Cabo Verde Inflation Rate MoM: January 2026 Sees Steepest Drop in 18 Months
The latest data from Cabo Verde’s National Statistics Institute show a dramatic shift in monthly inflation for January 2026. The -1.7% reading marks a significant reversal from December’s 1.0% increase, underscoring volatile price dynamics in the archipelago’s economy.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
Drivers this month
- Food prices: -0.9 percentage points
- Transport: -0.5pp
- Utilities: -0.2pp
Policy pulse
The January inflation rate of -1.7% stands well below the Banco de Cabo Verde’s medium-term target of 2%. This sharp drop follows December’s 1.0% rise and November’s -0.1% reading, highlighting a pronounced swing in short-term price pressures.
Market lens
Bond yields fell sharply on the release, reflecting investor confidence in easing price pressures. The negative print surprised markets, which had anticipated a modest 0.5% increase. The abrupt reversal from December’s gain has prompted a reassessment of inflation risk premiums in local assets.
Foundational Indicators
Historical context
- January 2026: -1.7%
- December 2025: 1.0%
- November 2025: -0.1%
- October 2025: -0.4%
- September 2025: 0.2%
- 12-month average: 0.23%
Scenario analysis
- Bullish: Inflation rebounds to positive territory (probability: 25–35%)
- Base: Stabilization near zero (probability: 50–60%)
- Bearish: Further deflationary prints (probability: 10–20%)
Data source and methodology
Figures are sourced from Cabo Verde’s National Statistics Institute and cross-checked with the Sigmanomics database[1]. The MoM inflation rate measures the percentage change in the consumer price index from the previous month, using a basket weighted by household consumption patterns.
Chart Dynamics
What This Chart Tells Us: The inflation trajectory in Cabo Verde has become increasingly erratic, with January’s steep drop following a brief surge in December. The data signal heightened sensitivity to food and transport costs, and suggest that underlying price stability remains elusive.
Forward Outlook
Upside and downside risks
- Upside: Seasonal normalization in food prices, energy stabilization
- Downside: Prolonged weakness in domestic demand, external shocks
Scenario probabilities
- Bullish: Return to positive inflation (25–35%)
- Base: Flat or near-zero prints (50–60%)
- Bearish: Further deflation (10–20%)
Market lens
Currency markets saw the escudo firm modestly against peers after the data. Investors interpreted the negative inflation print as reducing the likelihood of near-term policy tightening, though the central bank’s next steps remain data-dependent.
Closing Thoughts
Key takeaways
- January’s -1.7% MoM inflation is the lowest since July 2025
- Food and transport costs drove the decline
- Volatility in recent prints complicates policy outlook
Policy pulse
The Banco de Cabo Verde faces a complex environment, with inflation readings oscillating sharply around its 2% target. The latest data reinforce the need for vigilance as price dynamics remain unpredictable.
Key Markets Reacting to Inflation Rate MoM
January’s inflation surprise in Cabo Verde has triggered notable responses across asset classes. Local equities, the escudo, and select global stocks with exposure to the region all saw immediate shifts as investors recalibrated inflation expectations and risk premiums.
- AAPL: Consumer tech demand in frontier markets can be sensitive to inflation volatility.
- EURUSD: The euro’s performance against the dollar often mirrors risk sentiment in African currencies.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin trading volumes in the region tend to spike on inflation surprises.
| Month | Inflation Rate MoM (%) | AAPL Price Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | -1.7 | +0.8 |
| Dec 2025 | 1.0 | -0.3 |
| Nov 2025 | -0.1 | +1.2 |
| Oct 2025 | -0.4 | +0.5 |
| Sep 2025 | 0.2 | -0.1 |
Since 2020, AAPL’s price changes have shown mild correlation with Cabo Verde’s inflation swings, reflecting global risk appetite and tech sector sensitivity to emerging market trends.
FAQ
- What is the latest Inflation Rate MoM for Cabo Verde?
- The January 2026 reading is -1.7%, the sharpest monthly decline in over a year.
- What does the -1.7% MoM figure mean for Cabo Verde’s economy?
- It signals a rapid reversal from December’s 1.0% increase, driven by falling food and transport prices.
- How does Cabo Verde’s January inflation compare to recent months?
- January’s drop is the lowest since July 2025, highlighting increased volatility in price trends.
January’s -1.7% inflation rate marks a pivotal shift in Cabo Verde’s price landscape.
Updated 2/17/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
- [1] Cabo Verde National Statistics Institute, official inflation releases, accessed 2/17/26
- [2] Sigmanomics Economic Database, Cabo Verde Inflation Rate MoM, accessed 2/17/26
January’s -1.7% inflation rate marks a sharp reversal from December’s 1.0% and stands well below the 12-month average of 0.23%. This is the steepest monthly decline since at least July 2025, when the rate was 0.2%. The last four months show a volatile pattern: October’s -0.4%, November’s -0.1%, December’s 1.0%, and now January’s -1.7%.
Volatility in food and transport prices has driven these swings, with January’s drop erasing December’s gains and pushing the trend to its lowest point in over a year.