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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Czech RepublicCzech Republic Balance of Trade climbed to -5.3K in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Czech Republic Balance of Trade climbed to -5.3K in August 2026, released October 2026, up 4.4K from July's -9.7K reading. The reading missed the -4.4K consensus by 0.9K. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 15.54K. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 3.5K, vs 16.2K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 7th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-5.3
Actual
-4.4
Consensus
-9.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.41 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -6.4
Actual: -5.3
Error: -1.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Czech Republic) was reported at -5 thousand in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of -4 thousand by 1 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of -10 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 12 thousand, ranging from -9 thousand to 30 thousand across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1 thousand, down from the prior three at 12 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 12 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 11 thousand). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 5 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 5 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade - CZ
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About Balance of Trade — Czech Republic
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -5.3 K, consensus -4.4 K. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -8.5 K. Before that (Jun 2026): 15.5 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CZ Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | CZ | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 53.5 | 53.3 | 52.45 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | CZ | Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.5 | 0.45 | Low | |
| 08:00 | CZ | Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low | |