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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CyprusCyprus Balance of Trade fell to -1,007M in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Cyprus Balance of Trade fell to -1,007M in April 2026, released June 2026, down 302M from March's -705M reading. The reading missed the -680M consensus by 327M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -682.86M. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -683.87M, vs -672.6M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 36 months.
Latest Release
-1007
Actual
-680
Consensus
-705
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±66.57 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -698.9
Actual: -1,007
Error: +308.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.78 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Cyprus) was reported at -1,007.00 million in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -680.00 million by 327.00 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -705.00 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -687.65 million, ranging from -1,007.00 million to -476.60 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -729.13 million, down from the prior three at -703.20 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 127.25 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 123.81 million). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -838.67 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 66.58 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 10, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Balance of Trade - CY
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About Balance of Trade — Cyprus
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -1,007 M, consensus -680 M. Prior reading (Mar 2026): -703.8 M. Before that (Feb 2026): -871.2 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.78) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.