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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
Czech RepublicCzech Republic Balance of Trade climbed to 15.5K in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Czech Republic Balance of Trade climbed to 15.5K in June 2026, released August 2026, up 4.1K from May's 11.4K reading. The reading missed the 17K consensus by 1.5K. Balance of Trade has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 8.35K, vs 23.5K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 41st percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
15.5
Actual
17
Consensus
11.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±5.6 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 15.98
Actual: 15.5
Error: +0.47
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/CZK | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Czech Republic) was reported at 16 thousand in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 17 thousand by 2 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 11 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 14 thousand, ranging from -2 thousand to 30 thousand across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 11 thousand, down from the prior three at 17 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 9 thousand) is lower than the prior year (σ 10 thousand). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 24 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/CZK, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 6 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 7, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Balance of Trade - CZ
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About Balance of Trade — Czech Republic
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 15.5 K, consensus 17 K. Prior reading (May 2026): 9.9 K. Before that (Apr 2026): 6.8 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - CZ Events
| Monday, September 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | CZ | Industrial Production YoY | 4 | 5 | 5.00 | Low | |
| 07:00 | CZ | Industrial Production MoM | 1.2 | -0.1 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 07:00 | CZ | Construction Output YoY | 2 | 3.5 | 4.80 | Low | |
| 07:00 | CZ | Balance of Trade | 15.5 | -2 | -7.40 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | CZ | Unemployment Rate | 5 | 5.1 | 5.10 | Low | |