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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Czech RepublicCzech Republic Balance of Trade fell to 6.8K in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Czech Republic Balance of Trade fell to 6.8K in April 2026, released June 2026, down 23.6K from March's 30.4K reading. The reading missed the 17.6K consensus by 10.8K. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 18.66K. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 25.6K, vs 16.77K in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
6.8
Actual
17.6
Consensus
30.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.6 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 17.6
Actual: 6.8
Error: +10.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Czech Republic) was reported at 7 thousand in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 18 thousand by 11 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 30 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 16 thousand, ranging from -2 thousand to 30 thousand across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 14 thousand, down from the prior three at 24 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 10 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 11 thousand). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 21 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 7, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Balance of Trade - CZ
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About Balance of Trade — Czech Republic
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 6.8 K, consensus 17.6 K. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 31.9 K. Before that (Feb 2026): 19.3 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.66) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.