CV Inflation Rate YoY: November 2025 Data and Macroeconomic Implications
The latest inflation rate YoY for CV, released on November 17, 2025, shows a notable decline to 1.60%, down from 2.20% in October. This report analyzes the recent data from the Sigmanomics database, compares it with historical trends, and assesses the broader macroeconomic context. We explore the drivers behind this shift, monetary and fiscal policy impacts, external risks, and market reactions to provide a forward-looking perspective on CV’s inflation trajectory.
Table of Contents
The inflation rate in CV for November 2025 registered at 1.60% YoY, falling short of the 2.00% consensus estimate and down from 2.20% in October. This marks the lowest inflation reading since April 2025, when inflation was also 2.20%. Over the past 12 months, inflation has fluctuated between a high of 2.80% in September and a low of 1.60% this month, indicating a recent easing trend.
Drivers this month
- Shelter costs moderated, contributing approximately 0.12 percentage points (pp) to inflation, down from 0.25 pp last month.
- Energy prices declined, subtracting around -0.10 pp from the headline rate.
- Food inflation remained stable, adding 0.20 pp, consistent with prior months.
Policy pulse
The 1.60% inflation rate sits below the central bank’s 2.00% target, suggesting some easing in price pressures. This may reduce urgency for further monetary tightening in the near term, though vigilance remains given external uncertainties.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The CVE currency weakened 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields fell by 5 basis points, reflecting market expectations of a slower pace of rate hikes.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide essential context for the inflation reading. CV’s GDP growth slowed slightly to 1.80% YoY in Q3 2025, down from 2.10% in Q2, signaling moderate economic cooling. Unemployment remained steady at 5.20%, near the central bank’s estimated natural rate.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The central bank has maintained its policy rate at 3.50% since September, following a series of hikes earlier in the year. Financial conditions have tightened moderately, with credit spreads widening by 15 basis points since July. Inflation’s recent decline may prompt a pause in further rate increases.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with the government running a 2.50% of GDP deficit in the first half of 2025. Increased infrastructure spending and social programs have supported demand, but the government signals intent to gradually reduce the deficit by 2026 to stabilize debt levels.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global commodity prices have softened amid easing supply chain disruptions. However, geopolitical tensions in neighboring regions pose upside risks to inflation through potential energy supply shocks. CV’s trade balance remains slightly negative, increasing vulnerability to external price swings.
Drivers this month
- Energy prices: -0.10 pp impact, reflecting lower global oil prices.
- Shelter costs: 0.12 pp, down from 0.25 pp last month.
- Food prices: 0.20 pp, stable month-over-month.
This chart highlights a clear easing trend in inflation, driven primarily by external commodity price declines and domestic housing cost stabilization. The reversal from summer highs suggests inflationary pressures are moderating, but vigilance is warranted given geopolitical risks.
Policy pulse
The inflation print below target supports a cautious monetary stance. The central bank may hold rates steady in upcoming meetings, balancing growth concerns with inflation risks.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The CVE/USD currency pair depreciated 0.30%, while 2-year yields declined 5 basis points, signaling market expectations of a slower tightening cycle.
Looking ahead, inflation in CV faces a mix of upside and downside risks. The baseline forecast anticipates inflation stabilizing near 1.80% over the next six months, supported by moderate domestic demand and stable food prices.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
Stronger-than-expected economic growth and wage gains push inflation above 2.50%, forcing the central bank to resume rate hikes. Commodity prices rebound amid geopolitical tensions, adding upward pressure.
Base scenario (60% probability)
Inflation remains near 1.80%, with stable energy prices and moderate fiscal tightening. The central bank maintains current rates, monitoring inflation but avoiding aggressive moves.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
Global demand weakens, pushing inflation below 1.50%. Deflationary pressures emerge from falling commodity prices and subdued wage growth, prompting potential monetary easing.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
CV’s inflation has trended downward over the past decade, reflecting productivity gains and increased integration into global supply chains. However, demographic shifts and climate-related disruptions could introduce new inflationary dynamics in the medium term.
The November 2025 inflation rate of 1.60% YoY in CV signals a moderation in price pressures after a volatile summer. While this eases immediate monetary policy concerns, external risks and fiscal dynamics require close monitoring. The central bank’s cautious stance appears justified, balancing growth and inflation risks amid uncertain global conditions.
Investors and policymakers should watch commodity markets, geopolitical developments, and domestic demand indicators closely. The inflation outlook remains finely balanced, with scenarios ranging from mild acceleration to modest deflation possible over the coming year.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
The inflation rate in CV influences multiple asset classes, including equities, forex, and cryptocurrencies. Market participants often adjust positions based on inflation surprises and central bank responses. Below are five tradable symbols with historical sensitivity to CV inflation dynamics:
- ITX – A major CV-listed industrial stock, sensitive to inflation-driven input costs and consumer demand.
- CVECVE – The domestic currency pair, directly impacted by inflation and monetary policy shifts.
- USDCVE – USD/CVE exchange rate, reflecting cross-border capital flows and inflation differentials.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as an inflation hedge and speculative asset reacting to macro uncertainty.
- FIN – Financial sector stock, sensitive to interest rate expectations driven by inflation data.
Inflation Rate YoY vs. ITX Stock Price Since 2020
A mini-chart analysis reveals a moderate positive correlation (r=0.45) between CV’s inflation rate and ITX stock price over the past five years. Periods of rising inflation often coincide with stronger ITX performance, reflecting pricing power and demand resilience. However, sharp inflation spikes tend to increase volatility, as seen in mid-2023 and late 2024.
FAQs
- What is the latest Inflation Rate YoY for CV?
- The most recent inflation rate YoY for CV is 1.60% as of November 2025, down from 2.20% in October.
- How does the current inflation reading compare historically?
- Current inflation is near the lowest level in the past 12 months, reversing a summer peak of 2.80% in September 2025.
- What are the key risks affecting CV’s inflation outlook?
- Risks include geopolitical tensions impacting energy prices, fiscal policy shifts, and global commodity market volatility.
Takeaway: CV’s inflation rate easing to 1.60% signals a moderation in price pressures, supporting a cautious monetary policy stance amid ongoing external uncertainties.
Author: Sigmanomics Editorial Team
Updated 11/17/25
The November 2025 inflation rate of 1.60% YoY in CV is down from 2.20% in October and below the 12-month average of 2.30%. This decline reverses a two-month period of elevated inflation readings above 2.50% seen in August and September.
Energy price deflation and shelter cost moderation were the main contributors to this downward shift. Food inflation’s steady contribution suggests underlying demand remains stable, but not accelerating.