softness overall. The chart below illustrates the monthly inflation trajectory over the past six months, highlighting the peak of 0.90% in August and the subsequent decline.
Key figure: The August 2025 inflation spike of 0.90% remains the highest monthly reading in the past year, driven by temporary supply constraints and energy price rebounds.