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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Czech RepublicCzech Republic Balance of Trade fell to -8.5K in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Czech Republic Balance of Trade fell to -8.5K in July 2026, released September 2026, down 21.9K from June's 13.4K reading. The reading missed the -2K consensus by 6.5K. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 16.11K. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 12.7K, vs 19.33K in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
-8.5
Actual
-2
Consensus
13.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±6.85 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -0.7
Actual: -8.5
Error: +7.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Czech Republic) was reported at -9 thousand in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of -2 thousand by 7 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 13 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 14 thousand, ranging from -9 thousand to 30 thousand across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 6 thousand, down from the prior three at 14 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 10 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 10 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -5 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 7, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade - CZ
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About Balance of Trade — Czech Republic
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -8.5 K, consensus -2 K. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 15.5 K. Before that (May 2026): 9.9 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.47) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - CZ Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | CZ | Producer Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.35 | Low |
| 07:00 | CZ | Producer Price Index YoY | 2 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.90 | Low |
| Thursday, September 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CZ | Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | Low | |
| Monday, September 21, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | CZ | External Debt | 238.12 | 239.7 | 240.06 | Low | |